Farense vs Penafiel: Prediction & Odds (24 Oct 2026)

Liga Portugal 224 October 202617°10 km/h

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FarensePossession control

1–4

PenafielPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Farense (52%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.08 (+8 %)

1 · Farense 52%X 26%22% Penafiel · 2

52%

26%

22%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Farense vs Penafiel (Liga Portugal 2, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Farense win 52%, draw 26%, Penafiel win 22%. Expected goals (xG): Farense 1.65, Penafiel 1.10. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Farense or draw 78%, Penafiel or draw 48%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Farense – Penafiel

Erik Lindberg · 24 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

A clash of possession-oriented styles sets the stage as Farense hosts Penafiel. Both teams lean heavily on controlling the ball, hinting at a strategic and tightly contested affair. The model gives the home side a 52% chance of victory, bolstered by their slight statistical advantages across the board. With expected goals of 1.65 for Farense against Penafiel’s 1.10, the hosts have a discernible edge, albeit a modest one.

Despite their control-focused approach, Farense has yet to beat Penafiel in their recent meetings since 2023. These two draws offer a limited head-to-head sample, making current form and expected goals more predictive here. Farense holds a narrow lead in both points and expected points, yet a 1-1 draw remains the most likely outcome at 12%, just ahead of a 1-0 or 2-1 home win at 10% each.

While the nature of both teams' styles might suggest a low-scoring encounter, the model sees a 52% chance for over 2.5 goals, with both teams expected to find the net at 54%. Moreover, there's a clear value bet here: over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.05 on Betsafe and Nordicbet, offering a 7% edge. The data suggests a game that could defy the cautious possession tendencies of both teams.

For those eyeing potential value, the over 3.5 goals market at odds of 3.55 on Betsafe carries a 6% edge according to the model. It's riskier but worth considering if you're drawn to a higher payout. Yet, with Farense favored and their defense likely to stifle Penafiel, backing over 2.5 goals seems the sharper play.

Farense

Form DLDWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #8xP/match #1Points #3

Key players

Derick Theodoro Santos PoloniFxG 0.54 · xT 0.11
Cláudio Falcão SantosCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.03
Toni Herrero OlivaLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.10

Penafiel

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #2xGA #5xT #3xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Goncalo NegraoRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.16
Iano Simão da Silva ImbeneCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.24
Alejandro Carbonell VallésCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.11

Final score

1 – 4

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Farense 52% · Draw 26% · Penafiel 22%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FarenseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,48fair 7,28+3 %

Miss

Matchresultat - PenafielBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,55fair 16,27-17 %

Hit

Match prediction: Farense – Penafiel

Predicted score matrix

Penafiel →

Farense →

0–06.7%

0–16.7%

0–23.9%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.2%

1–111.9%

1–26.4%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.7%

2–19.6%

2–25.3%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–04.8%

3–15.3%

3–22.9%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.9%

4+–13.2%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,65–1,10

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@1.76

Over 2,552%

@2.08EV+7%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Farense to win52%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Farense to win52%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Leonardo Daniel de Oliveira to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Leonardo Daniel de Oliveira to score25%
Alejandro Carbonell Vallés to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.552% probability@2.08PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
Over 2.552% probability@2.05BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
Over 2.552% probability@2.05NordicbetEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Farense	X	2 · Penafiel
Betsafe	EV+ 4% 2.00	3.20	3.60
LeoVegas	EV+ 3% 1.98	3.15	3.50
Nordicbet	EV+ 4% 2.00	3.20	3.60
Pinnacle	EV+ 3% 1.99	3.46	3.86

Odds updated 24 Oct, 12:19

Odds movement

1+1 %

50 %45 %

1.97 → 1.99

X+2 %

30 %25 %

3.39 → 3.46

2+2 %

27 %22 %

3.78 → 3.86

Over 2,50 %

48 %43 %

2.07 → 2.08

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Farense 0Draw 2Penafiel 0

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Farense

Penafiel

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Farense (13–6)

Penafiel (14–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Farense

Penafiel

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Farense

Penafiel

The teams in numbers

Performance	Farense	Penafiel
Points	14	13
xPoints	13.1	12.8
xG per match	1.9	1.7
xGA per match	0.94	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.15

Playing style	Farense	Penafiel
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.54	0.44
xT per match	0.91	1.1
xTA per match	0.79	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	30	19
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.24
Entries into the box per match	13	12
Entries into the box against	9	12
Pass completion %	0.72	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.72
Passes per match	312	299
Passes against per match	288	319
Switches of play per match	38.5	23.4
Long balls per match	49	33

Set pieces	Farense	Penafiel
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.06
Corners per match	6.7	3.8
Corners against per match	4	4.1
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.55	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.45

Other	Farense	Penafiel
Throw-in control	0.78	0.74

The goalkeepers	Fabijan Buntić (Farense)	Miguel Oliveira (Penafiel)
Saves	19	19
Save %	79%	76%
xG prevented	52%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Farense

Fixtures, form & tips

Penafiel

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Farense vs Penafiel according to our model?

The model gives Farense a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Farense 52%, draw 26%, Penafiel 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Farense vs Penafiel?

The model expects 1.65 goals (xG) for Farense and 1.10 for Penafiel, 2.76 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Farense or draw (1X) 78%, Penafiel or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.