AVS vs Tondela: Prediction & Odds (25 Oct 2026)

Liga Portugal 225 October 202615°8 km/h

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AVSCounter-attacks & crosses

2–1

TondelaPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Tondela (47%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.85 (+6 %)

1 · AVS 27%X 26%47% Tondela · 2

27%

26%

47%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for AVS vs Tondela (Liga Portugal 2, Sunday, 25 October 2026): AVS win 27%, draw 26%, Tondela win 47%. Expected goals (xG): AVS 1.04, Tondela 1.34. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: AVS or draw 53%, Tondela or draw 73%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: AVS – Tondela

Anna Karlsson · 24 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Tondela's recent dominance is hard to ignore. Coming into this match with three consecutive victories, the visitors are riding a wave of confidence. Meanwhile, AVS has struggled to find their rhythm, reflected in their lower points tally and less impressive xPoints. The head-to-head record is small and thus less significant, but the patterns in form and statistics paint a clear picture.

Tondela's possession-centric approach contrasts sharply with AVS's reliance on counter-attacks and crossing. While AVS aims to exploit any lapses in Tondela’s control, the visitors have shown defensive resilience, as evidenced by their low xGA of 0.77 per match. This defensive solidity could prove crucial against an AVS side that struggles to create scoring chances, with an xG of just 0.82 per match.

Despite the home advantage, AVS is likely facing an uphill battle. The model gives Tondela a 47% probability of victory, bolstered by their superior expected goals and a clear edge in xPoints. The most probable scorelines, 1-1 and 0-1, suggest a tight contest, but the lean is towards a low-scoring victory for Tondela. The projected goals for both sides remain modest, hinting at a match that might be decided by a single moment of quality.

For bettors, Tondela's current form and statistical superiority make them the value pick to win. While both teams scoring is nearly a coin flip at 48%, the over 2.5 goals market at 43% is also worth a look, given the defensive strengths and offensive struggles involved. This match seems primed for Tondela to edge past AVS, likely by a narrow 0-1 margin.

AVS

Form DWLDW

League ranking xG #17xGA #18xT #15xP/match #18Points #12

Key players

Matheus Cardoso FranciscoRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Andrey Felisberto dos SantosCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.21
Abdoulaye Keita KeitaRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.20

Tondela

Form LLWWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #2xT #5xP/match #7Points #6

Key players

Joao AfonsoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Arjen van der HeideRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.20
José Ricardo Avelar RibeiroLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.20

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: AVS 27% · Draw 26% · Tondela 47%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - AVS FutebolBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 14,06fair 18,53-24 %

Miss

Matchresultat - TondelaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,63fair 11,32-41 %

Miss

Match prediction: AVS – Tondela

Predicted score matrix

Tondela →

AVS →

0–09.6%

0–112.0%

0–28.3%

0–33.7%

0–4+1.7%

1–09.2%

1–113.3%

1–28.6%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.0%

2–16.7%

2–24.5%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.9%

3–01.7%

3–12.3%

3–21.6%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.0-010%
4.1-09%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

1,04–1,34

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,557%

@1.85EV+0%

Over 2,543%

@1.99

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Tondela to win47%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Tondela to win47%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Rodrigo Coelho Fernandes to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Rodrigo Cunha Pereira de Pinho to score30%
Cícero Clébson Alves Santana to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.557% probability@1.85PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
1 · AVS27% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
1 · AVS27% probability@3.95NordicbetEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · AVS	X	2 · Tondela
Betsafe	EV+ 5% 3.95	3.35	1.88
LeoVegas	EV+ 1% 3.80	3.25	1.85
Nordicbet	EV+ 5% 3.95	3.35	1.88
Pinnacle	3.70	3.52	2.02

Odds updated 25 Oct, 11:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 2.19 to 1.99 (−9%).

1+7 %

31 %21 %

3.47 → 3.70

X+7 %

33 %23 %

3.29 → 3.52

2-4 %

51 %41 %

2.11 → 2.02

Over 2,5-9 %

50 %40 %

2.19 → 1.99

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Tondela come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

AVS

Tondela

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

AVS (8–7)

Tondela (8–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

AVS

Tondela

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

AVS

Tondela

The teams in numbers

Performance	AVS	Tondela
Points	9	12
xPoints	6.3	10.4
xG per match	0.82	1.1
xGA per match	2	0.77
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.58	0.11

Playing style	AVS	Tondela
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.32
Field tilt	0.33	0.64
xT per match	0.74	1.1
xTA per match	1.4	0.56
Won balls, offensive half	19	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.37
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.3
Entries into the box per match	9	14
Entries into the box against	17	9
Pass completion %	0.72	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.67
Passes per match	276	288
Passes against per match	361	281
Switches of play per match	27	27.1
Long balls per match	36	36

Set pieces	AVS	Tondela
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.01
Corners per match	2.9	5.4
Corners against per match	5.2	1.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.42	0.55

Other	AVS	Tondela
Throw-in control	0.64	0.74

The goalkeepers	Daniel Rebollo Franco (AVS)	Lucas Cañizares Conchello (Tondela)
Saves	45	8
Save %	87%	73%
xG prevented	82%	23%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

AVS

Fixtures, form & tips

Tondela

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins AVS vs Tondela according to our model?

The model gives Tondela a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AVS 27%, draw 26%, Tondela 47%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in AVS vs Tondela?

The model expects 1.04 goals (xG) for AVS and 1.34 for Tondela, 2.38 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

AVS or draw (1X) 53%, Tondela or draw (X2) 73% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.