01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Lusitania FC or draw (X2)66%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Liga Portugal 213°10 km/h
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FelgueirasPossession control2–2
LU
Lusitania FCCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Lusitania FC (36%)
Felgueiras vs Lusitania FC · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Felgueiras 34%X 30%36% Lusitania FC · 2
34%
30%
36%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Felgueiras vs Lusitania FC (Liga Portugal 2, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Felgueiras win 34%, draw 30%, Lusitania FC win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Felgueiras 1.17, Lusitania FC 1.26. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Felgueiras or draw 64%, Lusitania FC or draw 66%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Felgueiras – Lusitania FC
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The numbers tell a compelling story: Lusitania FC are carrying momentum with a seven-match unbeaten streak, compared to Felgueiras who are reeling from three consecutive losses. This contrast in form is supported by the points tally, where the visitors lead by a substantial margin—17 to 6. With Lusitania's counter-attacking prowess, they seem well-positioned to exploit Felgueiras' struggles, especially given the latter's possession-heavy but often ineffective playing style.
The expected goals paint a close, yet still telling picture. Lusitania's edge in xG at 1.5 per match overtakes Felgueiras' 0.88, while defensively, the visitors also hold a slight advantage—conceding 0.92 xGA compared to the hosts' 1.1. These metrics align with the model's lean towards Lusitania, suggesting a probable narrow victory. A 1-1 scoreline stands at a 13% likelihood, but 0-1 at 11% feels more aligned with current form.
For bettors, the over 2.5 goals market offers slight value, priced at odds 2.3 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet, despite only a 44% probability. While goals might not flow freely given the tactical setups, the value lies in the numbers—not emotion.
FelgueirasForm DWLLL
League ranking xG #16xGA #9xT #10xP/match #14Points #14
Key players
- Francisco FrancaCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.12
- Rolando António Pereira Rocha AlmeidaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
- Joao PintoCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
Lusitania FC
Form DWWWD
League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #7xP/match #3Points #1
Key players
- Arsénio Martins Lafuente NunesCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.12
- Diogo Filipe Eusébio PauloCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
- Dylan João Raymond CollardCBxG 0.23 · xT 0.10
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Felgueiras 34% · Draw 30% · Lusitania FC 36%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - LusitaniaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 13,57fair 12,53+8 %
MissMatchresultat - Felgueiras 1932Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,87fair 14,31-38 %
MissMatch prediction: Felgueiras – Lusitania FC
Predicted score matrix
Lusitania FC →
Felgueiras →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.2%
0–110.7%
0–26.9%
0–32.9%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–09.9%
1–113.4%
1–28.2%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–06.1%
2–17.6%
2–24.8%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–02.4%
3–13.0%
3–21.9%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,17–1,26
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.65
Over 2,544%
@2.27
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Lusitania FC or draw (X2)66%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- João Pedro Palma Santos to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Mario Rivas Viondi to score29%
- Francisco Corga Sousa Soares Machado to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Lusitania FC36% probability@3.55PinnacleEV+27%reference odds
- 2 · Lusitania FC36% probability@3.30BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
- 2 · Lusitania FC36% probability@3.30NordicbetEV+18%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Felgueiras | X | 2 · Lusitania FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.15 | 3.05 | EV+ 18% 3.30 |
| LeoVegas | 2.15 | 3.00 | EV+ 14% 3.20 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | 3.05 | EV+ 18% 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.22 | EV+ 27% 3.55 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 11:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Felgueiras win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 2.77 to 2.19 (−21%).
1-21 %
44 %34 %
2.77 → 2.19
X+6 %
36 %26 %
3.05 → 3.22
2+33 %
36 %26 %
2.67 → 3.55
Over 2,5-1 %
47 %37 %
2.29 → 2.27
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Felgueiras 1932 have lost 3 in a row.
- Lusitania FC are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Felgueiras
Lusitania FC
Felgueiras (5–7)
Lusitania FC (12–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Felgueiras
Lusitania FC
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Felgueiras
Lusitania FC
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Felgueiras | Lusitania FC |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 17 |
| xPoints | 7.9 | 12.7 |
| xG per match | 0.88 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 0.92 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.09 |
| Playing style | Felgueiras | Lusitania FC |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 0.86 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 275 | 267 |
| Passes against per match | 376 | 347 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.8 | 17.2 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Felgueiras | Lusitania FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| Other | Felgueiras | Lusitania FC |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Mateus Pasinato (Felgueiras) | Brian da Rocha Araújo (Lusitania FC) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 11 |
| Save % | 73% | 85% |
| xG prevented | 61% | 76% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Felgueiras vs Lusitania FC according to our model?
The model gives Lusitania FC a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Felgueiras 34%, draw 30%, Lusitania FC 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Felgueiras vs Lusitania FC?
The model expects 1.17 goals (xG) for Felgueiras and 1.26 for Lusitania FC, 2.43 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Felgueiras or draw (1X) 64%, Lusitania FC or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.