Chaves vs Vizela: Prediction & Odds (23 Oct 2026)

Liga Portugal 223 October 202613°18 km/h

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ChavesCounter-attacks & crosses

2–1

VizelaPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Vizela (41%)

1 · Chaves 31%X 28%41% Vizela · 2

31%

28%

41%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Chaves vs Vizela (Liga Portugal 2, Friday, 23 October 2026): Chaves win 31%, draw 28%, Vizela win 41%. Expected goals (xG): Chaves 1.09, Vizela 1.24. Most likely score: 1-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Chaves or draw 59%, Vizela or draw 69%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Chaves – Vizela

Oscar Nilsson · 23 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Four head-to-head clashes between Chaves and Vizela since 2023 split evenly, with each side claiming two victories. However, with only four matches as a reference, this limited sample doesn't outweigh the current form and expected goals data indicating a tilt in Vizela's favor. Despite the even head-to-head record, the underlying numbers reveal the visitors as the more robust side as they head into this encounter.

When you delve into the season's form, Vizela's advantage becomes more pronounced. They've secured 11 points compared to Chaves' mere 4, underpinned by stronger xPoints, 9.5 to 5.2, reflecting a consistent ability to outperform the hosts. Vizela's edge is also apparent in expected goals, generating 1.1 xG per match compared to Chaves' 0.74, while also being slightly tighter defensively.

The expected goals for this match (1.09 for Chaves, 1.24 for Vizela) align with the model's lean towards the visitors, suggesting a tight contest likely to be settled by a goal. Chaves' reliance on counter-attacks and crosses contrasts with Vizela's possession-based approach, potentially giving the visitors the upper hand in controlling the game's rhythm. The most probable scoreline, according to the model, is a 1-1 draw (14%), closely followed by a 0-1 win for Vizela (12%).

Bettors should note the clear value identified at odds of 2.72 for a Vizela win with both Betsafe and Nordicbet, offering an attractive 11% edge on the model's probability. With Vizela demonstrating superior form and metrics, and with the hosts struggling to assert themselves, betting on an away win provides a compelling angle in this matchup.

Chaves

Form LLWLD

League ranking xG #18xGA #12xT #15xP/match #16Points #17

Key players

Talysson Moreira ReisCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
Mamadou TounkaraCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
Andre RodriguesCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.13

Vizela

Form DWWDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #17xP/match #10Points #7

Key players

Andrea HristovCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.07
Jean Pierre RhynerCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
Bright Osuoha GodwinLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.13

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Chaves 31% · Draw 28% · Vizela 41%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - VizelaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,44fair 13,27-29 %

Miss

Matchresultat - ChavesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,06fair 16,78-52 %

Miss

Match prediction: Chaves – Vizela

Predicted score matrix

Vizela →

Chaves →

0–010.1%

0–111.6%

0–27.4%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.3%

1–113.5%

1–28.1%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.4%

2–05.8%

2–17.2%

2–24.4%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.1%

3–12.6%

3–21.6%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-112%
3.1-010%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,09–1,24

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@1.85EV+6%

Over 2,541%

@1.98

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Vizela or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Vizela or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Matías Rafael Lacava González to score16%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Wilson Tavares to score22%
Talysson Moreira Reis to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Vizela41% probability@2.81PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
2 · Vizela41% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
2 · Vizela41% probability@2.75NordicbetEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Chaves	X	2 · Vizela
Betsafe	2.38	3.20	EV+ 12% 2.75
LeoVegas	2.35	3.15	EV+ 10% 2.70
Nordicbet	2.38	3.20	EV+ 12% 2.75
Pinnacle	2.60	3.26	EV+ 14% 2.81

Odds updated 23 Oct, 11:36

Odds movement

10 %

38 %33 %

2.59 → 2.60

X+3 %

32 %27 %

3.16 → 3.26

2+1 %

37 %32 %

2.77 → 2.81

Over 2,5-2 %

50 %45 %

2.03 → 1.98

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Chaves 2Draw 0Vizela 2

Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Chaves

Vizela

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Chaves (3–8)

Vizela (7–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Chaves

Vizela

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Chaves

Vizela

The teams in numbers

Performance	Chaves	Vizela
Points	4	11
xPoints	5.2	9.5
xG per match	0.74	1.1
xGA per match	1.2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.2

Playing style	Chaves	Vizela
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.49	0.54
xT per match	0.75	0.63
xTA per match	0.9	0.77
Won balls, offensive half	26	32
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.23
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	11	10
Pass completion %	0.72	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.73
Passes per match	320	342
Passes against per match	291	301
Switches of play per match	27.7	22.8
Long balls per match	38	30

Set pieces	Chaves	Vizela
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.03
Corners per match	3.2	5.7
Corners against per match	5	3.4
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.43

Other	Chaves	Vizela
Throw-in control	0.78	0.79

The goalkeepers	João Nuno Figueiredo Valido (Chaves)	Antonio Gomis Alemañ (Vizela)
Saves	15	20
Save %	65%	77%
xG prevented	65%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Chaves

Fixtures, form & tips

Vizela

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Chaves vs Vizela according to our model?

The model gives Vizela a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Chaves 31%, draw 28%, Vizela 41%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Chaves vs Vizela?

The model expects 1.09 goals (xG) for Chaves and 1.24 for Vizela, 2.33 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Chaves or draw (1X) 59%, Vizela or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.