01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sporting CP II to win46%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Liga Portugal 211°12 km/h
Läs på svenskaSP
Sporting CP IIPossession control3–0
PortimonensePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Sporting CP II (46%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 18.00 (+415 %)
Sporting CP II vs Portimonense · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Sporting CP II 46%X 29%26% Portimonense · 2
46%
29%
26%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sporting CP II vs Portimonense (Liga Portugal 2, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Sporting CP II win 46%, draw 29%, Portimonense win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Sporting CP II 1.51, Portimonense 0.96. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Sporting CP II or draw 74%, Portimonense or draw 54%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Sporting CP II – Portimonense
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Sporting CP II's defensive solidity could be the decisive factor when they face Portimonense in an intriguing Liga Portugal 2 matchup. Despite both sides being built around possession control, the hosts have shown a knack for keeping things tight at the back, conceding just 0.75 expected goals against (xGA) per match. In contrast, Portimonense's defense has been more porous, allowing an average of 1.1 xGA. This points to an edge for Sporting not only in expected goals against but also in the overall matchup.
Offensively, Sporting CP II and Portimonense exhibit similar profiles, with the visitors nudging slightly ahead in xG per match at 1.4 compared to Sporting's 1.3. However, the home side has translated their chances into tangible points better, sitting on 15 points to Portimonense's 10. This discrepancy is partially echoed in the xPoints tally, where Sporting leads 12.4 to 10.6. Portimonense may create opportunities, but they struggle to convert those into results.
The model favors Sporting CP II with a 46% probability of winning, and the most likely scorelines further underline their advantage: a 1-1 draw at 13% and a 1-0 win at 12% are the top contenders. The chance of a 2-0 victory for Sporting stands at 10%, a reflection of their defensive and scoring capabilities. With both teams' playing styles and strengths aligning, a low-scoring affair seems probable. The over 2.5 goals probability is just 45%, reinforcing the likelihood of a tight game.
For bettors, the sharpest angle might lie with Sporting CP II's victory. Odds for their win are likely undervalued by some bookmakers, given the model's lean and the solid defensive record. While no outcome is guaranteed, the numbers suggest that Sporting's edge in defense could well translate into a narrow win, positioning them as the more reliable bet in this fixture.
Sporting CP II
Form LWWLW
League ranking xG #7xGA #1xT #12xP/match #4Points #2
Key players
- Mauro Meireles CoutoRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.13
- Rafael Ribeiro MotaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
- Rodrigo Miguel Amores DiasLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
PortimonenseForm DLLLW
League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #16xP/match #5Points #9
Key players
- Danio Mamadi DjassiLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.10
- Samuel Neves BengueCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
- Edney Henrique Santos da SilvaRBxG 0.19 · xT 0.11
Final score
3 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sporting CP II 46% · Draw 29% · Portimonense 26%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Portimonense SCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,82fair 22,30-51 %
MissMatch prediction: Sporting CP II – Portimonense
Predicted score matrix
Portimonense →
Sporting CP II →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.8%
0–17.8%
0–23.9%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–012.4%
1–112.6%
1–25.9%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.6%
2–19.3%
2–24.4%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–04.9%
3–14.7%
3–22.2%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.6%
4+–12.5%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,51–0,96
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,555%
@1.69
Over 2,545%
@2.19
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sporting CP II to win46%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Mauro Meireles Couto to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Mauro Meireles Couto to score35%
- João Vitor Xavier de Almeida to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw29% probability@18.00LeoVegasEV+415%reference odds
- 1 · Sporting CP II46% probability@2.79PinnacleEV+28%reference odds
- 2 · Portimonense26% probability@4.80LeoVegasEV+23%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sporting CP II | X | 2 · Portimonense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 12% 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| LeoVegas | 1.18 | EV+ 415% 18.00 | EV+ 23% 4.80 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 12% 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 28% 2.79 | 3.28 | 2.61 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 12:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Portimonense win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 3.78 to 2.61 (−31%).
1+40 %
51 %31 %
2.00 → 2.79
X-1 %
39 %19 %
3.32 → 3.28
2-31 %
41 %21 %
3.78 → 2.61
Over 2,5+4 %
54 %34 %
2.11 → 2.19
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sporting CP II
Portimonense
Sporting CP II (10–6)
Portimonense (6–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sporting CP II
Portimonense
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sporting CP II
Portimonense
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sporting CP II | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 10 |
| xPoints | 12.4 | 10.6 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.75 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.03 |
| Playing style | Sporting CP II | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.8 | 0.69 |
| xTA per match | 0.67 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.4 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 329 | 342 |
| Passes against per match | 264 | 356 |
| Switches of play per match | 30 | 30.7 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Sporting CP II | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 3.4 | 2.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 5.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.96 | 0.59 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| Other | Sporting CP II | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Francisco Diogo Pereira da Silva (Sporting CP II) | Eduardo dos Santos Haesler (Portimonense) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 21 |
| Save % | 73% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 34% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sporting CP II vs Portimonense according to our model?
The model gives Sporting CP II a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sporting CP II 46%, draw 29%, Portimonense 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Sporting CP II vs Portimonense?
The model expects 1.51 goals (xG) for Sporting CP II and 0.96 for Portimonense, 2.47 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Sporting CP II or draw (1X) 74%, Portimonense or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.