01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Torreense to win52%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Liga Portugal 216°14 km/h
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TorreenseBalanced & physicalvs
Amarante Futebol ClubeCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Torreense (52%)Best value by the model: 2 · Amarante Futebol Clube @ 4.73 (+5 %)
Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.
Torreense vs Amarante Futebol Clube · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Torreense 52%X 26%22% Amarante Futebol Clube · 2
52%
26%
22%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Torreense vs Amarante Futebol Clube (Liga Portugal 2, Monday, 26 October 2026): Torreense win 52%, draw 26%, Amarante Futebol Clube win 22%. Expected goals (xG): Torreense 1.50, Amarante Futebol Clube 1.02. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Torreense or draw 78%, Amarante Futebol Clube or draw 48%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Torreense – Amarante Futebol Clube
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
In a match shaped by contrasting styles, Torreense's balanced and physical approach is set to clash with Amarante's counter-attacking game plan. The hosts have a slight edge in pre-match probabilities, favored at 52% to win according to the model, while Amarante sits at 22%. The numbers frame this encounter as a tightly contested battle, with Torreense's expected goals (1.50) suggesting a slight edge in attacking prowess.
Digging into the numbers, Torreense's home advantage is underscored by their higher xG per match at 1.2 compared to Amarante's 0.8. However, defensive vulnerabilities are evident for both, with Torreense's xGA standing at 1.5. Amarante's more robust defense, yielding an xGA of 1.1, could prove vital in neutralizing Torreense's attacks. Both clubs have been neck and neck in terms of points, with Torreense edging out slightly in actual points but lagging in xPoints, where Amarante holds an advantage.
Given the playing styles and statistical profiles, a low-scoring affair is on the cards. The likelihood of under 2.5 goals stands at 54%, hinting that defenses might just have the upper hand. The most likely scorelines—1-1 and 1-0—suggest a tightly locked contest. The model leans towards Torreense winning as the most probable outcome, with a 1-1 draw being the single most likely scoreline and a narrow 1-0 win for Torreense not far behind, their physicality potentially tipping the scales.
From a betting perspective, the subtle value might lie in backing Torreense at odds reflecting their 52% win probability, particularly if bookmakers offer enticing odds around 1.90 or higher. While nothing is guaranteed, taking a position on a Torreense win aligns well with the statistical model's leanings.
TorreenseForm DLWDL
League ranking xG #10xGA #16xT #11xP/match #15Points #15
Key players
- Ianique dos Santos TavaresCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.13
- Volnei FeltesCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
- Dany JeanLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.07
Amarante Futebol ClubeForm DWLDL
League ranking xG #18xGA #6xT #17xP/match #11Points #16
Key players
- Arome Emmanuel IdacheRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.22
- Leandro Nogueira FerreiraLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.09
- Diogo Miguel Pereira CostaRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Torreense – Amarante Futebol Clube
Predicted score matrix
Amarante Futebol Clube →
Torreense →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–17.9%
0–24.2%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–011.8%
1–112.7%
1–26.3%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.1%
2–19.2%
2–24.7%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–04.5%
3–14.6%
3–22.3%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.4%
4+–12.4%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,50–1,02
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.72
Over 2,546%
@2.14
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Torreense to win52%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Alejandro Alfaro Cascales to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Alejandro Alfaro Cascales to score20%
- Gonçalo Ferreira da Cunha to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Amarante Futebol Clube22% probability@4.73PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Torreense | X | 2 · Amarante Futebol Clube |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.78 | 3.35 | 4.40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.75 | 3.25 | 4.15 |
| Nordicbet | 1.78 | 3.35 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.57 | EV+ 5% 4.73 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 11:18
Odds movement
10 %
55 %50 %
1.78 → 1.79
X+2 %
29 %24 %
3.49 → 3.57
2+4 %
23 %18 %
4.53 → 4.73
Over 2,5+4 %
48 %43 %
2.05 → 2.14
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Torreense
Amarante Futebol Clube
Torreense (7–10)
Amarante Futebol Clube (6–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Torreense
Amarante Futebol Clube
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Torreense
Amarante Futebol Clube
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Torreense | Amarante Futebol Clube |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 5 |
| xPoints | 7.8 | 8.4 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Torreense | Amarante Futebol Clube |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 0.85 | 0.65 |
| xTA per match | 0.97 | 0.56 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 321 | 264 |
| Passes against per match | 300 | 341 |
| Switches of play per match | 40.6 | 22.7 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Torreense | Amarante Futebol Clube |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 3.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| Other | Torreense | Amarante Futebol Clube |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Adriel Vasconcelos Ramos (Torreense) | Diogo Guilhermino Babo Figueiredo (Amarante Futebol Clube) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 16 |
| Save % | 68% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 37% | 33% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Torreense vs Amarante Futebol Clube according to our model?
The model gives Torreense a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Torreense 52%, draw 26%, Amarante Futebol Clube 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Torreense vs Amarante Futebol Clube?
The model expects 1.50 goals (xG) for Torreense and 1.02 for Amarante Futebol Clube, 2.51 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Torreense or draw (1X) 78%, Amarante Futebol Clube or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.