Bodrumspor vs Bandırmaspor: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig17 October 202616°3,2 mm19 km/h

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BodrumsporPossession control

2–1

BandırmasporPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Bandırmaspor (45%)

1 · Bodrumspor 27%X 28%45% Bandırmaspor · 2

27%

28%

45%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bodrumspor vs Bandırmaspor (Turkish 1. Lig, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Bodrumspor win 27%, draw 28%, Bandırmaspor win 45%. Expected goals (xG): Bodrumspor 1.08, Bandırmaspor 1.43. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Bodrumspor or draw 55%, Bandırmaspor or draw 73%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Bodrumspor – Bandırmaspor

Sofia Andersson · 17 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Bandırmaspor's sharper edge lies in their ability to convert possession into tangible results. Their xG of 1.5 per match against Bodrumspor's 0.75 highlights a fundamental difference in attacking potency. While both teams favor possession control, the visitors have shown a pivotal knack for turning control into goals, which the hosts have struggled to match. This disparity is underscored by Bandırmaspor's edge in expected goals against (xGA) as well, boasting a solid 0.96 compared to Bodrumspor's 1.3.

The small sample of two head-to-head matchups since 2024, where Bodrumspor has failed to secure a victory, offers a glimpse but should be weighed less than current form and expected goals metrics. It's clear that Bandırmaspor holds a consistent advantage in creating and preventing high-quality chances. Add to that their better actual points tally of 14 compared to Bodrumspor's 11, and the visitors appear to have an upper hand.

The model's probabilities reinforce this with Bandırmaspor favored at 45% to win, and with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 and 0-1. The likelihood of both teams scoring hovers just above the halfway mark at 51%, and with rain expected, this might suppress an already modest expected goal tally.

For punters, the real value lies in backing Bandırmaspor at attractive odds. LeoVegas offers them at 2.6, while Betsafe and Nordicbet list them at 2.57. Given the model's 45% win probability for the visitors, these odds present a value bet with a significant edge, ranging from 16% to 17%. The under 2.5 goals also looms large, reflecting the anticipated restraint on the scoreboard given the weather and tactical setups. Smart money sides with the visitors; Bandırmaspor to edge it, perhaps 1-0.

Bodrumspor

Form LWDLW

League ranking xG #19xGA #12xT #16xP/match #20Points #13

Key players

Berşan YavuzayRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
Ismail TarimCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
Fernando AndradeLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.08

Bandırmaspor

Form WDLWD

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #12xP/match #8Points #9

Key players

Enes AydınCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
Oluwatosin KehindeLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.16
Lucas Pedro Alves de LimaLBxG 0.11 · xT 0.25

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Bodrumspor 27% · Draw 28% · Bandırmaspor 45%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - BandirmasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,91fair 9,74+2 %

Miss

Match prediction: Bodrumspor – Bandırmaspor

Predicted score matrix

Bandırmaspor →

Bodrumspor →

0–08.5%

0–111.2%

0–28.3%

0–34.0%

0–4+1.9%

1–08.4%

1–112.9%

1–29.0%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.1%

2–04.7%

2–16.8%

2–24.9%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.1%

3–01.7%

3–12.5%

3–21.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-08%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,08–1,43

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.74

Over 2,546%

@1.98

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bandırmaspor to win45%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bandırmaspor to win45%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Muhammed Gümüşkaya to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Muhammed Gümüşkaya to score20%
Dean Liço to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Bandırmaspor45% probability@2.67BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
2 · Bandırmaspor45% probability@2.67NordicbetEV+20%reference odds
2 · Bandırmaspor45% probability@2.60LeoVegasEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bodrumspor	X	2 · Bandırmaspor
Betsafe	2.47	3.19	EV+ 20% 2.67
LeoVegas	2.55	3.15	EV+ 17% 2.60
Nordicbet	2.47	3.19	EV+ 20% 2.67

Odds updated 17 Oct, 12:37

Odds movement

1-4 %

39 %34 %

2.57 → 2.47

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.19 → 3.19

2+4 %

38 %33 %

2.57 → 2.67

Over 2,5-4 %

49 %44 %

2.04 → 1.95

Nordicbet · 7 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Bodrumspor 0Draw 1Bandırmaspor 1

Goals: 0–2 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bodrumspor

Bandırmaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bodrumspor (11–9)

Bandırmaspor (15–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bodrumspor

Bandırmaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bodrumspor

Bandırmaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bodrumspor	Bandırmaspor
Points	11	14
xPoints	9.9	14.3
xG per match	0.75	1.5
xGA per match	1.3	0.96
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.15

Playing style	Bodrumspor	Bandırmaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.35	0.66
xT per match	0.8	0.92
xTA per match	1.2	0.61
Won balls, offensive half	23	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.38
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.35
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	13	8
Pass completion %	0.74	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.76
Passes per match	309	422
Passes against per match	362	232
Switches of play per match	25.2	35
Long balls per match	42	43

Set pieces	Bodrumspor	Bandırmaspor
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.07
Corners per match	4.3	4.8
Corners against per match	4.3	3.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.55
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.65

Other	Bodrumspor	Bandırmaspor
Throw-in control	0.66	0.75

The goalkeepers	Diogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa (Bodrumspor)	Akin Alkan (Bandırmaspor)
Saves	30	27
Save %	81%	82%
xG prevented	79%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bodrumspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Bandırmaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bodrumspor vs Bandırmaspor according to our model?

The model gives Bandırmaspor a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bodrumspor 27%, draw 28%, Bandırmaspor 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Bodrumspor vs Bandırmaspor?

The model expects 1.08 goals (xG) for Bodrumspor and 1.43 for Bandırmaspor, 2.52 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Bodrumspor or draw (1X) 55%, Bandırmaspor or draw (X2) 73% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.