Vanspor vs Ümraniyespor: Prediction & Odds (18 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig18 October 2026

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VansporPossession control

0–2

ÜmraniyesporLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Ümraniyespor (47%)

1 · Vanspor 27%X 26%47% Ümraniyespor · 2

27%

26%

47%

Prediction summary

Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Vanspor vs Ümraniyespor (Turkish 1. Lig, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Vanspor win 27%, draw 26%, Ümraniyespor win 47%. Expected goals (xG): Vanspor 1.09, Ümraniyespor 1.44. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Vanspor or draw 53%, Ümraniyespor or draw 73%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: Vanspor – Ümraniyespor

Oscar Nilsson · 17 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Ümraniyespor comes into this clash with a 47% win probability, suggesting they are the favorites on paper despite Vanspor's slight edge in actual points. The model leans towards the visitors, largely due to their superior expected goals-against average of 1.1, indicating a robust defensive setup against Vanspor's more porous 1.6 xGA.

Vanspor's possession-focused style contrasts sharply with Ümraniyespor’s low-block and direct approach. This dynamic might see the hosts control the tempo, but struggle to break through Ümraniyespor's disciplined defense. The most probable scoreline, according to the model, is a 1-1 draw (13%), closely followed by a 0-1 victory for the visitors (11%). The small head-to-head sample since 2024 shows an even split with one win apiece, so it holds less predictive power here.

For punters, the model's lean towards Ümraniyespor aligns with the visitors' defensive resilience and Vanspor’s inefficiencies. With an over 2.5 goals likelihood of just 46%, the market seems to favor a tighter contest, reinforcing a 0-1 or 1-1 outcome as the most feasible results.

Vanspor

Form DDLLW

League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #18xP/match #14Points #17

Key players

Jurgen BardhiFxG 0.38 · xT 0.07
Ozan Can KökçüCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
Furkan OzhanRWxG 0.40 · xT 0.12

Ümraniyespor

Form LLWDL

League ranking xG #18xGA #7xT #13xP/match #13Points #18

Key players

Tomislav GlumacCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Oguz YildirimRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.15
Cebio SoukouFxG 0.22 · xT 0.02

Final score

0 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Vanspor 27% · Draw 26% · Ümraniyespor 47%

Match prediction: Vanspor – Ümraniyespor

Predicted score matrix

Ümraniyespor →

Vanspor →

0–08.3%

0–111.1%

0–28.2%

0–33.9%

0–4+1.9%

1–08.3%

1–112.9%

1–29.0%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.1%

2–04.8%

2–16.8%

2–24.9%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.2%

3–01.7%

3–12.5%

3–21.8%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,09–1,44

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

–

Over 2,546%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ümraniyespor to win47%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ümraniyespor to win47%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Melih Bostan to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Jurgen Bardhi to score26%
Andrej Đokanović to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Vanspor 1Draw 0Ümraniyespor 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vanspor

Ümraniyespor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vanspor (10–20)

Ümraniyespor (7–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vanspor

Ümraniyespor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vanspor

Ümraniyespor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vanspor	Ümraniyespor
Points	9	7
xPoints	12.1	13.5
xG per match	1.2	0.93
xGA per match	1.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.46	0.12

Playing style	Vanspor	Ümraniyespor
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.44	0.46
xT per match	0.76	0.87
xTA per match	0.89	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	21	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.2
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	9	15
Pass completion %	0.73	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.75
Passes per match	291	389
Passes against per match	388	414
Switches of play per match	17.4	27.7
Long balls per match	27	36

Set pieces	Vanspor	Ümraniyespor
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.01
Corners per match	4.3	4.1
Corners against per match	3.4	3.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.59

Other	Vanspor	Ümraniyespor
Throw-in control	0.67	0.65

The goalkeepers	Alperen Uysal (Vanspor)	Cihan Topaloglu (Ümraniyespor)
Saves	16	27
Save %	52%	73%
xG prevented	39%	48%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vanspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Ümraniyespor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vanspor vs Ümraniyespor according to our model?

The model gives Ümraniyespor a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vanspor 27%, draw 26%, Ümraniyespor 47%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Vanspor vs Ümraniyespor?

The model expects 1.09 goals (xG) for Vanspor and 1.44 for Ümraniyespor, 2.53 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Vanspor or draw (1X) 53%, Ümraniyespor or draw (X2) 73% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.