Bursaspor vs Pendikspor: Prediction & Odds (19 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig19 October 202613°8 km/h

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BursasporPossession control

2–0

PendiksporPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Bursaspor (52%)Best value by the model: 2 · Pendikspor @ 6.16 (+43 %)

1 · Bursaspor 52%X 25%23% Pendikspor · 2

52%

25%

23%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bursaspor vs Pendikspor (Turkish 1. Lig, Monday, 19 October 2026): Bursaspor win 52%, draw 25%, Pendikspor win 23%. Expected goals (xG): Bursaspor 1.58, Pendikspor 1.09. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Bursaspor or draw 77%, Pendikspor or draw 48%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Bursaspor – Pendikspor

Oscar Nilsson · 17 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Bursaspor's scoring streak is the defining feature here. Ten consecutive league matches with goals underscore their attacking consistency, which suggests they can crack Pendikspor's defense. The model shows a 52% win probability for the hosts, supported by stronger xG and xGA numbers: 1.58 expected goals versus Pendikspor's 1.09. The most probable scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, reflect a tight contest but tilt towards the home side's control.

Pendikspor's high press might disrupt Bursaspor's possession game, yet the visitors' attacking limitations—evidenced by just 1.0 xG per match—make it hard to see them dominating. The market, however, undervalues this threat with odds of 6.65 at Betsafe and Nordicbet. Given the model's 23% chance for an away win, there's a stark 54% edge, suggesting these odds are worth a closer look.

Expect a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals being a coin flip at 50%. A 1-0 victory for the hosts aligns well with the numbers, though the EV+ edge on Pendikspor at those odds is a tempting prospect for those willing to wager on a market oversight.

Bursaspor

Form WDWLW

League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #3xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Alperen BabacanCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.10
Juergen Farid Elitim SepúlvedaCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
Kelechi Promise ỊheanachọFxG 0.83 · xT 0.02

Pendikspor

Form WDDLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #11xT #7xP/match #17Points #15

Key players

Bekir KaradenizRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
Mesut OzdemirCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Kerem KalafatRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.25

Final score

2 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Bursaspor 52% · Draw 25% · Pendikspor 23%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - PendiksporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 21,34fair 16,66+28 %

Miss

Matchresultat - BursasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,20fair 8,03-48 %

Miss

Match prediction: Bursaspor – Pendikspor

Predicted score matrix

Pendikspor →

Bursaspor →

0–07.3%

0–17.2%

0–24.1%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.6%

1–112.3%

1–26.5%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.6%

2–19.4%

2–25.1%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.5%

3–14.9%

3–22.7%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.5%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,58–1,09

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@2.20EV+10%

Over 2,550%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bursaspor to win52%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bursaspor to win52%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Kelechi Promise Ịheanachọ to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Kelechi Promise Ịheanachọ to score34%
Kerem Kalafat to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Pendikspor23% probability@6.16BetsafeEV+43%reference odds
2 · Pendikspor23% probability@6.16NordicbetEV+43%reference odds
2 · Pendikspor23% probability@5.90LeoVegasEV+36%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bursaspor	X	2 · Pendikspor
Betsafe	1.43	EV+ 8% 4.31	EV+ 43% 6.16
LeoVegas	1.44	EV+ 9% 4.35	EV+ 36% 5.90
Nordicbet	1.43	EV+ 8% 4.31	EV+ 43% 6.16

Odds updated 19 Oct, 11:35

Odds movement

1+1 %

66 %61 %

1.41 → 1.43

X0 %

23 %18 %

4.33 → 4.31

2-7 %

18 %13 %

6.65 → 6.16

Over 2,5-5 %

60 %55 %

1.67 → 1.58

Nordicbet · 14 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Bursaspor have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bursaspor

Pendikspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bursaspor (20–9)

Pendikspor (12–19)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bursaspor

Pendikspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bursaspor

Pendikspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bursaspor	Pendikspor
Points	22	10
xPoints	17.4	11.3
xG per match	1.7	1
xGA per match	0.83	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.42	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.15

Playing style	Bursaspor	Pendikspor
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.33
Field tilt	0.65	0.56
xT per match	1.2	1
xTA per match	0.63	0.95
Won balls, offensive half	22	23
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.24
Entries into the box per match	14	12
Entries into the box against	8	11
Pass completion %	0.79	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.75
Passes per match	425	388
Passes against per match	259	308
Switches of play per match	29.7	33.7
Long balls per match	32	47

Set pieces	Bursaspor	Pendikspor
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.04
Corners per match	5.4	4.5
Corners against per match	3.5	4
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.64

Other	Bursaspor	Pendikspor
Throw-in control	0.72	0.76

The goalkeepers	Kerem Matışlı (Bursaspor)	Utku Yuvakuran (Pendikspor)
Saves	16	19
Save %	64%	59%
xG prevented	36%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bursaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Pendikspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bursaspor vs Pendikspor according to our model?

The model gives Bursaspor a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bursaspor 52%, draw 25%, Pendikspor 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Bursaspor vs Pendikspor?

The model expects 1.58 goals (xG) for Bursaspor and 1.09 for Pendikspor, 2.66 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Bursaspor or draw (1X) 77%, Pendikspor or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.