Iğdır vs Boluspor: Prediction & Odds (18 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig18 October 202617°6 km/h

Läs på svenska

IğdırPossession control

1–0

BolusporLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Iğdır (66%)Best value by the model: 2 · Boluspor @ 15.25 (+98 %)

1 · Iğdır 66%X 21%13% Boluspor · 2

66%

21%

13%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Iğdır vs Boluspor (Turkish 1. Lig, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Iğdır win 66%, draw 21%, Boluspor win 13%. Expected goals (xG): Iğdır 2.00, Boluspor 0.84. Most likely score: 2-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Iğdır or draw 87%, Boluspor or draw 34%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Iğdır – Boluspor

Marcus Johansson · 17 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Iğdır's possession-based approach is poised to dictate the tempo against a defensively inclined Boluspor. With the hosts riding a wave of seven unbeaten matches in the league, their control-oriented style clashes with the visitors' inclination to sit deep and strike on the break. This strategic mismatch sets the stage for a match where Iğdır are likely to find the upper hand, both in possession and on the scoreboard.

While Iğdır enjoys a substantial edge on paper, evidenced by their 20 points compared to Boluspor's mere 4, the head-to-head results tell a more balanced story. With only four encounters since 2024, this small sample sees a split of victories and a solitary draw. However, these past meetings weigh less than the current form and expected goals, which heavily favor the home side. Iğdır's expected goals tally of 2.00 dwarfs Boluspor's 0.84, underscoring their attacking prowess.

Despite Boluspor's struggles, there's a notable betting angle. The staggering odds of 13.62 for an away win with Betsafe and Nordicbet present a theoretical value, given the model's 13% chance assessment. However, with Iğdır's statistical superiority across points, expected points, xG, and xGA, the likelihood of an upset remains slim.

The model forecasts a 2-0 win for Iğdır as the most probable outcome, aligning with their superior xG and recent form. With a 54% chance of exceeding 2.5 goals, the game leans towards a slightly open affair, despite Boluspor's defensive stance. But, the sharpest angle remains the long odds for a Boluspor victory, which, though unlikely, offers curious value to risk-takers.

Iğdır

Form WWDWD

League ranking xG #12xGA #10xT #17xP/match #7Points #3

Key players

Moustapha CamaraRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.16
Serdar GürlerRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.03
Alim OzturkCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.10

Boluspor

Form LDLLW

League ranking xG #20xGA #19xT #20xP/match #19Points #20

Key players

Abdulsamet KırımLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
Muhammet Zeki DursunFxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Canberk Omer OzdemirLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Iğdır 66% · Draw 21% · Boluspor 13%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - BolusporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 64,60fair 32,26+100 %

Miss

Match prediction: Iğdır – Boluspor

Predicted score matrix

Boluspor →

Iğdır →

0–06.1%

0–14.6%

0–22.1%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.4%

1–110.1%

1–24.1%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.7%

2–19.8%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–07.8%

3–16.6%

3–22.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–06.2%

4+–15.2%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.1-011%
3.1-110%
4.2-110%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,00–0,84

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.57EV+18%

Over 2,554%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Iğdır to win66%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Iğdır to win66%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Arda Çolak to score42%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Arda Çolak to score42%
José Martín Hosue Díaz López to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Boluspor13% probability@15.25BetsafeEV+98%reference odds
2 · Boluspor13% probability@15.25NordicbetEV+98%reference odds
2 · Boluspor13% probability@11.50LeoVegasEV+49%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Iğdır	X	2 · Boluspor
Betsafe	1.14	EV+ 42% 6.62	EV+ 98% 15.25
LeoVegas	1.16	EV+ 31% 6.10	EV+ 49% 11.50
Nordicbet	1.14	EV+ 42% 6.62	EV+ 98% 15.25

Odds updated 18 Oct, 11:36

Odds movement

1-1 %

81 %76 %

1.15 → 1.14

X0 %

16 %11 %

6.62 → 6.62

2+12 %

10 %5 %

13.62 → 15.25

Over 2,50 %

65 %60 %

1.43 → 1.43

Nordicbet · 17 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Iğdır 1Draw 1Boluspor 2

Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Igdir FK are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Iğdır

Boluspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Iğdır (14–8)

Boluspor (4–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Iğdır

Boluspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Iğdır

Boluspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Iğdır	Boluspor
Points	20	4
xPoints	14.7	10.3
xG per match	1.2	0.64
xGA per match	1.2	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.23

Playing style	Iğdır	Boluspor
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.48	0.29
xT per match	0.78	0.59
xTA per match	0.84	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	23	19
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.17
Entries into the box per match	9	7
Entries into the box against	11	13
Pass completion %	0.75	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.68
Passes per match	326	254
Passes against per match	343	469
Switches of play per match	23.5	21.7
Long balls per match	35	30

Set pieces	Iğdır	Boluspor
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.07
Corners per match	4.9	1.8
Corners against per match	4.9	5.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.51	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.71

Other	Iğdır	Boluspor
Throw-in control	0.68	0.71

The goalkeepers	Jakub Szumski (Iğdır)	Angelo Tafas (Boluspor)
Saves	30	26
Save %	79%	56%
xG prevented	58%	25%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Iğdır

Fixtures, form & tips

Boluspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Iğdır vs Boluspor according to our model?

The model gives Iğdır a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Iğdır 66%, draw 21%, Boluspor 13%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Iğdır vs Boluspor?

The model expects 2.00 goals (xG) for Iğdır and 0.84 for Boluspor, 2.84 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Iğdır or draw (1X) 87%, Boluspor or draw (X2) 34% and no draw (12) 79%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.