Sivasspor vs Sarıyer: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig17 October 202614°0,1 mm28 km/h

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SivassporPossession control

1–1

SarıyerPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sivasspor (37%)

1 · Sivasspor 37%X 29%34% Sarıyer · 2

37%

29%

34%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sivasspor vs Sarıyer (Turkish 1. Lig, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Sivasspor win 37%, draw 29%, Sarıyer win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Sivasspor 1.34, Sarıyer 1.19. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Sivasspor or draw 66%, Sarıyer or draw 63%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sivasspor – Sarıyer

Erik Lindberg · 17 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Two matches between these sides since 2024 don't offer a definitive head-to-head trend. Each team has claimed a victory, leaving us with a stalemate on that front. However, it's Sivasspor's recent unbeaten streak in six league matches that stands out. This consistency at least suggests a certain resilience in their play, which might just tip the scales slightly in their favor.

In the league, Sariyer holds a slight lead in both points and expected points, with 15 and 15.6 respectively, compared to Sivasspor's 12 and 13.9. This points to the visitors being marginally the more effective side in terms of results. However, Sivasspor’s ability to find the net in eight consecutive league matches cannot be overlooked. Their scoring streak is a testament to their attacking capabilities, even if their overall defensive metrics don’t impress, evident from their expected goals against of 1.6 per match.

Both teams embrace possession control, which could see midfield battles dominate the narrative. Expected goals also paint a balanced picture: 1.34 for the hosts and 1.19 for the guests. Goals may be at a premium, with the model's most likely scoreline being a tight 1-1 draw, even though its overall lean favors a Sivasspor win. The over 2.5 goals probability at 46% indicates a low-scoring affair is more likely.

For those seeking betting value, consider backing Sivasspor to win at odds of 2.70 with Bet365. As marginal favorites, their unbeaten streak and scoring consistency present an enticing opportunity against a Sariyer side that, while efficient, might be vulnerable to a determined home performance. A 1-0 scoreline for Sivasspor could well be the outcome that pays the bills.

Sivasspor

Form WDDWD

League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #15xP/match #9Points #12

Key players

Uğur ÇiftçiLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.19
Musah MohammedCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
Rey ManajFxG 0.71 · xT -0.03

Sarıyer

Form LDWDL

League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #5xP/match #5Points #7

Key players

Esref KorkmazogluLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.18
Cebrail KarayelRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
Marcos SilvaCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.05

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Sivasspor 37% · Draw 29% · Sarıyer 34%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - SariyerBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,10fair 13,72-26 %

Miss

Matchresultat - SivassporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,00fair 10,91-27 %

Miss

Match prediction: Sivasspor – Sarıyer

Predicted score matrix

Sarıyer →

Sivasspor →

0–08.4%

0–19.1%

0–25.7%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.9%

1–010.3%

1–113.1%

1–27.6%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.1%

2–18.5%

2–25.1%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–03.2%

3–13.8%

3–22.3%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-19%
4.2-19%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,34–1,19

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.80

Over 2,546%

@1.89

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sivasspor or draw (1X)67%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sivasspor or draw (1X)67%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Rey Manaj to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Rey Manaj to score23%
Kamil Fidan to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Sivasspor	X	2 · Sarıyer
Betsafe	2.28	3.28	2.86
LeoVegas	2.30	3.20	2.85
Nordicbet	2.28	3.28	2.86

Odds updated 17 Oct, 12:37

Odds movement

1-2 %

42 %37 %

2.35 → 2.30

X+2 %

31 %26 %

3.15 → 3.20

2+2 %

35 %30 %

2.80 → 2.85

Over 2,5-4 %

50 %45 %

1.95 → 1.88

LeoVegas · 12 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sivasspor 1Draw 0Sarıyer 1

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Sivasspor are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Sivasspor have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sivasspor

Sarıyer

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sivasspor (14–13)

Sarıyer (13–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sivasspor

Sarıyer

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sivasspor

Sarıyer

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sivasspor	Sarıyer
Points	12	15
xPoints	13.9	15.6
xG per match	1.3	1.4
xGA per match	1.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.24

Playing style	Sivasspor	Sarıyer
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.34
Field tilt	0.44	0.56
xT per match	0.8	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	0.84
Won balls, offensive half	20	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.19
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	14	10
Pass completion %	0.72	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.74
Passes per match	268	406
Passes against per match	346	349
Switches of play per match	25.9	33.3
Long balls per match	34	43

Set pieces	Sivasspor	Sarıyer
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.11
Corners per match	3.8	3.9
Corners against per match	5.6	3.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.39

Other	Sivasspor	Sarıyer
Throw-in control	0.69	0.72

The goalkeepers	Arda Erdursun (Sivasspor)	Ibrahim Šehić (Sarıyer)
Saves	17	23
Save %	81%	68%
xG prevented	67%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sivasspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Sarıyer

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sivasspor vs Sarıyer according to our model?

The model gives Sivasspor a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sivasspor 37%, draw 29%, Sarıyer 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sivasspor vs Sarıyer?

The model expects 1.34 goals (xG) for Sivasspor and 1.19 for Sarıyer, 2.53 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sivasspor or draw (1X) 66%, Sarıyer or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.