01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Manisa FK or draw (1X)71%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Turkish 1. Lig13°5 km/h
Läs på svenska
Manisa FKCounter-attacks & crosses3–4
MuğlasporPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Manisa FK (45%)
Manisa FK vs Muğlaspor · Turkish 1. Lig
1 · Manisa FK 45%X 28%28% Muğlaspor · 2
45%
28%
28%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Manisa FK vs Muğlaspor (Turkish 1. Lig, Monday, 19 October 2026): Manisa FK win 45%, draw 28%, Muğlaspor win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Manisa FK 1.42, Muğlaspor 1.11. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Manisa FK or draw 72%, Muğlaspor or draw 55%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Manisa FK – Muğlaspor
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The tension between Manisa FK's counter-attacking prowess and Muğlaspor's possession-based approach stands as the defining feature of this clash. With a slight xG advantage at 1.42 to 1.11, Manisa FK is tipped as the model's lean with a 45% chance of winning, despite trailing by two points in the standings. Their ability to create chances swiftly upon regaining possession, boasting an xG of 0.28 within 8 seconds, could be crucial against a Muğlaspor team that emphasizes ball control but tends to concede 1.2 xGA per match.
The most probable outcome, according to the model, is a 1-1 draw, with a 13% likelihood. However, Manisa FK's counter-attacking style could disrupt Muğlaspor's rhythm, giving the hosts a realistic shot at a narrow 1-0 victory, pegged at 11%. Both teams have a nearly even chance of scoring, with a 51% probability for both to find the net, suggesting a balanced yet tense encounter.
While Muğlaspor's position in the league might suggest a slight upper hand, the underlying xG metrics tilt in the favor of the hosts. Manisa FK's higher xG when transitioning quickly could exploit Muğlaspor’s occasional vulnerability, particularly if Muğlaspor overcommits in possession phases. The edge in this matchup might then just hinge on how well Manisa FK can execute their fast-break strategy against a ball-dominant visitor.
In betting terms, the value clearly lies with the home side. With odds of 2.34 offered by Betsafe and Nordicbet, there is a noticeable 5% edge over the model's 45% win probability for Manisa FK. Concurrently, the under 3.5 goals market, priced at 1.35 with LeoVegas, presents a modest but reliable 1% edge with a 75% likelihood, aligning with the model's anticipation of a tighter affair.
Manisa FKForm LDLLD
League ranking xG #8xGA #15xT #10xP/match #12Points #14
Key players
- Atakan CankayaCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
- Yusuf TalumLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
- Ada IbikCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
MuğlasporForm DDDDL
League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #6xP/match #11Points #11
Key players
- Ali BarakLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.22
- Bilal CeylanRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.15
- Ahmet EnginRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.17
Final score
3 – 4
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Manisa FK 45% · Draw 28% · Muğlaspor 28%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Manisa FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,32fair 9,78-25 %
MissMatchresultat - MuglasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,66fair 16,10-40 %
HitMatch prediction: Manisa FK – Muğlaspor
Predicted score matrix
Muğlaspor →
Manisa FK →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.3%
0–18.4%
0–24.9%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–011.0%
1–112.9%
1–26.9%
1–32.6%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.1%
2–18.9%
2–24.9%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.8%
3–14.2%
3–22.3%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,42–1,11
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.88EV+1%
Over 2,546%
@1.83
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Manisa FK or draw (1X)71%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Yusuf Talum to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Engin Poyraz Efe Yıldırım to score23%
- Buluthan Bulut to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Manisa FK45% probability@2.28BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Manisa FK45% probability@2.28NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
- Under 3.575% probability@1.35LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Manisa FK | X | 2 · Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 2.28 | 3.28 | 2.86 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 1% 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.85 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 2.28 | 3.28 | 2.86 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 04:35
Odds movement
1+4 %
43 %38 %
2.19 → 2.28
X-4 %
30 %25 %
3.40 → 3.28
2-2 %
35 %30 %
2.92 → 2.86
Over 2,5+3 %
53 %48 %
1.78 → 1.83
Nordicbet · 10 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Manisa FK
Muğlaspor
Manisa FK (15–16)
Muğlaspor (9–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Manisa FK
Muğlaspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Manisa FK
Muğlaspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Manisa FK | Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 12 |
| xPoints | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.1 |
| Playing style | Manisa FK | Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.96 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.94 | 0.78 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 367 | 309 |
| Passes against per match | 335 | 360 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.5 | 21.3 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Manisa FK | Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.27 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.54 |
| Other | Manisa FK | Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Vedat Karakuş (Manisa FK) | Ekrem Kilicarslan (Muğlaspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 20 |
| Save % | 57% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 26% | 49% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Sivasspor – Sarıyer17 October 2026
- Bodrumspor – Bandırmaspor17 October 2026
- Vanspor – Ümraniyespor18 October 2026
- Kayserispor – Batman Petrolspor18 October 2026
- Iğdır – Boluspor18 October 2026
- Istanbulspor – Antalyaspor18 October 2026
- Bursaspor – Pendikspor19 October 2026
- Esenler Erokspor – Mardin 196919 October 2026
- Fatih Karagümrük – Ankara Keçiörengücü19 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Manisa FK vs Muğlaspor according to our model?
The model gives Manisa FK a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Manisa FK 45%, draw 28%, Muğlaspor 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Manisa FK vs Muğlaspor?
The model expects 1.42 goals (xG) for Manisa FK and 1.11 for Muğlaspor, 2.53 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Manisa FK or draw (1X) 72%, Muğlaspor or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.