01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Esenler Erokspor to win52%
- Under 3.5 goals80%
Turkish 1. Lig15°16 km/h
Läs på svenska
Esenler EroksporPossession & high press4–2
MA
Mardin 1969Low block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Esenler Erokspor (52%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 11.00 (+17 %)
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 · Turkish 1. Lig
1 · Esenler Erokspor 52%X 25%23% Mardin 1969 · 2
52%
25%
23%
Prediction summary
Final score 4–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 (Turkish 1. Lig, Monday, 19 October 2026): Esenler Erokspor win 52%, draw 25%, Mardin 1969 win 23%. Expected goals (xG): Esenler Erokspor 1.33, Mardin 1969 0.94. Most likely score: 1-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%. Double chance: Esenler Erokspor or draw 77%, Mardin 1969 or draw 48%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Esenler Erokspor – Mardin 1969
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Esenler Erokspor's high press and possession style will clash against Mardin 1969's low defensive setup and direct play. With the hosts pushing forward, expect the visitors to absorb pressure and seek opportunities on the counterattack. This tactical contrast sets the stage for a tightly contested match where space will be at a premium.
Despite Esenler's home advantage, the numbers reveal a balanced confrontation. The model gives Esenler a 52% chance of winning, supported by their expected 1.33 goals compared to Mardin's 0.94. However, the visitors boast a better point tally of 18 against Esenler's 9 and also edge them in expected points, indicating they've been more efficient with their chances. This efficiency might give Mardin a fighting chance, even if the model doesn't favor them.
With a low 40% probability for over 2.5 goals, this encounter is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair. The most probable scorelines of 1-0 and 1-1 reflect a cautious approach, with both teams likely to prioritize defensive solidity. Esenler's slightly better expected goals against (xGA) of 1.0 suggests they may be more adept at keeping the visitors out, which could tilt the balance in their favor.
The sharpest angle here lies in the value on unders, particularly the under 0.5 goals at odds of 11.0 with Betsafe and Nordicbet. Rated at 11% by the model, this bet offers a 17% edge, presenting a lucrative opportunity for those anticipating a goalless stalemate. For a slightly less risky approach, the under 1.5 goals at odds of 3.36 with Betsafe also provides value, as the model rates this outcome at 33%, presenting a 12% edge.
Esenler EroksporForm LDLWD
League ranking xG #16xGA #4xT #1xP/match #18Points #16
Key players
- Bahadır ÖztürkCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
- Guélor Kanga KakuCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.20
- Hayrullah BilazerRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.21
Mardin 1969
Form WLLWW
League ranking xG #10xGA #6xT #14xP/match #4Points #5
Key players
- Emre TaşdemirLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.37
- Tonio TeklicRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.11
- Zdravko Minchev DimitrovLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.18
Final score
4 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Esenler Erokspor 52% · Draw 25% · Mardin 1969 23%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - EroksporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,05fair 11,93-41 %
HitMatchresultat - Mardin 1969 SporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,16fair 23,60-48 %
MissMatch prediction: Esenler Erokspor – Mardin 1969
Predicted score matrix
Mardin 1969 →
Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.7%
0–19.3%
0–24.5%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–013.4%
1–113.3%
1–26.1%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.2%
2–18.6%
2–24.0%
2–31.3%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–04.1%
3–13.8%
3–21.8%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–11.7%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.1-113%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.2-09%
Expected goals
1,33–0,94
Both teams to score
45%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+8%
Under 2,560%
@1.80EV+8%
Over 2,540%
@1.89
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Esenler Erokspor to win52%
- Under 2.5 goals60%
- Braian José Samudio Segovia to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score45%
- Over 2.5 goals40%
- Braian José Samudio Segovia to score31%
- Mustafa Şengül to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.511% probability@11.00BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
- Under 0.511% probability@11.00NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
- Under 1.533% probability@3.30BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Esenler Erokspor | X | 2 · Mardin 1969 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 4% 2.00 | 3.29 | 3.48 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 5% 2.02 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 4% 2.00 | 3.29 | 3.48 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 12:35
Odds movement
1+1 %
48 %43 %
1.99 → 2.00
X-3 %
30 %25 %
3.38 → 3.29
2+3 %
29 %24 %
3.38 → 3.48
Over 2,5-3 %
51 %46 %
1.95 → 1.89
Nordicbet · 9 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Esenler Erokspor
Mardin 1969
Esenler Erokspor (6–11)
Mardin 1969 (12–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Esenler Erokspor
Mardin 1969
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Esenler Erokspor
Mardin 1969
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Esenler Erokspor | Mardin 1969 |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 18 |
| xPoints | 10.3 | 15.7 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Esenler Erokspor | Mardin 1969 |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.68 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 0.86 |
| xTA per match | 0.7 | 0.98 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 411 | 257 |
| Passes against per match | 289 | 393 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.4 | 25.9 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Esenler Erokspor | Mardin 1969 |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 3.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| Other | Esenler Erokspor | Mardin 1969 |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Erdem Canpolat (Esenler Erokspor) | Erce Kardesler (Mardin 1969) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 32 |
| Save % | 74% | 84% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 57% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Sivasspor – Sarıyer17 October 2026
- Bodrumspor – Bandırmaspor17 October 2026
- Vanspor – Ümraniyespor18 October 2026
- Kayserispor – Batman Petrolspor18 October 2026
- Iğdır – Boluspor18 October 2026
- Istanbulspor – Antalyaspor18 October 2026
- Bursaspor – Pendikspor19 October 2026
- Manisa FK – Muğlaspor19 October 2026
- Fatih Karagümrük – Ankara Keçiörengücü19 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 according to our model?
The model gives Esenler Erokspor a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Esenler Erokspor 52%, draw 25%, Mardin 1969 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969?
The model expects 1.33 goals (xG) for Esenler Erokspor and 0.94 for Mardin 1969, 2.27 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Esenler Erokspor or draw (1X) 77%, Mardin 1969 or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.