Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankara Keçiörengücü: Prediction & Odds (19 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig19 October 202615°16 km/h

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Fatih KaragümrükPossession & high press

1–2

Ankara KeçiörengücüPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Fatih Karagümrük (43%)

1 · Fatih Karagümrük 43%X 27%30% Ankara Keçiörengücü · 2

43%

27%

30%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankara Keçiörengücü (Turkish 1. Lig, Monday, 19 October 2026): Fatih Karagümrük win 43%, draw 27%, Ankara Keçiörengücü win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Fatih Karagümrük 1.50, Ankara Keçiörengücü 1.28. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Fatih Karagümrük or draw 70%, Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw 57%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: Fatih Karagümrük – Ankara Keçiörengücü

Anna Karlsson · 17 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

FAKTA do not mention any bookmaker odds. The claim "Bet365 offers Ankara Keçiörengücü at 3.40" is unsupported and should be removed.

Corrected text:

In football, every pattern tells a story, and this matchup between Fatih Karagümrük and Ankara Keçiörengücü is no exception. The home side has enjoyed a perfect head-to-head record against the visitors in the two matches they've played since 2024. However, two encounters is a small sample size, and recent form tips the scales in Ankara's favor. The visitors are riding a nine-match unbeaten streak in the league and have a slight edge in expected goals per game, suggesting a more clinical approach in the final third.

Despite Fatih Karagümrük's historical strength at home, winning 56% of their matches, this game feels like it could buck the trend. Both sides play a possession-based game, but Karagümrük's reliance on a high press might leave them vulnerable to Ankara's more controlled possession style. This tactical clash could serve as the pivot point of the contest. With Fatih Karagümrük posting an expected goals tally of 1.50 against Ankara's 1.28, the model leans slightly towards the hosts, but the visitors' unbeaten run shouldn't be underestimated.

The most likely scorelines—1-1, 2-1, and 1-0—reflect a tight affair, with the model giving a slight nod to a low-scoring game. Yet, the over 2.5 goals probability stands at 53%, and both teams to score at 57%, hinting at the potential for fireworks. Ankara's edge in xPoints (17.8 to Karagümrük's 13.5) and offensive output (1.6 xG per match) suggests they could exploit any lapse in the host's defensive setup.

For bettors, the odds are intriguing. Fatih Karagümrük is the model's pick with a 43% chance of victory, but Ankara's form and expected goals advantage present a compelling case for those who believe the visitors can extend their unbeaten run.

Fatih Karagümrük

Form LDWDL

League ranking xG #9xGA #13xT #2xP/match #10Points #10

Key players

Anıl Yiğit ÇınarCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Davide BiraschiCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
Daniele VerdeRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.21

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Form WDDWD

League ranking xG #4xGA #9xT #11xP/match #2Points #6

Key players

Mame DioufFxG 0.39 · xT 0.04
Francis EzehLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.17
Wellington Ferreira NascimentoCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.09

Final score

1 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 43% · Draw 27% · Ankara Keçiörengücü 30%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Fatih KaragümrükBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,93fair 8,46-18 %

Miss

Matchresultat - KeciörengücüBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,09fair 11,51-21 %

Miss

Match prediction: Fatih Karagümrük – Ankara Keçiörengücü

Predicted score matrix

Ankara Keçiörengücü →

Fatih Karagümrük →

0–06.5%

0–17.6%

0–25.1%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.9%

1–08.9%

1–112.2%

1–27.6%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.9%

2–18.9%

2–25.7%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.0%

3–03.5%

3–14.5%

3–22.9%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,50–1,28

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@1.98

Over 2,553%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Emre Akbaba to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Emre Akbaba to score29%
İshak Karaoğul to be booked24%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Fatih Karagümrük	X	2 · Ankara Keçiörengücü
Betsafe	2.24	3.38	2.86
LeoVegas	2.30	3.35	2.75
Nordicbet	2.24	3.38	2.86

Odds updated 19 Oct, 13:35

Odds movement

1-6 %

42 %37 %

2.39 → 2.24

X-3 %

30 %25 %

3.49 → 3.38

2+11 %

36 %31 %

2.58 → 2.86

Over 2,5+4 %

56 %51 %

1.68 → 1.75

Nordicbet · 17 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Fatih Karagümrük 2Draw 0Ankara Keçiörengücü 0

Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Ankara Keciorengucu are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
Fatih Karagumruk win 56% of their home matches all-time (25 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fatih Karagümrük

Ankara Keçiörengücü

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fatih Karagümrük (13–13)

Ankara Keçiörengücü (19–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fatih Karagümrük

Ankara Keçiörengücü

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fatih Karagümrük

Ankara Keçiörengücü

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fatih Karagümrük	Ankara Keçiörengücü
Points	13	17
xPoints	13.5	17.8
xG per match	1.3	1.6
xGA per match	1.3	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.13

Playing style	Fatih Karagümrük	Ankara Keçiörengücü
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.34
Field tilt	0.54	0.45
xT per match	1.4	0.92
xTA per match	1.1	1
Won balls, offensive half	26	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.19
Entries into the box per match	13	10
Entries into the box against	12	14
Pass completion %	0.76	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.73
Passes per match	335	318
Passes against per match	352	377
Switches of play per match	27.5	24.8
Long balls per match	38	37

Set pieces	Fatih Karagümrük	Ankara Keçiörengücü
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.06
Corners per match	4	3.7
Corners against per match	5.8	5.2
xG per corner	0.05	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.48

Other	Fatih Karagümrük	Ankara Keçiörengücü
Throw-in control	0.71	0.69

The goalkeepers	Marco Silvestri (Fatih Karagümrük)	Mehmet Erdogan (Ankara Keçiörengücü)
Saves	28	14
Save %	70%	88%
xG prevented	67%	86%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fatih Karagümrük

Fixtures, form & tips

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankara Keçiörengücü according to our model?

The model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fatih Karagümrük 43%, draw 27%, Ankara Keçiörengücü 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankara Keçiörengücü?

The model expects 1.50 goals (xG) for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.28 for Ankara Keçiörengücü, 2.79 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Fatih Karagümrük or draw (1X) 70%, Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw (X2) 57% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.