Feyenoord vs Inter Prediction: Away win 42% (3 Nov 2026)

Champions League3 November 202611°7 km/h

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FeyenoordBalanced & physical

InterBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Inter (42%)Best value by the model: 1 · Feyenoord @ 4.45 (+45 %)

1 · Feyenoord 33%X 25%42% Inter · 2

33%

25%

42%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Feyenoord vs Inter (Champions League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026): Feyenoord win 33%, draw 25%, Inter win 42%. Expected goals (xG): Feyenoord 1.38, Inter 1.70. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Feyenoord or draw 58%, Inter or draw 67%. Prediction updated Monday, 26 October 2026.

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Analysis: Feyenoord – Inter

Oscar Nilsson · 26 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Inter Milan's recent dominance over Feyenoord is clear, with the visitors having won both of their encounters since 2022. Despite this, the probability model only slightly favors Inter at 42%, suggesting the bookmakers may have overestimated their edge. The host side's 33% chance at victory is backed by a lucrative 37% edge in the home odds of 4.2 at LeoVegas, a tempting EV+ opportunity for those looking for a market oversight.

Feyenoord's balanced and physical approach mirrors that of their Italian visitors, but the underlying metrics paint contrasting pictures. Inter's superiority in expected goals per match (2.1 versus 0.74) and their ability to generate chances quickly (0.22 xG within 8 seconds of winning possession) highlight a potent offensive threat. Yet, Feyenoord holds a slight defensive edge, conceding fewer expected goals per match than Inter (1.8 versus 2.5).

The most likely outcomes favor a tight contest, with probabilities placing a 1-1 draw at 11% and a narrow 1-2 defeat for the hosts at 9%. Both teams are expected to score 61% of the time, indicating a match where defenses will be tested. While the over 2.5 goals market leads at 59%, the under 2.5 at odds 2.75 with LeoVegas offers a 12% edge, presenting a shrewd play for value seekers.

Expected goals predict a slight advantage for Inter (1.70 versus Feyenoord's 1.38), suggesting goals will come but not in floods. A cautious 1-1 draw remains the single most likely scoreline, narrowly ahead of a 1-2 win for the visitors.

For bettors, examining Feyenoord to win at home with a generous 37% edge or considering under 3.5 goals at 1.727 with a 9% edge might provide the best returns. These numbers illuminate the subtleties of this matchup, where smart wagers lie in the shadows of market consensus.

Feyenoord

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #53xGA #36xT #33xP/match #48Points #38

Key players

Givairo ReadRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.19
Gjivai ZechielCMxG 0.27 · xT 0.16
Mika Mármol MedinaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09

Inter

Form LLLLW

League ranking xG #13xGA #50xT #12xP/match #41Points #40

Key players

Alessandro BastoniCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
Andy DioufRWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.28
Nicolò BarellaCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Feyenoord – Inter

Predicted score matrix

Inter →

Feyenoord →

0–04.9%

0–17.5%

0–26.7%

0–33.8%

0–4+2.3%

1–06.0%

1–111.1%

1–29.2%

1–35.2%

1–4+3.2%

2–04.4%

2–17.4%

2–26.3%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.2%

3–02.0%

3–13.4%

3–22.9%

3–31.6%

3–4+1.0%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,38–1,70

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.97EV+21%

Over 2,559%

@1.41

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Inter or draw (X2)69%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Inter or draw (X2)69%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Nicolò Barella to score14%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Ignacio Ferri Julià to score34%
Manuel Obafemi Akanji to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Feyenoord33% probability@4.45BetsafeEV+45%reference odds
1 · Feyenoord33% probability@4.45NordicbetEV+45%reference odds
1 · Feyenoord33% probability@4.20LeoVegasEV+37%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Feyenoord	X	2 · Inter
Betsafe	EV+ 45% 4.45	EV+ 10% 4.40	1.68
LeoVegas	EV+ 37% 4.20	EV+ 5% 4.20	1.70
Nordicbet	EV+ 45% 4.45	EV+ 10% 4.40	1.68

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:37

Odds movement

10 %

25 %20 %

4.20 → 4.20

X0 %

25 %20 %

4.20 → 4.20

2-2 %

58 %53 %

1.73 → 1.70

Over 2,50 %

69 %64 %

1.40 → 1.40

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Feyenoord 0Draw 0Inter 2

Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Champions League data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Feyenoord

Inter

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Feyenoord (4–8)

Inter (5–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Feyenoord

Inter

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Feyenoord

Inter

The teams in numbers

Performance	Feyenoord	Inter
Points	3	3
xPoints	2.6	3.1
xG per match	0.74	2.1
xGA per match	1.8	2.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.04	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.84

Playing style	Feyenoord	Inter
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.34	0.61
xT per match	0.96	1.4
xTA per match	1.1	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	23	22
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.21	0.2
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.16
Entries into the box per match	8	18
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.81	0.85
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.79
Passes per match	415	489
Passes against per match	583	407
Switches of play per match	20.4	30
Long balls per match	21	33

Set pieces	Feyenoord	Inter
xG from free kicks	0.03	0
Corners per match	3.1	6.8
Corners against per match	3.1	4.1
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.33	0.58

Other	Feyenoord	Inter
Throw-in control	0.63	0.84

The goalkeepers	Tjark Ernst (Feyenoord)	Josep Martinez (Inter)
Saves	16	14
Save %	67%	70%
xG prevented	45%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Feyenoord

Fixtures, form & tips

Inter

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Feyenoord spelschema Inter spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Feyenoord vs Inter according to our model?

The model gives Inter a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Feyenoord 33%, draw 25%, Inter 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Feyenoord vs Inter?

The model expects 1.38 goals (xG) for Feyenoord and 1.70 for Inter, 3.07 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Feyenoord or draw (1X) 58%, Inter or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.