01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sporting CP to win52%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Champions League
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Shakhtar DonetskPossession controlvs
Sporting CPLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Sporting CP (52%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.23 (+3 %)
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP · Champions League
1 · Shakhtar Donetsk 27%X 21%52% Sporting CP · 2
27%
21%
52%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP (Champions League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026): Shakhtar Donetsk win 27%, draw 21%, Sporting CP win 52%. Expected goals (xG): Shakhtar Donetsk 1.17, Sporting CP 1.66. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Shakhtar Donetsk or draw 48%, Sporting CP or draw 73%. Prediction updated Monday, 26 October 2026.
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Analysis: Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
For those seeking value, Sporting CP's away win is favored by the model, with backing Sporting to capitalize on their direct, counter-attacking style against Shakhtar's possession game appearing to hold promise as the sharpest play.
Full corrected text:
Sporting CP's clinical edge in front of goal has been a defining trait of their campaign, averaging a robust 2.0 expected goals per match. Their low defensive block and direct approach provide a clear counterpoint to Shakhtar Donetsk's possession-based style. With the visitors favoring quick transitions, they could exploit spaces left by the hosts pushing forward. The model gives Sporting a 52% chance of victory, reinforcing the notion that their tactical approach may well trump Shakhtar's ball control.
Shakhtar's defense, however, could be a sticking point for Sporting. Conceding just 0.88 xGA per match, the hosts remain a tough nut to crack at the back. This defensive solidity might limit the scoring opportunities for Sporting, who, although potent, will have to work to unlock Shakhtar's organized lines. The calculated chances of a 1-1 draw at 12% and a Sporting 1-2 win at 10% underscore the likelihood of a tight contest.
Despite their defensive strengths, Shakhtar's issues in attack are apparent, with a modest 0.88 xG per match. This leaves them vulnerable to Sporting's efficient strike force, which has consistently outperformed in creating and converting chances. For Shakhtar to get a result, they must improve significantly in the final third, an area where they currently lag behind their Portuguese counterparts.
The model forecasts a 54% chance for over 2.5 goals, hinting at a relatively open game, despite Shakhtar's defensive prowess. Both teams to score is also pegged at 56%, suggesting that while goals might not be abundant, they are expected from both sides.
For those seeking value, Sporting CP's away win is favored by the model, with backing Sporting to capitalize on their direct, counter-attacking style against Shakhtar's possession game appearing to hold promise as the sharpest play.
Shakhtar DonetskForm WLDWL
League ranking xG #48xGA #6xT #55xP/match #29Points #29
Key players
- Pedro Henrique Azevedo PereiraLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
- Vinícius Augusto Tobias da SilvaRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08
- Mykola MatviienkoCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Sporting CPForm LDWWL
League ranking xG #14xGA #30xT #37xP/match #8Points #17
Key players
- Luis SuarezFxG 1.20 · xT -0.01
- Geny CatamoRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.23
- Issa DoumbiaCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
Predicted score matrix
Sporting CP →
Shakhtar Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.2%
0–19.4%
0–28.1%
0–34.5%
0–4+2.7%
1
1–06.6%
1–111.8%
1–29.5%
1–35.3%
1–4+3.2%
2
2–04.0%
2–16.7%
2–25.6%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–01.6%
3–12.6%
3–22.2%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,17–1,66
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.23EV+3%
Over 2,554%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sporting CP to win52%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Fotis Ioannidis to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Fotis Ioannidis to score26%
- Sergi Altimira Clavell to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.546% probability@2.23BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
- Under 2.546% probability@2.23NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
- Under 3.568% probability@1.48BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Shakhtar Donetsk | X | 2 · Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.75 | 3.75 | EV+ 0% 1.92 |
| Nordicbet | 3.75 | 3.75 | EV+ 0% 1.92 |
| Pinnacle | 3.66 | 3.99 | 1.88 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 06:36
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Shakhtar Donetsk
Sporting CP
Shakhtar Donetsk (4–3)
Sporting CP (7–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Sporting CP
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Sporting CP
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Shakhtar Donetsk | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 6 |
| xPoints | 3.9 | 5.8 |
| xG per match | 0.88 | 2 |
| xGA per match | 0.88 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Shakhtar Donetsk | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 0.33 | 0.84 |
| xTA per match | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| Entries into the box per match | 7 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.8 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 406 | 401 |
| Passes against per match | 366 | 442 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.1 | 27.7 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Shakhtar Donetsk | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per match | 3.4 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.73 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Other | Shakhtar Donetsk | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.85 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Dmytro Riznyk (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Kaique Pereira Azarias (Sporting CP) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 10 |
| Save % | 70% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 58% | 71% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Shakhtar Donetsk spelschemaSporting CP spelschema
- LASK – Slovan Bratislava3 November 2026
- Bodø/Glimt – Lille3 November 2026
- Manchester United – Roma3 November 2026
- Villarreal – Paris Saint-Germain3 November 2026
- FC Barcelona – Aston Villa3 November 2026
- Atlético de Madrid – Bayern München3 November 2026
- Galatasaray – Stuttgart3 November 2026
- Feyenoord – Inter3 November 2026
- PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge4 November 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP according to our model?
The model gives Sporting CP a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shakhtar Donetsk 27%, draw 21%, Sporting CP 52%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP?
The model expects 1.17 goals (xG) for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.66 for Sporting CP, 2.83 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw (1X) 48%, Sporting CP or draw (X2) 73% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.