Bodø/Glimt vs Lille Prediction: Home win 71% (3 Nov 2026)

Champions League3 November 20266°9,2 mm29 km/h

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Bodø/GlimtPossession & high press

LilleBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Bodø/Glimt (71%)

1 · Bodø/Glimt 71%X 16%13% Lille · 2

71%

16%

13%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bodø/Glimt vs Lille (Champions League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026): Bodø/Glimt win 71%, draw 16%, Lille win 13%. Expected goals (xG): Bodø/Glimt 2.52, Lille 1.11. Most likely score: 2-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Bodø/Glimt or draw 87%, Lille or draw 29%. Prediction updated Monday, 26 October 2026.

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Analysis: Bodø/Glimt – Lille

Marcus Johansson · 26 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Bodø/Glimt's high-octane pressing style sets the stage for their UEFA Champions League clash with Lille. The Norwegians have been in impressive form, boasting a perfect points tally of 12, compared to Lille's dismal zero. Their aggressive possession-based approach is likely to dictate the pace, especially given Lille's recent struggles, having lost four consecutive matches. Notably, Bodø/Glimt's expected goals (xG) of 1.6 per match significantly outstrip Lille's 0.85, highlighting a clear offensive edge.

The hosts' attacking vigor is further backed by the model, which places a hefty 71% probability on a Bodø/Glimt victory. With the most likely scoreline of 2-1 or 2-0, and an expected goals figure of 2.52, the numbers suggest Glimt will find the net multiple times. Lille, on the other hand, are poised to struggle, with a meager xG of 1.11. Lille's balanced but physical approach may not cope well with the relentless pressure at home.

Weather conditions, with nearly 48 mm of rain, might slow the tempo and affect ball control, yet the model's 70% prediction for over 2.5 goals remains compelling. This suggests that while the rain could dampen scoring chances, the hosts' offensive setup still promises goals, with a 62% likelihood that both teams will score.

For bettors, the standout value lies in backing Bodø/Glimt at odds of 1.98 with LeoVegas, given the model's 71% win probability—a considerable 41% edge. Considering the high chance of several goals, exploring the over 3.5 market at 2.12 also offers an enticing 4% edge. However, the over 4.5 bet, though tempting at 3.55, carries less weight with a 30% hit rate. Ultimately, the smart play revolves around capitalizing on Bodø/Glimt's dominance.

Bodø/Glimt

Form WWLWL

League ranking xG #22xGA #29xT #19xP/match #24Points #2

Key players

Jens Petter HaugeLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.26
Patrick BergCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.09
Sondre Brunstad FetCMxG 0.25 · xT 0.12

Lille

Form DLLLL

League ranking xG #49xGA #33xT #40xP/match #43Points #54

Key players

Alexsandro Victor de Souza RibeiroCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.09
Nathan NgoyCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
Hákon Arnar HaraldssonCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Bodø/Glimt – Lille

Predicted score matrix

Lille →

Bodø/Glimt →

0–02.9%

0–12.7%

0–21.6%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–06.5%

1–17.6%

1–24.1%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.5%

2–08.4%

2–19.3%

2–25.2%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–07.1%

3–17.8%

3–24.4%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.6%

4+–08.1%

4+–19.0%

4+–25.0%

4+–31.9%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-19%
2.2-08%
3.3-18%
4.1-18%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

2,52–1,11

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,6

19%

218%

321%

419%

5+30%

Under 2,530%

@2.63

Over 2,570%

@1.50EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bodø/Glimt to win71%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bodø/Glimt to win71%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Ole Didrik Blomberg to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Ole Didrik Blomberg to score27%
Nabil Bentaleb to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Bodø/Glimt71% probability@1.92LeoVegasEV+37%reference odds
1 · Bodø/Glimt71% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+32%reference odds
1 · Bodø/Glimt71% probability@1.85NordicbetEV+32%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bodø/Glimt	X	2 · Lille
Betsafe	EV+ 32% 1.85	4.00	3.80
LeoVegas	EV+ 37% 1.92	3.85	3.55
Nordicbet	EV+ 32% 1.85	4.00	3.80

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:37

Odds movement

1-3 %

51 %46 %

1.98 → 1.92

X+1 %

27 %22 %

3.80 → 3.85

2+3 %

29 %24 %

3.45 → 3.55

Over 2,5+1 %

65 %60 %

1.47 → 1.48

LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

LOSC Lille have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bodø/Glimt

Lille

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bodø/Glimt (13–12)

Lille (4–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bodø/Glimt

Lille

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bodø/Glimt

Lille

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bodø/Glimt	Lille
Points	12	0
xPoints	8.6	3
xG per match	1.6	0.85
xGA per match	1.5	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.04
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.47

Playing style	Bodø/Glimt	Lille
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.31
Field tilt	0.6	0.28
xT per match	1.2	0.78
xTA per match	1.3	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	25	17
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.12
Entries into the box per match	18	6
Entries into the box against	14	21
Pass completion %	0.83	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.81	0.71
Passes per match	509	403
Passes against per match	411	456
Switches of play per match	32.5	16.4
Long balls per match	29	22

Set pieces	Bodø/Glimt	Lille
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	4.5	2.7
Corners against per match	4.3	5.1
xG per corner	0.04	0
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.57	0.12
First touch, defensive corners %	0.74	0.67

Other	Bodø/Glimt	Lille
Throw-in control	0.75	0.59

The goalkeepers	Nikita Haikin (Bodø/Glimt)	Berke Özer (Lille)
Saves	24	8
Save %	89%	47%
xG prevented	69%	26%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bodø/Glimt

Fixtures, form & tips

Lille

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Bodø/Glimt spelschema Lille spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bodø/Glimt vs Lille according to our model?

The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bodø/Glimt 71%, draw 16%, Lille 13%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Bodø/Glimt vs Lille?

The model expects 2.52 goals (xG) for Bodø/Glimt and 1.11 for Lille, 3.63 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Bodø/Glimt or draw (1X) 87%, Lille or draw (X2) 29% and no draw (12) 84%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.