Ascoli vs Empoli · Serie B

Ascoli's possession control will be pivotal against an Empoli team that's floundering, particularly after losing three consecutive matches. The visitors' low defensive setup and direct play may struggle against the hosts’ more structured style. The numbers favor Ascoli, not only with a 58% model probability of winning but also through their superior expected goals (xG) of 1.84 compared to Empoli's 1.02. This marks a significant edge in attacking output.

In terms of recent form, Ascoli's advantage becomes clearer. They have accumulated 11 points while Empoli lags with just 6. Expected points tell a similar story: Ascoli at 8.5 versus Empoli's 7.2. This discrepancy is further highlighted by Ascoli's superior xG per match of 1.6, a notable contrast to Empoli's 0.9. It suggests that the hosts are both creating more and converting better chances. Defensively, too, Ascoli fares better, conceding an expected 1.3 goals per match against Empoli's higher 1.7.

The most likely scorelines point to a narrow match, with 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1 all hovering around the 10% probability mark. However, Ascoli's overall edge in metrics tilts the balance towards them, and the number-crunchers see a 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline as plausible outcomes. With the over 2.5 goals and both teams to score sitting at 54%, the data suggests an open game, despite Empoli's defensive approach.

From a betting perspective, there’s clear value in backing Ascoli on the home win market. With LeoVegas offering odds of 1.88 and both Betsafe and Nordicbet at 1.85, these odds present a notable edge of 8-9% over the model's 58% probability. Taking advantage of this discrepancy could provide positive expected value for punters willing to back the hosts.