Cesena vs Avellino: Prediction & Odds (18 Oct 2026)

Serie B18 October 2026Orogel Stadium Dino Manuzzi, Cesena16°17 km/h

Läs på svenska

CesenaLow block & direct

1–1

AvellinoCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Cesena (47%)

1 · Cesena 47%X 28%24% Avellino · 2

47%

28%

24%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Cesena vs Avellino (Serie B, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Cesena win 47%, draw 28%, Avellino win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Cesena 1.60, Avellino 1.01. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Cesena or draw 76%, Avellino or draw 53%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Cesena – Avellino

Erik Lindberg · 16 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Cesena holds a slender 47% probability to take all three points against Avellino, according to the model. With a slight edge in expected goals at 1.60 compared to Avellino's 1.01, the hosts seem poised to capitalize on their home advantage. A small head-to-head sample of two matches sees them even, each side with a win, yet Cesena's style of low defense and direct play lends itself well to containing Avellino's counter-attacking crosses.

While Avellino edges Cesena with 10 points to 7 in the standings, the underlying numbers tell a different story. Cesena shows superiority with higher xPoints (8.4 vs. 7.9) and better defensive metrics (xGA of 1.1 against Avellino's 1.3). This suggests that Cesena's defensive control could neutralize the visitors' offensive attempts, indicating a lean towards a low-scoring contest. The model's most likely outcomes are 1-1 or 1-0, reinforcing a cautious approach.

For those looking at potential value, betting on a Cesena win at odds of 2.15 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, or Nordicbet offers a 2% edge over the model's rate. Investing in such solid, well-underpinned plays is how steady profits are made, making Cesena the sensible choice here.

Cesena

Form WDDDL

League ranking xG #14xGA #6xT #18xP/match #8Points #11

Key players

Cristian ShpendiFxG 0.40 · xT 0.02
Mihajlo IlićCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.04
Andrea CiofiRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05

Avellino

Form WWDLW

League ranking xG #17xGA #13xT #14xP/match #11Points #6

Key players

Raffaele RussoLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.21
Armando IzzoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Walid CheddiraFxG 0.45 · xT 0.05

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Cesena 47% · Draw 28% · Avellino 24%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CesenaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,80fair 8,04-3 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AvellinoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,86fair 19,61-45 %

Miss

Match prediction: Cesena – Avellino

Predicted score matrix

Avellino →

Cesena →

0–07.7%

0–17.1%

0–23.8%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–011.4%

1–112.3%

1–26.0%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.4%

2–19.5%

2–24.8%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–05.0%

3–15.1%

3–22.6%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.8%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,60–1,01

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.90

Over 2,548%

@1.98

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Cesena to win47%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Cesena to win47%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Cristian Shpendi to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Cristian Shpendi to score24%
Luca Palmiero to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Cesena47% probability@2.35PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
1 · Cesena47% probability@2.20BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
1 · Cesena47% probability@2.20LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cesena	X	2 · Avellino
Betsafe	EV+ 4% 2.20	3.15	3.10
LeoVegas	EV+ 4% 2.20	3.25	3.10
Nordicbet	EV+ 4% 2.20	3.15	3.10
Pinnacle	EV+ 12% 2.35	3.14	3.42

Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

43 %38 %

2.33 → 2.35

X+1 %

33 %28 %

3.11 → 3.14

2+4 %

31 %26 %

3.30 → 3.42

Over 2,5+4 %

52 %47 %

1.89 → 1.97

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Cesena 1Draw 0Avellino 1

Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cesena

Avellino

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cesena (7–8)

Avellino (11–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cesena

Avellino

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cesena

Avellino

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cesena	Avellino
Points	7	10
xPoints	8.4	7.9
xG per match	0.97	0.96
xGA per match	1.1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.36

Playing style	Cesena	Avellino
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.27
Field tilt	0.41	0.32
xT per match	0.57	0.92
xTA per match	0.76	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	21	16
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.21
Entries into the box per match	9	9
Entries into the box against	14	15
Pass completion %	0.77	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.73
Passes per match	351	342
Passes against per match	414	404
Switches of play per match	28.4	28.2
Long balls per match	34	39

Set pieces	Cesena	Avellino
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.01
Corners per match	4	2.1
Corners against per match	6.2	5.8
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.23
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.49

Other	Cesena	Avellino
Throw-in control	0.79	0.7

The goalkeepers	Alessandro Siano (Cesena)	Tommaso Martinelli (Avellino)
Saves	21	22
Save %	72%	79%
xG prevented	66%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cesena

Fixtures, form & tips

Avellino

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cesena vs Avellino according to our model?

The model gives Cesena a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cesena 47%, draw 28%, Avellino 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Cesena vs Avellino?

The model expects 1.60 goals (xG) for Cesena and 1.01 for Avellino, 2.61 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Cesena or draw (1X) 76%, Avellino or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.