01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sampdoria to win56%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Serie BStadio Luigi Ferraris, Genova18°29,3 mm12 km/h
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SampdoriaPossession & high press1–2
ArezzoBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Sampdoria (56%)
Sampdoria vs Arezzo · Serie B
1 · Sampdoria 56%X 24%19% Arezzo · 2
56%
24%
19%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sampdoria vs Arezzo (Serie B, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Sampdoria win 56%, draw 24%, Arezzo win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Sampdoria 1.79, Arezzo 0.88. Most likely score: 1-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Sampdoria or draw 81%, Arezzo or draw 44%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Sampdoria – Arezzo
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
A small head-to-head sample offers limited insight here, so form and expected goals take center stage. Sampdoria has shown a stronger underlying performance, boasting 7.8 xPoints to Arezzo's 7.5, despite trailing in actual points. This discrepancy suggests that the hosts have been unlucky rather than ineffective, hinting at potential for bounce-back.
Sampdoria's possession and high press strategy contrasts with the balanced and physical approach of Arezzo. The expected goals tell a story of greater offensive promise for the home side, sitting at 1.79 compared to the visitors’ 0.88. Defensively, Sampdoria also holds an edge, with a slightly lower xGA of 1.2 to Arezzo's 1.4. Weather conditions of 11.9 mm rain can temper goal-scoring, aiding the home team in controlling the pace.
With the model pointing to a likely Sampdoria victory (56% probability), the scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 appear plausible. The match leans towards under 2.5 goals, in line with the balanced defenses and the damp conditions. A draw remains possible, but the home side's tactical setup and statistical edge suggest they are primed to secure points.
For bettors, the most enticing angle lies in the value on Sampdoria at odds of 1.8 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet. The model identifies a 2% edge at these odds, making it a calculated play for those backing the hosts to capitalize on their underlying dominance and claim victory.
SampdoriaForm LLLWL
League ranking xG #7xGA #11xT #10xP/match #12Points #19
Key players
- Mattia VitiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
- Antoine MakoumbouCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
- Lorenzo InsigneLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.13
ArezzoForm LLWLD
League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #7xP/match #14Points #9
Key players
- Samuele RighettiLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.25
- Mauro CoppolaroCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
- Alessandro ArenaRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.13
Final score
1 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sampdoria 56% · Draw 24% · Arezzo 19%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SampdoriaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,55fair 6,90-5 %
MissMatchresultat - ArezzoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 15,34fair 28,01-45 %
MissMatch prediction: Sampdoria – Arezzo
Predicted score matrix
Arezzo →
Sampdoria →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.3%
0–15.8%
0–22.7%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–012.1%
1–111.2%
1–24.8%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–011.1%
2–19.8%
2–24.3%
2–31.3%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–06.6%
3–15.8%
3–22.6%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–04.4%
4+–13.9%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-012%
- 2.1-111%
- 3.2-011%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,79–0,88
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,550%
@1.85
Over 2,550%
@2.02EV+1%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sampdoria to win56%
- Under 2.5 goals50%
- Gennaro Tutino to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Gennaro Tutino to score29%
- Gennaro Iaccarino to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Sampdoria56% probability@1.81PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Sampdoria56% probability@1.80BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Sampdoria56% probability@1.80LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sampdoria | X | 2 · Arezzo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 1.80 | 3.35 | 4.20 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 2% 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 1.80 | 3.35 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 1.81 | 3.69 | 4.66 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
1-1 %
54 %49 %
1.83 → 1.81
X+3 %
29 %24 %
3.60 → 3.69
2+8 %
25 %20 %
4.33 → 4.66
Over 2,5+1 %
50 %45 %
2.00 → 2.02
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sampdoria
Arezzo
Sampdoria (6–13)
Arezzo (6–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sampdoria
Arezzo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sampdoria
Arezzo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sampdoria | Arezzo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 7 |
| xPoints | 7.8 | 7.5 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| Playing style | Sampdoria | Arezzo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.66 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 374 | 336 |
| Passes against per match | 377 | 413 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.1 | 37.3 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 45 |
| Set pieces | Sampdoria | Arezzo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| Other | Sampdoria | Arezzo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Peter Vindahl Jensen (Sampdoria) | Alessandro Nunziante (Arezzo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 15 |
| Save % | 50% | 54% |
| xG prevented | 30% | 28% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Hellas Verona – Catanzaro16 October 2026
- Padova – Virtus Entella17 October 2026
- Pisa – Cremonese17 October 2026
- Ascoli – Empoli17 October 2026
- Benevento – Vicenza17 October 2026
- Carrarese – Modena17 October 2026
- Mantova – Palermo17 October 2026
- Cesena – Avellino18 October 2026
- Juve Stabia – Südtirol18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sampdoria vs Arezzo according to our model?
The model gives Sampdoria a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sampdoria 56%, draw 24%, Arezzo 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Sampdoria vs Arezzo?
The model expects 1.79 goals (xG) for Sampdoria and 0.88 for Arezzo, 2.67 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Sampdoria or draw (1X) 81%, Arezzo or draw (X2) 44% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.