01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Palermo or draw (X2)66%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Serie BStadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova17°8 km/h
Läs på svenska
MantovaPossession control0–2
PalermoCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Palermo (36%)Best value by the model: 1 · Mantova @ 3.54 (+19 %)
Mantova vs Palermo · Serie B
1 · Mantova 34%X 30%36% Palermo · 2
34%
30%
36%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Mantova vs Palermo (Serie B, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Mantova win 34%, draw 30%, Palermo win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Mantova 1.39, Palermo 1.52. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Mantova or draw 64%, Palermo or draw 66%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Mantova – Palermo
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: A clash of contrasting styles awaits as possession-focused Mantova hosts counter-attacking Palermo. The tension lies in how Mantova's methodical build-up will fare against Palermo's swift transitions and aerial prowess. Despite Mantova's unbeaten streak in their last six league matches, Palermo holds a narrow edge in both points and expected goals metrics, hinting at their potential to spoil the hosts' run.
The model suggests a razor-thin margin between the teams, with Palermo slightly favored at 36% probability of winning compared to Mantova's 34%. This delicately poised scenario is reflected in the most likely scorelines, where 1-1 emerges as the front-runner at 12%, followed by 1-2 at 9% and 2-1 at 8%. Both teams to score seems a strong possibility, with a 59% chance, indicating moments of vulnerability in defense despite solid recent form.
Palermo's attacking efficiency, marked by an impressive xG of 2.0 per match, often finds its counterpart in Mantova's defensive resilience, bolstered by a slightly better xGA. Yet, the visitors' slight supremacy in xPoints and a modest head-to-head edge—just one win in four meetings, with three draws and one loss for Mantova—suggest they might edge the encounter.
For bettors, the most intriguing angle is the value on Mantova at odds 3.15 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet. The model rates the home win probability at 34%, offering a 6% edge—an opportunity for those willing to back the underdog in a finely balanced contest.
MantovaForm WDWDW
League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #11xP/match #6Points #2
Key players
- Francesco RuoccoLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.10
- Simone TrimboliCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
- Alessio CastelliniCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.18
PalermoForm WWDWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #12xT #3xP/match #3Points #1
Key players
- Filippo RanocchiaCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.19
- Pietro CeccaroniCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
- Antonio PalumboRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.27
Final score
0 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Mantova 34% · Draw 30% · Palermo 36%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - MantovaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,62fair 9,80-12 %
MissMatchresultat - PalermoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,89fair 8,18-28 %
MissMatch prediction: Mantova – Palermo
Predicted score matrix
Palermo →
Mantova →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–18.0%
0–26.3%
0–33.2%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–07.3%
1–111.9%
1–28.8%
1–34.4%
1–4+2.4%
2
2–05.3%
2–18.0%
2–26.1%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–02.4%
3–13.7%
3–22.8%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,39–1,52
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@2.19
Over 2,555%
@1.72
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Palermo or draw (X2)66%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Dominic Vavassori to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Francesco Ruocco to score25%
- Nahuel Estévez Álvarez to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Mantova34% probability@3.54PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
- 1 · Mantova34% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Mantova34% probability@3.15LeoVegasEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Mantova | X | 2 · Palermo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 6% 3.15 | EV+ 0% 3.30 | 2.12 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 6% 3.15 | EV+ 2% 3.35 | 2.15 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 6% 3.15 | EV+ 0% 3.30 | 2.12 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 19% 3.54 | EV+ 3% 3.37 | 2.18 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 11:37
Odds movement
1+3 %
30 %25 %
3.44 → 3.54
X+3 %
31 %26 %
3.26 → 3.37
20 %
46 %41 %
2.19 → 2.18
Over 2,50 %
58 %53 %
1.73 → 1.72
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesMantova 0Draw 3Palermo 1
Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.
Key facts
- Mantova 1911 are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
- Palermo are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Mantova
Palermo
Mantova (13–6)
Palermo (14–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Mantova
Palermo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Mantova
Palermo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Mantova | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 16 |
| xPoints | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 2 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.48 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.1 |
| Playing style | Mantova | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.9 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 346 | 376 |
| Passes against per match | 366 | 335 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.1 | 25 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Mantova | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| Other | Mantova | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Francesco Bardi (Mantova) | Mattia Fortin (Palermo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 12 |
| Save % | 71% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Hellas Verona – Catanzaro16 October 2026
- Padova – Virtus Entella17 October 2026
- Pisa – Cremonese17 October 2026
- Ascoli – Empoli17 October 2026
- Benevento – Vicenza17 October 2026
- Carrarese – Modena17 October 2026
- Cesena – Avellino18 October 2026
- Sampdoria – Arezzo18 October 2026
- Juve Stabia – Südtirol18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Mantova vs Palermo according to our model?
The model gives Palermo a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mantova 34%, draw 30%, Palermo 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Mantova vs Palermo?
The model expects 1.39 goals (xG) for Mantova and 1.52 for Palermo, 2.90 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Mantova or draw (1X) 64%, Palermo or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.