Carrarese vs Modena: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Serie B17 October 2026Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara19°7 km/h

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CarraresePossession control

2–1

ModenaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Modena (56%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.40 (+1 %)

1 · Carrarese 19%X 26%56% Modena · 2

19%

26%

56%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Carrarese vs Modena (Serie B, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Carrarese win 19%, draw 26%, Modena win 56%. Expected goals (xG): Carrarese 0.89, Modena 1.77. Most likely score: 0-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Carrarese or draw 44%, Modena or draw 81%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Carrarese – Modena

Oscar Nilsson · 16 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The numbers indicate a clear edge for Modena as they face Carrarese in this Serie B clash. The model gives the visitors a 56% chance of victory, suggesting value at odds of 1.833 with LeoVegas, where even a small edge can make a difference. With expected goals of 1.77 for Modena against 0.89 for the hosts, the visitors appear poised to dominate.

Carrarese's possession control style might struggle against Modena's high press. The visitors' ability to capitalize on chances, reflected in their xG of 1.6 per match, contrasts sharply with the hosts' 0.97. This suggests Carrarese may find it difficult to break down Modena's defense, especially since their own xGA of 1.3 is significantly higher than Modena's 0.96.

Historically, the head-to-head is a small sample of four matches, showing a slight edge to Modena with two wins against Carrarese's one. However, the current form and underlying stats weigh more heavily here. Modena's 13 points compared to Carrarese's 4 further reinforce their superiority in the current season.

The probability of over 2.5 goals is evenly split at 50%, but with Carrarese's limited attacking threat, a lower-scoring match seems more likely. The model also suggests a 49% chance for both teams to find the net, which aligns with a cautious outlook on high scoring.

In a match leaning towards 0-1 or 0-2 outcomes, the sharpest angle is Modena's odds with LeoVegas. Given the statistical support and slight value edge, backing the visitors to win seems the most prudent bet for this encounter.

Carrarese

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #15xGA #14xT #17xP/match #10Points #18

Key players

Jonas Jakob RouhiLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.14
Filippo OlianaCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.02
Nicolas SchiaviCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.13

Modena

Form WLDWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #1xT #1xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Simone SantoroCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.13
Bryant NielingCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
Daniel TonoliRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.16

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Carrarese 19% · Draw 26% · Modena 56%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - ModenaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,43fair 7,02-23 %

Miss

Matchresultat - CarrareseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,38fair 27,29-51 %

Miss

Match prediction: Carrarese – Modena

Predicted score matrix

Modena →

Carrarese →

0–07.4%

0–112.1%

0–211.0%

0–36.5%

0–4+4.3%

1–05.9%

1–111.4%

1–29.7%

1–35.7%

1–4+3.8%

2–02.8%

2–14.9%

2–24.3%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.7%

3–00.8%

3–11.5%

3–21.3%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-112%
2.1-111%
3.0-211%
4.1-210%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

0,89–1,77

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.98

Over 2,550%

@1.89

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Modena to win56%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Modena to win56%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Giuseppe Ambrosino Di Bruttopilo to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Giuseppe Ambrosino Di Bruttopilo to score28%
Niccolò Belloni to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.572% probability@1.40LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
2 · Modena56% probability@1.81PinnacleEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Carrarese	X	2 · Modena
Betsafe	4.30	3.40	1.75
LeoVegas	4.30	3.55	1.77
Nordicbet	4.30	3.40	1.75
Pinnacle	4.86	3.56	EV+ 0% 1.81

Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38

Odds movement

1+2 %

22 %17 %

4.77 → 4.86

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.51 → 3.56

2+2 %

56 %51 %

1.77 → 1.81

Over 2,5+1 %

54 %49 %

1.88 → 1.89

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Carrarese 1Draw 1Modena 2

Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Carrarese

Modena

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Carrarese (4–6)

Modena (11–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Carrarese

Modena

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Carrarese

Modena

The teams in numbers

Performance	Carrarese	Modena
Points	4	13
xPoints	8.3	9.2
xG per match	0.97	1.6
xGA per match	1.3	0.96
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.35	0.06

Playing style	Carrarese	Modena
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.33
Field tilt	0.3	0.64
xT per match	0.69	1.4
xTA per match	1.3	0.76
Won balls, offensive half	19	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.24
Entries into the box per match	11	17
Entries into the box against	15	9
Pass completion %	0.74	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.76
Passes per match	300	424
Passes against per match	494	326
Switches of play per match	17.6	31
Long balls per match	22	35

Set pieces	Carrarese	Modena
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.02
Corners per match	4.9	5.3
Corners against per match	5	4.8
xG per corner	0.07	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.69
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.62

Other	Carrarese	Modena
Throw-in control	0.71	0.79

The goalkeepers	Giovanni Gabriele Garofani (Carrarese)	Leandro Chichizola (Modena)
Saves	8	17
Save %	73%	74%
xG prevented	65%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Carrarese

Fixtures, form & tips

Modena

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Carrarese vs Modena according to our model?

The model gives Modena a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Carrarese 19%, draw 26%, Modena 56%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Carrarese vs Modena?

The model expects 0.89 goals (xG) for Carrarese and 1.77 for Modena, 2.65 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Carrarese or draw (1X) 44%, Modena or draw (X2) 81% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.