Benevento vs Vicenza: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Serie B17 October 2026Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento14°5 km/h

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BeneventoBalanced & physical

2–2

VicenzaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Benevento (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Vicenza @ 4.01 (+15 %)

1 · Benevento 44%X 27%29% Vicenza · 2

44%

27%

29%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Benevento vs Vicenza (Serie B, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Benevento win 44%, draw 27%, Vicenza win 29%. Expected goals (xG): Benevento 1.63, Vicenza 1.26. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Benevento or draw 71%, Vicenza or draw 56%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Benevento – Vicenza

Anna Karlsson · 16 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The text holds mostly, but one claim contradicts the facts: Benevento's defense is described as "slightly vulnerable" right after correctly noting their lower xGA (1.1 vs 1.4), which actually shows a stronger, not vulnerable, defense compared to Vicenza.

CORRECTED TEXT:

A clash of styles awaits us as Benevento hosts Vicenza, with the home side's balanced approach set against the visitors' penchant for counter-attacks and crosses. Benevento's recent form—three successive victories—suggests they're well-equipped to handle Vicenza's strategies. With a model rating of 44% for the hosts to win, the numbers seem to favor Benevento, yet this isn't the full story.

The expected goals lean towards Benevento, with a tally of 1.63 compared to Vicenza's 1.26, hinting at a marginal edge for the home side in terms of creating opportunities. This is further bolstered by their robust defensive statistics, conceding fewer expected goals per match (1.1) than their opponents (1.4). Still, Vicenza's counter-attacking style could make for a closer contest than many expect. The most probable scorelines—1-1, 2-1, 1-0—highlight the fine margins at play.

From a betting perspective, the over 2.5 goals scenario stands at 55%, with a 58% chance of both teams finding the net. These figures imply a slightly higher-than-average goal expectancy. Despite the model suggesting a Benevento lean, there’s a sliver of value in Vicenza's odds. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer Vicenza at 3.5, providing a minor 1% edge over the model’s probability of 29% for an away win.

The essence of this matchup revolves around how effectively Vicenza can exploit their counter-attacking prowess against a Benevento side in good form. While the hosts have the upper hand statistically, the intriguing value on Vicenza cannot be ignored. For the savvy punter, this could be the game-changer.

Benevento

Form DLWWW

League ranking xG #10xGA #7xT #15xP/match #5Points #8

Key players

Mattia MaitaCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Antonio PriscoCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Davide LamestaRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.15

Vicenza

Form LDDLL

League ranking xG #9xGA #16xT #6xP/match #17Points #17

Key players

Gabriele MonciniFxG 0.54 · xT 0.04
Filippo CostaLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
Tommaso CorazzaLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.24

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Benevento 44% · Draw 27% · Vicenza 29%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - L.R. Vicenza VirtusBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,55fair 12,13-5 %

Miss

Matchresultat - BeneventoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,74fair 7,24-21 %

Miss

Match prediction: Benevento – Vicenza

Predicted score matrix

Vicenza →

Benevento →

0–05.9%

0–16.7%

0–24.4%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.8%

1–08.8%

1–111.8%

1–27.2%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.4%

2–19.3%

2–25.8%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–04.0%

3–15.0%

3–23.2%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.4%

4+–13.0%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,63–1,26

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

224%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.08

Over 2,555%

@1.79

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Benevento or draw (1X)71%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Benevento or draw (1X)71%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Francesco Paolo Salvemini to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Francesco Paolo Salvemini to score29%
Marco Carraro to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Vicenza29% probability@4.01PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
2 · Vicenza29% probability@3.80BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
2 · Vicenza29% probability@3.80NordicbetEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Benevento	X	2 · Vicenza
Betsafe	1.85	3.40	EV+ 9% 3.80
LeoVegas	1.88	3.55	EV+ 8% 3.75
Nordicbet	1.85	3.40	EV+ 9% 3.80
Pinnacle	1.93	EV+ 1% 3.69	EV+ 15% 4.01

Odds updated 17 Oct, 10:17

Odds movement

1-3 %

51 %46 %

1.98 → 1.93

X+3 %

29 %24 %

3.59 → 3.69

2+9 %

27 %22 %

3.69 → 4.01

Over 2,5-2 %

55 %50 %

1.83 → 1.79

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Benevento Calcio come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Benevento

Vicenza

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Benevento (8–5)

Vicenza (7–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Benevento

Vicenza

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Benevento

Vicenza

The teams in numbers

Performance	Benevento	Vicenza
Points	10	5
xPoints	9.1	7
xG per match	1.2	1.2
xGA per match	1.1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.06	0.17

Playing style	Benevento	Vicenza
Build-up efficiency	0.24	0.32
Field tilt	0.49	0.47
xT per match	0.75	1.1
xTA per match	0.85	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	21	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.18
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	10	11
Pass completion %	0.78	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.72
Passes per match	336	315
Passes against per match	375	364
Switches of play per match	28.5	26.6
Long balls per match	31	34

Set pieces	Benevento	Vicenza
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.03
Corners per match	6	6.7
Corners against per match	6.2	5.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.62

Other	Benevento	Vicenza
Throw-in control	0.69	0.67

The goalkeepers	Gianmarco Vannucchi (Benevento)	Riccardo Gagno (Vicenza)
Saves	12	28
Save %	71%	68%
xG prevented	42%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Benevento

Fixtures, form & tips

Vicenza

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Benevento vs Vicenza according to our model?

The model gives Benevento a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benevento 44%, draw 27%, Vicenza 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Benevento vs Vicenza?

The model expects 1.63 goals (xG) for Benevento and 1.26 for Vicenza, 2.88 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Benevento or draw (1X) 71%, Vicenza or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.