Pisa vs Cremonese: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Serie B17 October 2026Arena Garibaldi, Pisa19°8 km/h

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PisaBalanced & physical

3–1

CremonesePossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Cremonese (39%)

1 · Pisa 32%X 29%39% Cremonese · 2

32%

29%

39%

Prediction summary

Final score 3–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Pisa vs Cremonese (Serie B, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Pisa win 32%, draw 29%, Cremonese win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Pisa 1.34, Cremonese 1.34. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Pisa or draw 61%, Cremonese or draw 68%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Pisa – Cremonese

Erik Lindberg · 16 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The most likely scorelines, 1-1 at 13%, and 0-1 or 1-0 each at 9%, reinforce this equilibrium.

Full corrected text:

The model gives Cremonese a slight edge with a 39% probability of winning against Pisa's 32%, but the numbers suggest a balanced encounter. Expected goals are deadlocked at 1.34 apiece, pointing to a tightly contested match. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 at 13%, and 0-1 or 1-0 each at 9%, reinforce this equilibrium. The over/under 2.5 goals is split at 50%, reflecting uncertainty about either side's ability to break the deadlock.

Despite Pisa's 2-0 head-to-head advantage, the sample size of just two games is too small to outweigh more telling metrics. Pisa holds an edge in xPoints (11.7 vs 6.4), xG per match (1.9 vs 0.95), and xGA per match (1.0 vs 1.1). These factors suggest Pisa has been the more effective team in recent performances, even if the model leans slightly toward Cremonese.

From a betting perspective, the value lies with Cremonese at odds of 3.3 with Betsafe or Nordicbet, offering a 30% edge, and at 3.25 with LeoVegas, providing a 28% edge according to the model's 39% probability. Expect a tight game with a likely 1-1 stalemate, but the away value cannot be ignored for those backing Cremonese.

Pisa

Form WWLDW

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #4xP/match #1Points #7

Key players

Stefano MoreoFxG 0.37 · xT 0.16
Mattéo TramoniLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.45
Francesco CoppolaCBxG 0.24 · xT 0.04

Cremonese

Form LWDDD

League ranking xG #18xGA #5xT #9xP/match #18Points #14

Key players

Federico BonazzoliRWxG 0.64 · xT 0.02
Fabio GerliCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
Simone PontissoCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.12

Final score

3 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Pisa 32% · Draw 29% · Cremonese 39%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CremoneseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,29fair 10,55+16 %

Miss

Matchresultat - PisaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,56fair 10,57-29 %

Hit

Match prediction: Pisa – Cremonese

Predicted score matrix

Cremonese →

Pisa →

0–07.2%

0–18.8%

0–26.2%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.2%

1–08.8%

1–112.7%

1–28.3%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.1%

2–18.3%

2–25.5%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.7%

3–13.7%

3–22.5%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,34–1,34

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,550%

@1.78

Over 2,550%

@2.10EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Cremonese or draw (X2)63%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Cremonese or draw (X2)63%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Federico Bonazzoli to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Federico Bonazzoli to score29%
Alberto Grassi to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Cremonese39% probability@3.86PinnacleEV+52%reference odds
2 · Cremonese39% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+36%reference odds
2 · Cremonese39% probability@3.45NordicbetEV+36%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Pisa	X	2 · Cremonese
Betsafe	2.08	3.10	EV+ 36% 3.45
LeoVegas	2.12	3.15	EV+ 34% 3.40
Nordicbet	2.08	3.10	EV+ 36% 3.45
Pinnacle	2.13	3.22	EV+ 52% 3.86

Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38

Odds movement

1-1 %

47 %42 %

2.16 → 2.13

X+1 %

33 %28 %

3.20 → 3.22

2+8 %

28 %23 %

3.58 → 3.86

Over 2,50 %

47 %42 %

2.11 → 2.10

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Pisa 2Draw 0Cremonese 0

Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pisa

Cremonese

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Pisa (11–8)

Cremonese (5–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Pisa

Cremonese

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Pisa

Cremonese

The teams in numbers

Performance	Pisa	Cremonese
Points	10	6
xPoints	11.7	6.4
xG per match	1.9	0.95
xGA per match	1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.08
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.27

Playing style	Pisa	Cremonese
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.53	0.64
xT per match	1.1	1
xTA per match	0.98	0.64
Won balls, offensive half	28	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.24
Entries into the box per match	14	10
Entries into the box against	14	8
Pass completion %	0.76	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.78
Passes per match	350	452
Passes against per match	400	359
Switches of play per match	20.6	30.4
Long balls per match	22	33

Set pieces	Pisa	Cremonese
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.02
Corners per match	6.2	3.7
Corners against per match	5.2	3.3
xG per corner	0.05	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.55

Other	Pisa	Cremonese
Throw-in control	0.67	0.72

The goalkeepers	Alessandro Confente (Pisa)	Federico Agazzi (Cremonese)
Saves	13	10
Save %	62%	63%
xG prevented	48%	26%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Pisa

Fixtures, form & tips

Cremonese

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pisa vs Cremonese according to our model?

The model gives Cremonese a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pisa 32%, draw 29%, Cremonese 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Pisa vs Cremonese?

The model expects 1.34 goals (xG) for Pisa and 1.34 for Cremonese, 2.69 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Pisa or draw (1X) 61%, Cremonese or draw (X2) 68% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.