01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Juve Stabia to win49%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Serie BStadio Romeo Menti, Castellammare di Stabia19°8 km/h
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Juve StabiaBalanced & physical3–0
SüdtirolCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Juve Stabia (49%)
Juve Stabia vs Südtirol · Serie B
1 · Juve Stabia 49%X 27%24% Südtirol · 2
49%
27%
24%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Juve Stabia vs Südtirol (Serie B, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Juve Stabia win 49%, draw 27%, Südtirol win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Juve Stabia 1.34, Südtirol 1.10. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Juve Stabia or draw 76%, Südtirol or draw 51%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Juve Stabia – Südtirol
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Südtirol's remarkable unbeaten streak, now at nine league matches, sets a formidable backdrop for their visit to Juve Stabia. Yet, despite their recent solidity, the model sees the hosts as slight favorites, assigning them a 49% chance of victory. This hints at an intriguing clash where styles could dictate the flow. Juve Stabia's balanced and physical approach might just counterbalance Südtirol's penchant for counter-attacks and crosses.
The head-to-head record, though limited to four matches, slightly favors the hosts with two wins. However, when considering season form, Südtirol holds the upper hand with 12 points compared to Juve Stabia's six. The expected goals also provide a layer of complexity. Juve Stabia's offensive potential, with an xG of 1.34, suggests they might edge out a close contest. Yet, Südtirol's defensive resilience, evident in their lower xGA of 1.1, cannot be overlooked.
Predictions lean towards a tight affair, with a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome at 13%, followed by a 1-0 victory for the hosts at 11%. The expected goals further indicate a match likely to see limited scoring opportunities, with a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% likelihood for both teams to find the net. This paints a picture of a contest where defenses might prevail over attacking intent.
For those looking for betting angles, the odds for a Juve Stabia win present potential value. With a 6% edge at odds of 2.15 on LeoVegas, as well as 4% edges at 2.12 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, backing the home side could be a shrewd move. Though not a certainty, the figures suggest a calculated risk on the hosts might yield returns, especially given Südtirol's formidable, yet not insurmountable, streak.
Juve StabiaForm WLDDD
League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #16xP/match #15Points #15
Key players
- Davide BettellaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
- Nicola PietrangeliCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
- Antonio Di NardoFxG 0.50 · xT 0.02
SüdtirolForm DWDWD
League ranking xG #20xGA #8xT #19xP/match #9Points #4
Key players
- Rareş Cătălin BurneteRBxG 0.28 · xT 0.03
- Simone TronchinCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.02
- Fabio RispoliCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.06
Final score
3 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Juve Stabia 49% · Draw 27% · Südtirol 24%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SudtirolBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 13,76fair 16,43-16 %
MissMatchresultat - Juve StabiaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,58fair 11,19-32 %
MissMatch prediction: Juve Stabia – Südtirol
Predicted score matrix
Südtirol →
Juve Stabia →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.1%
0–19.2%
0–25.3%
0–31.9%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–011.3%
1–113.2%
1–27.1%
1–32.6%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–07.8%
2–18.6%
2–24.7%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.5%
3–13.8%
3–22.1%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–11.7%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,34–1,10
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.79EV+0%
Over 2,544%
@2.09
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Juve Stabia to win49%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Leonardo Candellone to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Leonardo Candellone to score26%
- Andrea Giorgini to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Juve Stabia49% probability@2.08PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
- Under 2.556% probability@1.79PinnacleEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Juve Stabia | X | 2 · Südtirol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.00 | 3.15 | 3.65 |
| LeoVegas | 2.02 | 3.20 | 3.65 |
| Nordicbet | 2.00 | 3.15 | 3.65 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 2.08 | 3.35 | 3.85 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1-2 %
48 %43 %
2.13 → 2.08
X+4 %
32 %27 %
3.23 → 3.35
2+6 %
27 %22 %
3.64 → 3.85
Over 2,5-1 %
48 %43 %
2.11 → 2.09
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesJuve Stabia 2Draw 1Südtirol 1
Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.
Key facts
- Sudtirol are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Juve Stabia
Südtirol
Juve Stabia (5–8)
Südtirol (9–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Juve Stabia
Südtirol
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Juve Stabia
Südtirol
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Juve Stabia | Südtirol |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 12 |
| xPoints | 7.2 | 8.3 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 0.85 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Juve Stabia | Südtirol |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 0.69 | 0.52 |
| xTA per match | 0.7 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 16 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 5 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 405 | 374 |
| Passes against per match | 292 | 390 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.9 | 17.3 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Juve Stabia | Südtirol |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 2.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.3 | 7.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.6 |
| Other | Juve Stabia | Südtirol |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Pietro Boer (Juve Stabia) | Alessandro Plizzari (Südtirol) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 19 |
| Save % | 68% | 86% |
| xG prevented | 66% | 58% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Hellas Verona – Catanzaro16 October 2026
- Padova – Virtus Entella17 October 2026
- Pisa – Cremonese17 October 2026
- Ascoli – Empoli17 October 2026
- Benevento – Vicenza17 October 2026
- Carrarese – Modena17 October 2026
- Mantova – Palermo17 October 2026
- Cesena – Avellino18 October 2026
- Sampdoria – Arezzo18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Juve Stabia vs Südtirol according to our model?
The model gives Juve Stabia a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Juve Stabia 49%, draw 27%, Südtirol 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Juve Stabia vs Südtirol?
The model expects 1.34 goals (xG) for Juve Stabia and 1.10 for Südtirol, 2.44 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Juve Stabia or draw (1X) 76%, Südtirol or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.