01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Virtus Entella or draw (X2)68%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Serie BStadio Euganeo, Padova
Läs på svenska
PadovaBalanced & physical1–2
Virtus EntellaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Virtus Entella (45%)
Padova vs Virtus Entella · Serie B
1 · Padova 31%X 25%45% Virtus Entella · 2
31%
25%
45%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Padova vs Virtus Entella (Serie B, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Padova win 31%, draw 25%, Virtus Entella win 45%. Expected goals (xG): Padova 1.26, Virtus Entella 1.47. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Padova or draw 55%, Virtus Entella or draw 69%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Padova – Virtus Entella
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Virtus Entella heads into their clash with Padova as the market's underdog, yet the numbers suggest otherwise. With a model probability of 45% favoring the visitors, there's a compelling case that Entella is undervalued, particularly given the EV+ opportunity with Betsafe and Nordicbet at odds of 3.0. These odds provide a substantial 34% edge, a rare find in such a balanced league.
While historical head-to-head data between these two is limited to just two matches, where both sides split a win each, it's Entella's recent form and underlying metrics that catch the eye. They've managed an xPoints tally of 7.7 compared to Padova's 5.7, indicating a stronger underlying performance. Furthermore, their xGA per match stands at a solid 1.0, significantly tighter than the hosts' leaky 1.7.
Padova may have a slight edge in actual points with 7 to Entella's 6, but the expected goals tell a different story. The visitors' xG per match of 1.1, though modest, suggests they're creating more meaningful chances than Padova, who sit at 0.97. This aligns with their possession-heavy, high-pressing style that could unsettle a physical Padova side.
The model's predicted most likely scorelines hint at a tight affair, with 1-1, 0-1, and 1-2 all plausible outcomes. The expected goals lean towards Entella, while the over 2.5 goals sits at 51%, suggesting a marginal preference for the over. A 0-1 or 1-2 result seems within reach for the visitors.
For those hunting for value, Virtus Entella at 3.0 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, or even 2.95 with LeoVegas, is a line that stands out. This isn't just about numbers; it's about spotting where the market has blinked. With the odds favoring a visitor upset, this is a calculated punt worth considering.
PadovaForm DLWLL
League ranking xG #16xGA #19xT #12xP/match #20Points #10
Key players
- Kevin LasagnaFxG 0.25 · xT 0.15
- Pietro FusiLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.17
- Filippo SgarbiCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Virtus EntellaForm LDWDD
League ranking xG #12xGA #4xT #13xP/match #13Points #13
Key players
- Andrea TiritielloCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
- Bernat Guiu VilanovaLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.18
- Luca ParodiCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
Final score
1 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Padova 31% · Draw 25% · Virtus Entella 45%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Virtus EntellaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,70fair 8,83+21 %
MissMatchresultat - PadovaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,10fair 12,03-16 %
MissMatch prediction: Padova – Virtus Entella
Predicted score matrix
Virtus Entella →
Padova →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.9%
0–19.2%
0–27.1%
0–33.5%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–07.8%
1–112.4%
1–28.9%
1–34.4%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–05.2%
2–17.6%
2–25.6%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–02.2%
3–13.2%
3–22.3%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.3%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-19%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,26–1,47
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@1.65
Over 2,551%
@2.32EV+13%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Virtus Entella or draw (X2)68%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Andrea Franzoni to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Marco Pompetti to score23%
- Niccolò Squizzato to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Virtus Entella45% probability@3.23PinnacleEV+44%reference odds
- 2 · Virtus Entella45% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
- 2 · Virtus Entella45% probability@2.75LeoVegasEV+23%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Padova | X | 2 · Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.62 | 2.85 | EV+ 23% 2.75 |
| LeoVegas | 2.65 | 2.95 | EV+ 23% 2.75 |
| Nordicbet | 2.62 | 2.85 | EV+ 23% 2.75 |
| Pinnacle | 2.60 | 2.93 | EV+ 44% 3.23 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
1+7 %
41 %36 %
2.44 → 2.60
X0 %
36 %31 %
2.93 → 2.93
2-2 %
31 %26 %
3.30 → 3.23
Over 2,5+5 %
45 %40 %
2.20 → 2.32
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesPadova 1Draw 0Virtus Entella 1
Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Padova
Virtus Entella
Padova (5–8)
Virtus Entella (8–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Padova
Virtus Entella
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Padova
Virtus Entella
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Padova | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 6 |
| xPoints | 5.7 | 7.7 |
| xG per match | 0.97 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Padova | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 0.93 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.51 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 6 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 330 | 380 |
| Passes against per match | 414 | 348 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.7 | 31.6 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Padova | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.6 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.78 |
| Other | Padova | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Alessandro Sorrentino (Padova) | Federico Del Frate (Virtus Entella) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 16 |
| Save % | 75% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Hellas Verona – Catanzaro16 October 2026
- Pisa – Cremonese17 October 2026
- Ascoli – Empoli17 October 2026
- Benevento – Vicenza17 October 2026
- Carrarese – Modena17 October 2026
- Mantova – Palermo17 October 2026
- Cesena – Avellino18 October 2026
- Sampdoria – Arezzo18 October 2026
- Juve Stabia – Südtirol18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Padova vs Virtus Entella according to our model?
The model gives Virtus Entella a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Padova 31%, draw 25%, Virtus Entella 45%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Padova vs Virtus Entella?
The model expects 1.26 goals (xG) for Padova and 1.47 for Virtus Entella, 2.73 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Padova or draw (1X) 55%, Virtus Entella or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.