Lommel vs Gent Prediction: Away win 60% (1 Nov 2026)

Belgian Pro League1 November 2026Soevereinstadion, Lommel8°9 km/h

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LommelCounter-attacks & crosses

GentBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Gent (60%)

1 · Lommel 18%X 23%60% Gent · 2

18%

23%

60%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lommel vs Gent (Belgian Pro League, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Lommel win 18%, draw 23%, Gent win 60%. Expected goals (xG): Lommel 0.95, Gent 1.96. Most likely score: 0-2 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Lommel or draw 40%, Gent or draw 82%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Lommel – Gent

Anna Karlsson · 26 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

0-2 is the scoreline sitting at the heart of Lommel and Gent: a controlled away win, built less on spectacle than on the visitors repeatedly forcing the hosts to defend their box. The central question is whether the home side’s counter-attacks and crosses can turn 0.95 expected goals into enough resistance. The model says no more often than not: away win 60%, draw 23%, home win 18%.

That stance has support beyond the result probabilities. The hosts have 12 points to the visitors’ 25, while expected points read 10.4 versus 16.5. More telling is the defensive gap: 1.8 xGA per match for the home side against 0.85 for Gent. The visitors’ own xG per match is only 1.3, compared with 1.1 for Lommel, but this matchup is about one defence yielding too much rather than one attack being unstoppable.

The home team’s direct approach can still matter, especially against a balanced, physical opponent. Both teams to score carries a 53% model probability, so a home goal is far from dismissed. Yet the visitors arrive on 3 straight wins and have scored in 10 consecutive league matches. Their 1.96 expected goals here is the strongest clue: they should create enough to win even if the hosts find a moment on the break. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, although Over 2.5 goals is the marginal lean at 56%; the three leading exact scores, 0-2, 1-1 and 0-1, each sit at 10%.

The cleanest betting position is the away side. LeoVegas offers 1.833, assessed as EV+ with the model’s 60% rating creating a 9% edge. Betsafe and Nordicbet each list 1.82, both assessed at an 8% edge. Back the visitors to win; the LeoVegas price is the sharpest angle.

Lommel

Form LLDWD

League ranking xG #17xGA #13xT #18xP/match #14Points #8

Key players

Lucas SchoofsCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.06
Jason van DuivenRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
Tom ReynersLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.08

Gent

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #12xGA #1xT #12xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Mathias DelorgeCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
Tiago AraujoLBxG 0.09 · xT 0.25
Maksim PaskotsiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Lommel – Gent

Predicted score matrix

Gent →

Lommel →

0–05.7%

0–110.4%

0–210.5%

0–36.8%

0–4+5.3%

1–04.9%

1–110.4%

1–29.9%

1–36.5%

1–4+5.0%

2–02.4%

2–14.8%

2–24.7%

2–33.1%

2–4+2.4%

3–00.8%

3–11.5%

3–21.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-210%
2.1-110%
3.0-110%
4.1-210%
5.0-37%

Expected goals

0,95–1,96

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@1.97

Over 2,556%

@1.80EV+0%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Gent to win60%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Gent to win60%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Josué Yamir Vergara Ortega to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Josué Yamir Vergara Ortega to score25%
Isaiah Jelani Oladele Adedeji Dada-Mascoll to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Gent60% probability@1.83LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds
2 · Gent60% probability@1.82BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Gent60% probability@1.82NordicbetEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lommel	X	2 · Gent
Betsafe	4.20	3.60	EV+ 8% 1.82
LeoVegas	3.85	3.50	EV+ 9% 1.83
Nordicbet	4.20	3.60	EV+ 8% 1.82

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1-3 %

26 %21 %

3.95 → 3.85

X-4 %

28 %23 %

3.65 → 3.50

2+4 %

53 %48 %

1.77 → 1.83

Over 2,5+2 %

56 %51 %

1.73 → 1.77

LeoVegas · 8 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

KAA Gent come into this round on 3 straight wins.
KAA Gent have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lommel

Gent

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lommel (11–11)

Gent (19–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lommel

Gent

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lommel

Gent

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lommel	Gent
Points	12	25
xPoints	10.4	16.5
xG per match	1.1	1.3
xGA per match	1.8	0.85
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.16

Playing style	Lommel	Gent
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.33	0.39
xT per match	0.66	0.96
xTA per match	1.5	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	20	23
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.18
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	20	11
Pass completion %	0.76	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.73
Passes per match	357	386
Passes against per match	436	467
Switches of play per match	23.2	37.7
Long balls per match	33	43

Set pieces	Lommel	Gent
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.04
Corners per match	3.9	4.1
Corners against per match	7.9	4.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.51	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.64

Other	Lommel	Gent
Throw-in control	0.67	0.67

The goalkeepers	Matthias Pieklak (Lommel)	Davy Roef (Gent)
Saves	31	27
Save %	76%	87%
xG prevented	72%	62%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lommel

Fixtures, form & tips

Gent

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Lommel spelschema Gent spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lommel vs Gent according to our model?

The model gives Gent a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lommel 18%, draw 23%, Gent 60%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Lommel vs Gent?

The model expects 0.95 goals (xG) for Lommel and 1.96 for Gent, 2.91 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Lommel or draw (1X) 40%, Gent or draw (X2) 82% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.