Champions League10°1,2 mm8 km/h

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    Borussia DortmundBorussia DortmundPossession & high press
    vs
    Real BetisReal BetisBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Borussia Dortmund (58%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.57 (+9 %)

    Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis · Champions League

    1 · Borussia Dortmund 58%X 21%21% Real Betis · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis (Champions League, Wednesday, 4 November 2026): Borussia Dortmund win 58%, draw 21%, Real Betis win 21%. Expected goals (xG): Borussia Dortmund 1.91, Real Betis 1.08. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Borussia Dortmund or draw 79%, Real Betis or draw 42%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 27 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    58% is the number that matters: Borussia Dortmund are the right side at home, despite Real Betis arriving on 3 straight wins and holding a 9–6 points edge. The visitors also lead xPoints, 6.0 to 5.6, but Dortmund’s 2.5 xG per match is the stronger attacking signal.

    The hosts’ possession and high press should test a Betis defence allowing 0.86 xGA per match, while Dortmund concede 1.2. That points to a controlled home win rather than a mismatch. The model’s most likely exact score is 1-1 at 11%, but the broader probabilities favour Dortmund, 58% to 21% for either a draw or away win. My score call is 2-1.

    Over 2.5 goals has a 57% model probability, so the goals lean is over, with both teams to score also at 57%. Still, the sharper price angle is not necessarily the obvious one: LeoVegas offer Dortmund at 1.8, assessed as EV+ with a 5% edge, while under 3.5 at 1.6 is also rated EV+ with a 4% edge. The home win at 1.8 is the bet.

    Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
    Form WLWLW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #16xT #9xP/match #10Points #15
    Key players
    • Waldemar AntonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
    • Serhou GuirassyLWxG 1.93 · xT 0.01
    • Joey VeermanCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.26
    Real BetisReal Betis
    Form WWW
    League ranking xG #17xGA #5xT #21xP/match #5Points #7
    Key players
    • Marc BartraCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.08
    • IscoCAMxG 0.87 · xT 0.25
    • NatanCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.00

    Match prediction: Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis

    Predicted score matrix

    Real Betis →
    Borussia Dortmund →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.3%
    0–15.1%
    0–22.9%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–09.3%
    1–110.7%
    1–25.6%
    1–32.0%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–09.2%
    2–19.9%
    2–25.4%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–05.8%
    3–16.3%
    3–23.4%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–04.3%
    4+–14.6%
    4+–22.5%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.3-16%
    Expected goals
    1,91–1,08
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @2.57EV+9%
    Over 2,557%
    @1.52

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Borussia Dortmund to win58%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    47%

    Fair odds

    2.13

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Borussia Dortmund to win58%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Serhou Yadaly Guirassy to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Serhou Yadaly Guirassy to score27%
    • Natan Bernardo de Souza to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.543% probability@2.57BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    • Under 2.543% probability@2.57NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
    • Under 0.55% probability@20.00BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Borussia DortmundX2 · Real Betis
    Betsafe
    EV+ 4%
    1.78    		4.054.15
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 5%
    1.80    		3.904.00
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 4%
    1.78    		4.054.15

    Odds updated 27 Oct, 14:37

    Odds movement

    10 %
    55 %50 %

    1.80 → 1.80

    X-1 %
    26 %21 %

    3.95 → 3.90

    20 %
    26 %21 %

    4.00 → 4.00

    Over 2,50 %
    65 %60 %

    1.50 → 1.50

    LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 27/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Real Betis Balompie come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Borussia Dortmund
    Real Betis
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Borussia Dortmund (5–4)
    Real Betis (7–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Borussia Dortmund
    Joey Veerman: 174 passningar, xT 0.58VeermanWaldemar Anton: 170 passningar, xT 0.29AntonJoane Kouakou Gadou: 134 passningar, xT 0.26GadouRamy Bensebaini: 117 passningar, xT 0.39BensebainiDaniel Svensson: 115 passningar, xT 0.57SvenssonJulian Ryerson: 110 passningar, xT 0.23RyersonFelix Nmecha: 96 passningar, xT 0.53NmechaGregor Kobel: 76 passningar, xT 0.06KobelJobe Bellingham: 67 passningar, xT 0.1BellinghamMaximilian Beier: 55 passningar, xT -0.01BeierNico Schlotterbeck: 51 passningar, xT 0.08Schlotterbeck
    Real Betis
    Marc Bartra: 155 passningar, xT 0.26BartraIsco: 135 passningar, xT 0.41IscoAntony: 126 passningar, xT 0.3AntonyPablo Fornals: 125 passningar, xT 0.59FornalsMarc Roca: 119 passningar, xT 0.11RocaNatan: 104 passningar, xT 0.01NatanHector Bellerin: 86 passningar, xT 0.1BellerinFran Garcia: 72 passningar, xT 0.24GarciaÁlvaro Vallés: 70 passningar, xT 0.06VallésAbdessamad Ezzalzouli: 60 passningar, xT 0.62EzzalzouliNelson Deossa: 56 passningar, xT -0.02Deossa
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Borussia Dortmund
    Joey Veerman: 174 passningar, xT 0.58VeermanWaldemar Anton: 170 passningar, xT 0.29AntonJoane Kouakou Gadou: 134 passningar, xT 0.26GadouRamy Bensebaini: 117 passningar, xT 0.39BensebainiDaniel Svensson: 115 passningar, xT 0.57SvenssonJulian Ryerson: 110 passningar, xT 0.23RyersonFelix Nmecha: 96 passningar, xT 0.53NmechaGregor Kobel: 76 passningar, xT 0.06KobelJobe Bellingham: 67 passningar, xT 0.1BellinghamMaximilian Beier: 55 passningar, xT -0.01BeierNico Schlotterbeck: 51 passningar, xT 0.08Schlotterbeck
    Real Betis
    Marc Bartra: 155 passningar, xT 0.26BartraIsco: 135 passningar, xT 0.41IscoAntony: 126 passningar, xT 0.3AntonyPablo Fornals: 125 passningar, xT 0.59FornalsMarc Roca: 119 passningar, xT 0.11RocaNatan: 104 passningar, xT 0.01NatanHector Bellerin: 86 passningar, xT 0.1BellerinFran Garcia: 72 passningar, xT 0.24GarciaÁlvaro Vallés: 70 passningar, xT 0.06VallésAbdessamad Ezzalzouli: 60 passningar, xT 0.62EzzalzouliNelson Deossa: 56 passningar, xT -0.02Deossa

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBorussia DortmundReal Betis
    Points69
    xPoints5.66
    xG per match2.51.9
    xGA per match1.20.86
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.740.33
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.070.04
    Playing styleBorussia DortmundReal Betis
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.560.7
    xT per match1.61.1
    xTA per match0.821.1
    Won balls, offensive half3125
    Pressing intensity0.230.21
    Pressing efficiency0.260.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.19
    Entries into the box per match2019
    Entries into the box against1311
    Pass completion %0.80.83
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.76
    Passes per match481473
    Passes against per match422412
    Switches of play per match34.136.6
    Long balls per match3335
    Set piecesBorussia DortmundReal Betis
    xG from free kicks00.11
    Corners per match9.44.7
    Corners against per match5.23.4
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.57
    First touch, defensive corners %0.270.6
    OtherBorussia DortmundReal Betis
    Throw-in control0.690.69
    The goalkeepersGregor Kobel (Borussia Dortmund)Álvaro Vallés (Real Betis)
    Saves115
    Save %79%56%
    xG prevented41%31%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Borussia Dortmund
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Real Betis
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Borussia Dortmund spelschemaReal Betis spelschema

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis according to our model?

    The model gives Borussia Dortmund a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Borussia Dortmund 58%, draw 21%, Real Betis 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis?

    The model expects 1.91 goals (xG) for Borussia Dortmund and 1.08 for Real Betis, 2.99 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Borussia Dortmund or draw (1X) 79%, Real Betis or draw (X2) 42% and no draw (12) 79%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.