Porto vs Napoli Prediction: Home win 60% (4 Nov 2026)

Champions League4 November 202614°7 km/h

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PortoLow block & direct

NapoliBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Porto (60%)

1 · Porto 60%X 21%19% Napoli · 2

60%

21%

19%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Porto vs Napoli (Champions League, Wednesday, 4 November 2026): Porto win 60%, draw 21%, Napoli win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Porto 1.82, Napoli 1.22. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Porto or draw 81%, Napoli or draw 40%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 27 October 2026.

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Analysis: Porto – Napoli

Anna Karlsson · 27 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Porto are rated 60% to beat Napoli, and that is the central tension: Porto themselves have lost 4 in a row. The analysis still points to the hosts, but the most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 at 11%; 2-1 follows at 10%, with 1-0 at 8%. This is a home-win case built on the full score distribution, not a claim that the single most likely score settles the match.

The underlying projection gives the hosts 1.82 expected goals to the visitors’ 1.22, explaining the 60%, 21%, 19% split across home win, draw and away win. Porto’s low defence & direct profile points toward transitions rather than a match dictated by Napoli’s balanced & physical approach. The visitors have the stronger attacking season figure, 1.2 xG per match against 0.8, but that alone does not overturn the projected scoring gap.

Napoli also lead 3 points to 0 and 2.7 xPoints to 2.6. Those are season-form indicators, separate from the match model, and they complicate any easy home narrative. The hosts’ 2.2 xGA per match is better than the visitors’ 2.4, yet neither defence has offered enough protection to dismiss Porto’s losing run. Their direct play has to produce finishing, not just forward momentum.

That defensive vulnerability tilts the total upward. Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%, while both teams to score carries the same 59%, despite 1-1 being the modal scoreline. There is no real contradiction: the draw is the likeliest isolated result, but the wider outcome range still favours over 2.5. I lean over, though narrowly.

At LeoVegas, home at odds 2.25 is the standout EV+ assessment: the model rates it 60%, a 34% edge. Over 3.5 at odds 2.8 has a 36% model rating and a 1% edge; over 2.5 at odds 1.727 sits at 59% and a 1% edge. Back the hosts at 2.25: not a guarantee, but the sharpest price-model mismatch.

Porto

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #51xGA #46xT #42xP/match #49Points #53

Key players

Gabri VeigaCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.07
Pablo Paulino RosarioFxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
Eduardo Gabriel Aquino CossaLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.02

Napoli

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #40xGA #49xT #27xP/match #47Points #39

Key players

Rafa MarinCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
Kevin De BruyneFxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
Amir RrahmaniCBxG 0.35 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Porto – Napoli

Predicted score matrix

Napoli →

Porto →

0–05.1%

0–15.5%

0–23.5%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.6%

1–08.4%

1–110.9%

1–26.5%

1–32.6%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.9%

2–19.7%

2–25.9%

2–32.4%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.8%

3–15.9%

3–23.6%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.6%

4+–03.3%

4+–14.0%

4+–22.5%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-08%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,82–1,22

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.05

Over 2,559%

@1.79EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Porto to win60%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Porto to win60%
Over 2.5 goals59%
André Miguel Valente da Silva to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals59%
André Miguel Valente da Silva to score35%
Stanislav Lobotka to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Porto60% probability@2.25LeoVegasEV+34%reference odds
1 · Porto60% probability@2.15BetsafeEV+28%reference odds
1 · Porto60% probability@2.15NordicbetEV+28%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Porto	X	2 · Napoli
Betsafe	EV+ 28% 2.15	3.60	3.25
LeoVegas	EV+ 34% 2.25	3.45	3.10
Nordicbet	EV+ 28% 2.15	3.60	3.25

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:37

Odds movement

1-1 %

46 %41 %

2.18 → 2.15

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.60 → 3.60

2+3 %

32 %27 %

3.15 → 3.25

Over 2,50 %

56 %51 %

1.79 → 1.79

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 27/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

FC Porto have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Porto

Napoli

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Porto (2–6)

Napoli (5–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Porto

Napoli

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Porto

Napoli

The teams in numbers

Performance	Porto	Napoli
Points	0	3
xPoints	2.6	2.7
xG per match	0.8	1.2
xGA per match	2.2	2.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.07	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.45	0.31

Playing style	Porto	Napoli
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.2	0.27
xT per match	0.74	1.1
xTA per match	1.5	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	22	17
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.2	0.19
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.15
Entries into the box per match	9	11
Entries into the box against	14	20
Pass completion %	0.76	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.78
Passes per match	322	418
Passes against per match	528	546
Switches of play per match	13.5	35.1
Long balls per match	24	36

Set pieces	Porto	Napoli
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	1.7	2.1
Corners against per match	4.4	5.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.2
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.8	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.47

Other	Porto	Napoli
Throw-in control	0.77	0.79

The goalkeepers	Diogo Costa (Porto)	Alex Meret (Napoli)
Saves	14	7
Save %	70%	100%
xG prevented	43%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Porto

Fixtures, form & tips

Napoli

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Porto spelschema Napoli spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Porto vs Napoli according to our model?

The model gives Porto a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Porto 60%, draw 21%, Napoli 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Porto vs Napoli?

The model expects 1.82 goals (xG) for Porto and 1.22 for Napoli, 3.04 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Porto or draw (1X) 81%, Napoli or draw (X2) 40% and no draw (12) 79%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.