01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Olympiacos to win66%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Greek Super League14°11 km/h
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KifisiaPossession controlvs
OlympiacosPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Olympiacos (66%)Best value by the model: Yes @ 2.20 (+6 %)
Kifisia vs Olympiacos · Greek Super League
1 · Kifisia 11%X 23%66% Olympiacos · 2
23%
66%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kifisia vs Olympiacos (Greek Super League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Kifisia win 11%, draw 23%, Olympiacos win 66%. Expected goals (xG): Kifisia 0.83, Olympiacos 1.88. Most likely score: 0-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Kifisia or draw 34%, Olympiacos or draw 89%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Kifisia – Olympiacos
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The central question is whether Kifisia can turn their possession control into territory before Olympiacos’ high press turns it into a trap. The model sees a 66% away win, against 11% for the hosts and 23% for the draw, because the visitors project to create 1.88 expected goals while allowing a very different game to their opponent: Kifisia are at 0.83.
That gap is not merely about the table. Olympiacos have 16 points to Kifisia’s 11, but the expected-points gap is tighter, 12.6 versus 12.1. The decisive separation is defensive: the visitors concede 0.65 xGA per match, while the hosts concede 1.1. If Kifisia cannot escape the first wave of pressure cleanly, their possession profile risks becoming harmless circulation rather than a route to chances.
Olympiacos arrive on 3 straight wins, so their current direction supports the model rather than challenging it. Their head-to-head record since 2023 is 2 matches: Kifisia have 0W, 1D and 1L. That is a small sample and weighs less than form and expected goals. The 1.7 to 1.3 xG-per-match edge also belongs to the visitors, even if the hosts’ underlying numbers suggest they are not as far behind as the raw points imply.
Rain of 4.8 mm at 14.4°C should make control and clean passing harder, usually suppressing goals, and that effect is already baked into the model’s numbers. Still, Over 2.5 goals holds a narrow 51% lean, with both teams to score at 48%; it is a marginal over rather than a confident one. The model’s leading scorelines are 0-1 and 0-2 at 12% each, ahead of 1-1 at 11%. My call is 0-1: Olympiacos win, with Under 2.5 the sharper match-reading angle despite the model’s slight Over lean.
KifisiaForm DWWLW
League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #3xP/match #6Points #7
Key players
- Jorge Marcos Pombo EscobarCAMxG 0.34 · xT 0.18
- Konstantinos RoukounakisCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
- Jeremy Cornelis Jacobus AntonisseLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.10
OlympiacosForm DLWWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #5xP/match #3Points #3
Key players
- Francisco Leonel Lima Silva MachadoCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
- Lorenzo PirolaCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.03
- Santiago HezzeCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Kifisia – Olympiacos
Predicted score matrix
Olympiacos →
Kifisia →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–112.2%
0–211.8%
0–37.4%
0–4+5.3%
1
1–05.2%
1–110.7%
1–29.8%
1–36.1%
1–4+4.4%
2
2–02.3%
2–14.3%
2–24.0%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–00.6%
3–11.2%
3–21.1%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.2%
4+–10.3%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-112%
- 2.0-212%
- 3.1-111%
- 4.1-210%
- 5.0-37%
Expected goals
0,83–1,88
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@1.90
Over 2,551%
@2.00EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Olympiacos to win66%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- João Pedro Ferreira Silva to score36%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- João Pedro Ferreira Silva to score36%
- Clément Jolibois Houilliez to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Both teams to score: Yes48% probability@2.20Bet365EV+6%reference odds
- Over 2.551% probability@2.00Bet365EV+2%reference odds
- X · Draw23% probability@4.38PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kifisia | X | 2 · Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 7.50 | 4.10 | 1.39 |
| Pinnacle | 7.54 | EV+ 1% 4.38 | 1.41 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 06:01
Odds movement
1+3 %
15 %10 %
7.35 → 7.54
X+1 %
24 %19 %
4.32 → 4.38
2+1 %
69 %64 %
1.40 → 1.41
Over 2,5+1 %
53 %48 %
1.88 → 1.90
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesKifisia 0Draw 1Olympiacos 1
Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Olympiacos Piraeus come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kifisia
Olympiacos
Kifisia (10–11)
Olympiacos (7–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kifisia
Olympiacos
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kifisia
Olympiacos
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kifisia | Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 16 |
| xPoints | 12.1 | 12.6 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 0.65 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Kifisia | Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.62 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 36 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 7 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 316 | 401 |
| Passes against per match | 354 | 261 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.7 | 31.8 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Kifisia | Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 7.3 |
| Corners against per match | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.76 |
| Other | Kifisia | Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Wellington Moisés Ramírez Preciado (Kifisia) | Stefan Ortega Moreno (Olympiacos) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 16 |
| Save % | 63% | 89% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 78% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Kifisia spelschemaOlympiacos spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kifisia vs Olympiacos according to our model?
The model gives Olympiacos a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kifisia 11%, draw 23%, Olympiacos 66%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Kifisia vs Olympiacos?
The model expects 0.83 goals (xG) for Kifisia and 1.88 for Olympiacos, 2.70 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Kifisia or draw (1X) 34%, Olympiacos or draw (X2) 89% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.