01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Panathinaikos to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Greek Super League14°3,6 mm6 km/h
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PanathinaikosPossession & high pressvs
AEK AthensPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Panathinaikos (48%)
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens · Greek Super League
1 · Panathinaikos 48%X 26%26% AEK Athens · 2
48%
26%
26%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens (Greek Super League, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Panathinaikos win 48%, draw 26%, AEK Athens win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Panathinaikos 1.65, AEK Athens 1.16. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Panathinaikos or draw 74%, AEK Athens or draw 52%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Panathinaikos – AEK Athens
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
48% puts Panathinaikos ahead of AEK Athens, with the draw and away win each at 26%. The hosts lead 21 to 17 on points and 15.6 to 13.6 on xPoints; their 2.6 xG and 0.58 xGA per match also beat the visitors’ 2.4 and 0.76. The analysis points to a home lean built on control, not romance.
AEK arrive on 3 straight wins and have scored in 10 consecutive league matches, so this is not a clean-sheet sermon. Both sides favour possession and a high press, supporting 56% for both teams to score. The head-to-head since 2023 reads 8 matches, Panathinaikos 3W 1D 4L, a slight AEK edge that does not erase the hosts’ stronger underlying numbers.
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though 1-0 and 2-1 each sit at 10%. Over 2.5 goals carries a narrow 53% lean. Still, the sharp angle is Panathinaikos at 2.2 with LeoVegas: the model rates the home win at 48%, an assessed 6% edge.
PanathinaikosForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Giorgos KyriakopoulosLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.29
- Davide CalabriaRBxG 0.14 · xT 0.23
- Cyriel DessersFxG 0.83 · xT -0.03
AEK AthensForm WDWWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #2xP/match #2Points #2
Key players
- Harold MoukoudiCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.11
- Lazaros RotaRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.17
- Stavros PiliosLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Panathinaikos – AEK Athens
Predicted score matrix
AEK Athens →
Panathinaikos →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.4%
0–16.7%
0–24.1%
0–31.6%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–09.6%
1–111.9%
1–26.7%
1–32.6%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–08.2%
2–19.5%
2–25.5%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–04.5%
3–15.2%
3–23.0%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–02.7%
4+–13.1%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,65–1,16
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@1.95
Over 2,553%
@1.77
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Panathinaikos to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Adriano Jagušić to score46%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Adriano Jagušić to score46%
- Milán Vitális to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Panathinaikos48% probability@2.20LeoVegasEV+6%reference odds
- Over 1.577% probability@1.37Betfair ExchangeEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Panathinaikos | X | 2 · AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 6% 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.95 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 14:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 23 October — the odds have shortened from 1.95 to 1.77 (−9%).
1-6 %
45 %35 %
2.35 → 2.20
X+2 %
33 %23 %
3.25 → 3.30
2+7 %
37 %27 %
2.75 → 2.95
Over 2,5-9 %
55 %45 %
1.95 → 1.77
LeoVegas · 9 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesPanathinaikos 3Draw 1AEK Athens 4
Goals: 9–13 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- AEK Athens come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- AEK Athens have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
- Panathinaikos Athens win 64% of their home matches all-time (36 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Panathinaikos
AEK Athens
Panathinaikos (18–4)
AEK Athens (21–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Panathinaikos
AEK Athens
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Panathinaikos
AEK Athens
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Panathinaikos | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 17 |
| xPoints | 15.6 | 13.6 |
| xG per match | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.4 | 0.56 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Panathinaikos | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.81 | 0.64 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 20 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 6 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 501 | 449 |
| Passes against per match | 231 | 281 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.2 | 32.8 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Panathinaikos | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.15 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 7.9 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.82 |
| Other | Panathinaikos | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Ignacio Peña Sotorres (Panathinaikos) | Alberto Brignoli (AEK Athens) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 10 |
| Save % | 77% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 65% | 82% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Panathinaikos spelschemaAEK Athens spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens according to our model?
The model gives Panathinaikos a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Panathinaikos 48%, draw 26%, AEK Athens 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens?
The model expects 1.65 goals (xG) for Panathinaikos and 1.16 for AEK Athens, 2.81 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Panathinaikos or draw (1X) 74%, AEK Athens or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.