01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Panetolikos or draw (1X)62%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Greek Super League15°11,7 mm5 km/h
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PanetolikosLow block & directvs
OFI CreteCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Panetolikos (37%)Soft draw
Panetolikos vs OFI Crete · Greek Super League
1 · Panetolikos 37%X 29%34% OFI Crete · 2
37%
29%
34%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Panetolikos vs OFI Crete (Greek Super League, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Panetolikos win 37%, draw 29%, OFI Crete win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Panetolikos 1.32, OFI Crete 1.36. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Panetolikos or draw 66%, OFI Crete or draw 63%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Panetolikos – OFI Crete
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Panetolikos hold a 3W 0D 1L head-to-head edge over OFI Crete since 2023, but four matches is a small sample and it weighs less than current form and expected-goals data. That record gives the hosts a historical reference point, not a reason to ignore a much uglier present: they have lost 5 in a row.
The visitors lead the season picture. They have 13 points to 9, 9.2 xPoints to 7.1, 1.1 xG per match to 0.85, and a markedly better defensive profile at 1.5 xGA against 2.2. That is the tension in this price. OFI have produced more and conceded less, yet the model still gives the home side the narrowest win probability: 37%, against 34% for the visitors and 29% for the draw.
The matchup itself is unlikely to be clean or controlled. Panetolikos are low defence & direct; OFI bring counter attack & crosses. Expected goals sit at 1.32 for the hosts and 1.36 for the visitors, with both teams to score rated at 55%. Rain of 4.2 mm at 13.5°C should generally suppress finishing and tempo, and that effect is already baked into the model’s numbers. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 and 1-0 at 9% each. My goals lean is marginally over 2.5, rated at 50%, rather than a strong conviction.
The home win is the colder betting call. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer 2.92 on Panetolikos, while the model rates them at 37% for a 7% edge; that is an EV+ assessment, not a guarantee. Over 2.5 at 2.08 with Betsafe also carries a 4% edge, but the sharper discrepancy is the home price: Panetolikos at 2.92.
PanetolikosForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #14xT #12xP/match #14Points #10
Key players
- Konstantinos ThymianisCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08
- Diego Esteban PerezCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
- José Mateo Mejía PiedrahitaFxG 0.35 · xT 0.03
OFI CreteForm WDLLW
League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #10xP/match #9Points #6
Key players
- Konstantinos KostoulasCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
- Nikolaos AthanasiouLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
- Dimitrios NikolaouCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Panetolikos – OFI Crete
Predicted score matrix
OFI Crete →
Panetolikos →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.2%
0–19.0%
0–26.4%
0–32.9%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–08.7%
1–112.7%
1–28.4%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.1%
2–25.5%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–02.6%
3–13.6%
3–22.4%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,32–1,36
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,550%
@1.73
Over 2,550%
@2.17EV+4%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Panetolikos or draw (1X)62%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Moussa Djenepo to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Moussa Djenepo to score21%
- Konstantinos Kostoulas to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Panetolikos37% probability@3.14PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- Over 2.550% probability@2.17PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
- Over 4.513% probability@8.00Bet365EV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Panetolikos | X | 2 · OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 0% 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 7% 2.92 | 2.92 | 2.48 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 7% 2.92 | 2.92 | 2.48 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 15% 3.14 | 2.73 | 2.67 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 06:01
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesPanetolikos 3Draw 0OFI Crete 1
Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Panetolikos GFS have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Panetolikos
OFI Crete
Panetolikos (8–16)
OFI Crete (13–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Panetolikos
OFI Crete
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Panetolikos
OFI Crete
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Panetolikos | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 13 |
| xPoints | 7.1 | 9.2 |
| xG per match | 0.85 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| Playing style | Panetolikos | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 0.74 | 0.87 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 289 | 390 |
| Passes against per match | 376 | 368 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.7 | 29.8 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Panetolikos | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 6 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| Other | Panetolikos | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Yevhen Kucherenko (Panetolikos) | Nikolaos Christogeorgos (OFI Crete) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 23 |
| Save % | 70% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 63% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Panetolikos spelschemaOFI Crete spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Panetolikos vs OFI Crete according to our model?
The model gives Panetolikos a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Panetolikos 37%, draw 29%, OFI Crete 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Panetolikos vs OFI Crete?
The model expects 1.32 goals (xG) for Panetolikos and 1.36 for OFI Crete, 2.68 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Panetolikos or draw (1X) 66%, OFI Crete or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.