01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Aris or draw (X2)67%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Greek Super League
Läs på svenska
LevadiakosLow block & directvs
ArisPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Aris (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · Levadiakos @ 3.60 (+20 %)
Levadiakos vs Aris · Greek Super League
1 · Levadiakos 33%X 29%38% Aris · 2
33%
29%
38%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Levadiakos vs Aris (Greek Super League, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Levadiakos win 33%, draw 29%, Aris win 38%. Expected goals (xG): Levadiakos 1.21, Aris 1.35. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Levadiakos or draw 62%, Aris or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Levadiakos – Aris
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
At 3.75, Levadiakos are priced too long against Aris: the model gives the visitors a narrow lean, but the home price looks like the market miss. The probabilities sit at 33%–29%–38%, hardly a platform for treating the favourite as dominant. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%).
Aris arrive on 3 straight wins and hold the clearer season numbers: 16 points to the hosts’ 3, plus 13.0 xPoints against 8.8. Their 1.7 xG per match also dwarfs Levadiakos’ 0.69. Still, the home side have allowed 1.2 xGA per match versus 1.3 for the visitors, and the match xG projection is tight at 1.21–1.35.
Since 2023, Aris lead the head-to-head 2 wins to 1 in 6 meetings, with the other 3 ending level. They have historically dominated this fixture, but it is a small sample and weighs less than current form and expected goals. The 3.3 goals per meeting average is eye-catching, yet it does not match the more restrained present-day projection.
The tactical contrast points toward a controlled contest rather than a shootout. Levadiakos profile as low defence & direct; the visitors favour possession control. Both teams to score rates at 52%, fitting the 1-1 call, but Over 2.5 goals is only 47%. Under 2.5 is the lean.
Aris have the stronger underlying case, but not by enough to dismiss the hosts at this number. LeoVegas offering 3.75 on Levadiakos is assessed as EV+ by the model: a 33% win probability and a 25% edge. The sharp angle is the home win price, not blindly backing the visitors.
LevadiakosForm DLLDD
League ranking xG #13xGA #5xT #13xP/match #11Points #13
Key players
- Panagiotis LiagasCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
- Georgios ManthatisRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
- Moses David CobnanFxG 0.19 · xT 0.08
ArisForm LDWWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #6xP/match #4Points #4
Key players
- FabianoCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.15
- Uroš RačićCAMxG 0.33 · xT 0.12
- Martin Hongla Yma IICDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Levadiakos – Aris
Predicted score matrix
Aris →
Levadiakos →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.1%
0–110.1%
0–27.1%
0–33.2%
0–4+1.5%
1
1–09.0%
1–113.0%
1–28.5%
1–33.9%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–05.6%
2–17.6%
2–25.2%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–02.3%
3–13.1%
3–22.1%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-29%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,21–1,35
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,553%
@1.68
Over 2,547%
@2.05
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Aris or draw (X2)67%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Philana Tinotenda Kadewere to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Octavian George Popescu to score24%
- Martin Hongla Yma II to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Levadiakos33% probability@3.60LeoVegasEV+20%reference odds
- Over 1.573% probability@1.39Betfair ExchangeEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Levadiakos | X | 2 · Aris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 20% 3.60 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 14:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Aris win since 23 October — the odds have shortened from 2.12 to 2.00 (−6%).
1+11 %
29 %24 %
3.25 → 3.60
X+3 %
31 %26 %
3.15 → 3.25
2-6 %
48 %43 %
2.12 → 2.00
Over 2,50 %
47 %42 %
2.05 → 2.05
LeoVegas · 10 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesLevadiakos 1Draw 3Aris 2
Goals: 9–11 (⌀ 3,3)
Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Aris Thessaloniki dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.3 goals per meeting on average.
- Aris Thessaloniki come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Levadiakos
Aris
Levadiakos (0–11)
Aris (13–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Levadiakos
Aris
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Levadiakos
Aris
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Levadiakos | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 16 |
| xPoints | 8.8 | 13 |
| xG per match | 0.69 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| Playing style | Levadiakos | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 0.65 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.87 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 312 | 323 |
| Passes against per match | 353 | 303 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.9 | 30.1 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Levadiakos | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 2.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| Other | Levadiakos | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Niv Eliasi (Levadiakos) | Mário Ricardo da Silva Velho (Aris) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 19 |
| Save % | 63% | 58% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 26% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Levadiakos spelschemaAris spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Levadiakos vs Aris according to our model?
The model gives Aris a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Levadiakos 33%, draw 29%, Aris 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Levadiakos vs Aris?
The model expects 1.21 goals (xG) for Levadiakos and 1.35 for Aris, 2.56 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Levadiakos or draw (1X) 62%, Aris or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.