01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Rapid Wien to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Austrian Bundesliga1°6,1 mm9 km/h
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Austria WienPossession controlvs
Rapid WienBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Rapid Wien (50%)Best value by the model: 1 · Austria Wien @ 4.84 (+28 %)
Austria Wien vs Rapid Wien · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Austria Wien 26%X 23%50% Rapid Wien · 2
26%
23%
50%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Austria Wien vs Rapid Wien (Austrian Bundesliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Austria Wien win 26%, draw 23%, Rapid Wien win 50%. Expected goals (xG): Austria Wien 1.17, Rapid Wien 1.56. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Austria Wien or draw 50%, Rapid Wien or draw 74%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Austria Wien – Rapid Wien
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Eight derby meetings since 2022 read 4W, 1D and 3L in Austria Wien’s favour against Rapid Wien. That historical edge is real, but it does not describe this round’s team strength. The model makes the visitors 50%, the draw 23% and the hosts 26%; Rapid are the clear performance-based lean. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 0-1 at 10% and 1-2 at 9%.
Form is far less forgiving for the hosts. Austria have lost 3 in a row, while Rapid arrive on 5 straight wins and have scored in 12 consecutive league matches. The gap is not merely points — 7 versus 27 — but underlying production: 8.2 xPoints against 19.3, 0.86 xG per match against 2.4, and 1.8 xGA against 0.95. Austria’s possession control meets a balanced, physical visiting side that is producing far more at both ends.
The goal numbers are tight enough to resist any loose derby narrative. Austria project at 1.17 expected goals and Rapid at 1.56. Over 2.5 goals has a narrow 51% model lean, while both teams to score sits at 55%. Rain is expected at -0.0°C with 3.6 mm forecast; rain usually suppresses finishing quality and tempo, and that effect is already baked into the model’s numbers. The score distribution still points first toward 1-1, even as Rapid hold the stronger win case.
The market has created two value assessments worth separating from the match lean. Austria at 4.65 with Betsafe and 4.65 with Nordicbet is rated at 26% by the model, each carrying a 23% edge. Yet the sharper price is under 2.5 at 2.48 with Betsafe: the model rates it 49%, a 21% edge. Rapid are the side the data prefers; under 2.5 is the bet the price has misjudged.
Austria WienForm WDLLL
League ranking xG #12xGA #9xT #8xP/match #12Points #11
Key players
- Manfred FischerCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.12
- Reinhold RanftlRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.24
- Johannes HandlCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
Rapid WienForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #2xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Matthias SeidlCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
- Bendeguz BollaRWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.40
- Nenad CvetkovicCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Austria Wien – Rapid Wien
Predicted score matrix
Rapid Wien →
Austria Wien →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.9%
0–19.8%
0–27.9%
0–34.1%
0–4+2.3%
1
1–07.3%
1–112.3%
1–29.3%
1–34.8%
1–4+2.7%
2
2–04.5%
2–17.0%
2–25.4%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–01.7%
3–12.7%
3–22.1%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,17–1,56
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.48EV+17%
Over 2,551%
@1.53
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Rapid Wien to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Yusuf Demir to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Yusuf Demir to score27%
- Valentino Müller to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Austria Wien26% probability@4.84PinnacleEV+28%reference odds
- 1 · Austria Wien26% probability@4.75Bet365EV+25%reference odds
- Under 2.549% probability@2.48BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Austria Wien | X | 2 · Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 25% 4.75 | 4.10 | 1.56 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 16% 4.40 | 3.85 | 1.68 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 16% 4.40 | 3.85 | 1.68 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 28% 4.84 | 3.95 | 1.67 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 07:36
Odds movement
10 %
22 %17 %
4.84 → 4.84
X0 %
27 %22 %
3.94 → 3.95
20 %
59 %54 %
1.67 → 1.67
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesAustria Wien 4Draw 1Rapid Wien 3
Goals: 12–9 (⌀ 2,6)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- Austria Vienna have lost 3 in a row.
- SK Rapid Vienna come into this round on 5 straight wins.
- SK Rapid Vienna have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Austria Wien
Rapid Wien
Austria Wien (10–20)
Rapid Wien (31–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Austria Wien
Rapid Wien
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Austria Wien
Rapid Wien
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Austria Wien | Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 27 |
| xPoints | 8.2 | 19.3 |
| xG per match | 0.86 | 2.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 0.95 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.64 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Austria Wien | Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.64 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.81 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 356 | 525 |
| Passes against per match | 358 | 358 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.1 | 28.5 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Austria Wien | Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 3.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| Other | Austria Wien | Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Samuel Sahin Radlinger (Austria Wien) | Niklas Hedl (Rapid Wien) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 35 | 31 |
| Save % | 65% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 61% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Austria Wien vs Rapid Wien according to our model?
The model gives Rapid Wien a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Austria Wien 26%, draw 23%, Rapid Wien 50%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Austria Wien vs Rapid Wien?
The model expects 1.17 goals (xG) for Austria Wien and 1.56 for Rapid Wien, 2.73 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Austria Wien or draw (1X) 50%, Rapid Wien or draw (X2) 74% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.