01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sturm Graz to win55%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Austrian Bundesliga6°13 km/h
Läs på svenska
WolfsbergLow block & directvs
Sturm GrazCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Sturm Graz (55%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.50 (+23 %)
Wolfsberg vs Sturm Graz · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Wolfsberg 22%X 23%55% Sturm Graz · 2
22%
23%
55%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Wolfsberg vs Sturm Graz (Austrian Bundesliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Wolfsberg win 22%, draw 23%, Sturm Graz win 55%. Expected goals (xG): Wolfsberg 1.10, Sturm Graz 1.72. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Wolfsberg or draw 45%, Sturm Graz or draw 78%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Wolfsberg – Sturm Graz
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
55% on Sturm Graz is the number that matters. Wolfsberg sit on 5 points to the visitors’ 18, with xPoints at 9.7 versus 15.9; the chance creation gap is equally blunt, 1.0 xG per match against 1.8, while the hosts concede 2.0 xGA to Sturm’s 1.3. Six straight Wolfsberg losses do not invite romance. The analysis points to the visitors, though 1-1, at 12%, is the most likely exact scoreline.
The hosts’ low-defence, direct profile can make this awkward, but Sturm’s counter-attacks and crosses fit a side projected for 1.72 expected goals against 1.10. The over 2.5 lean is marginal at 54%, with both teams scoring at 55%. Historical head-to-head since 2022 favours Wolfsberg—3W, 3D, 0L in six meetings—and has averaged 3.0 goals, but that is not season form.
The betting value sits against the model’s slight goals lean: under 2.5 at 2.58 with Betsafe rates as EV+, assessed at 46% by the model for a 20% edge. Under 1.5 at 5.4 with Betsafe and Nordicbet is also rated 22%, a 21% edge, but it needs too much restraint. Under 2.5 at 2.58 with Betsafe pays the bills.
WolfsbergForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #12xT #12xP/match #11Points #12
Key players
- Nicolas WimmerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
- Giacomo VrioniFxG 0.41 · xT 0.02
- Raffael BehounekCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
Sturm GrazForm WLWWD
League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #3xP/match #4Points #4
Key players
- Jon Gorenc StankovicCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.18
- Emran SogloLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.27
- Arjan MalicCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Wolfsberg – Sturm Graz
Predicted score matrix
Sturm Graz →
Wolfsberg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–19.9%
0–28.8%
0–35.1%
0–4+3.2%
1
1–06.2%
1–111.6%
1–29.7%
1–35.6%
1–4+3.5%
2
2–03.6%
2–16.2%
2–25.3%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–01.3%
3–12.3%
3–22.0%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-06%
Expected goals
1,10–1,72
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.62EV+16%
Over 2,554%
@1.50
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sturm Graz to win55%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Jacob Peter Hödl to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Jacob Peter Hödl to score22%
- Thorsten Schriebl to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.522% probability@5.50Bet365EV+23%reference odds
- Under 2.546% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
- Under 2.546% probability@2.62NordicbetEV+22%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Wolfsberg | X | 2 · Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 3% 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.53 |
| Betsafe | 4.40 | 3.85 | 1.68 |
| LeoVegas | 4.10 | 4.10 | 1.67 |
| Nordicbet | 4.40 | 3.85 | 1.68 |
| Pinnacle | 4.14 | 4.15 | 1.70 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 14:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesWolfsberg 3Draw 3Sturm Graz 0
Goals: 13–5 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- Wolfsberger AC dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
- Wolfsberger AC have lost 6 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Wolfsberg
Sturm Graz
Wolfsberg (7–19)
Sturm Graz (18–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Wolfsberg
Sturm Graz
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Wolfsberg
Sturm Graz
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Wolfsberg | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 18 |
| xPoints | 9.7 | 15.9 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Wolfsberg | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 0.76 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.89 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| Passes per match | 285 | 265 |
| Passes against per match | 402 | 283 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.8 | 20.2 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Wolfsberg | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 7.5 |
| Corners against per match | 6.3 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| Other | Wolfsberg | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Lukas Gütlbauer (Wolfsberg) | Daniil Khudyakov (Sturm Graz) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 22 | 13 |
| Save % | 60% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 62% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Wolfsberg vs Sturm Graz according to our model?
The model gives Sturm Graz a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wolfsberg 22%, draw 23%, Sturm Graz 55%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Wolfsberg vs Sturm Graz?
The model expects 1.10 goals (xG) for Wolfsberg and 1.72 for Sturm Graz, 2.82 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Wolfsberg or draw (1X) 45%, Sturm Graz or draw (X2) 78% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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