KFUM vs Vålerenga: Prediction & Odds (12 Oct 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien12 October 20266°10 km/h

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KFUMBalanced & physical

2–1

VålerengaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Vålerenga (44%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.75 (+2 %)

1 · KFUM 29%X 27%44% Vålerenga · 2

29%

27%

44%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for KFUM vs Vålerenga (Norwegian Eliteserien, Monday, 12 October 2026): KFUM win 29%, draw 27%, Vålerenga win 44%. Expected goals (xG): KFUM 1.32, Vålerenga 1.74. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: KFUM or draw 56%, Vålerenga or draw 71%. Prediction updated Friday, 2 October 2026.

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Analysis: KFUM – Vålerenga

Anna Karlsson · 12 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The numbers suggest a distinct advantage for Vålerenga as they prepare to visit KFUM, with a 44% probability of victory according to the model. The clash between these two balanced and physical sides is expected to be tight, but Vålerenga's slight superiority in expected goals and expected points gives them the upper hand. A 1-1 draw is the most likely scoreline at 11%, yet the visitors are favored for a 1-2 win at 9%, highlighting their potential to edge this contest.

Despite being two points behind KFUM in the standings, Vålerenga's expected points (29.0) tell a different story, suggesting they have performed better than their league position indicates. Their attacking prowess, with an xG of 1.6 per match compared to KFUM’s 1.1, is a key factor. This offensive edge, coupled with a slightly better defensive record (xGA 1.6 to 1.8), paints the picture of a team that should, perhaps, have more points on the board.

The head-to-head record, albeit from a small sample of three games, shows a slight edge for Vålerenga with one win and two draws. While not definitive, it reinforces the model's leaning towards the visitors. The odds offered by LeoVegas and Nordicbet at 2.3 present a minor value opportunity (1% edge) for betting on an away win, aligning with the statistical lean.

With a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams likely to score, the match looks set to be open and high-scoring. However, for those looking for an alternative betting angle, the under 2.5 goals market at 2.48 with Nordicbet also presents a marginal value based on the model’s 41% rating. Either way, the spotlight is on Vålerenga to capitalize on their statistical edge and claim a narrow victory.

KFUM

Form DLLWW

League ranking xG #16xGA #10xT #14xP/match #14Points #11

Key players

Teodor Berg HaltvikFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
Bilal NjieLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.08
Magnus Wolff EikremFxG 0.14 · xT 0.29

Vålerenga

Form DLDLD

League ranking xG #7xGA #9xT #5xP/match #7Points #13

Key players

Carl LangeCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.12
Henrik BjordalRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.18
Sebastian JarlCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.12

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: KFUM 29% · Draw 27% · Vålerenga 44%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - VålerengaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,59fair 6,28-11 %

Miss

Matchresultat - KFUM OsloBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,14fair 10,93-35 %

Miss

Match prediction: KFUM – Vålerenga

Predicted score matrix

Vålerenga →

KFUM →

0–05.0%

0–17.8%

0–27.1%

0–34.1%

0–4+2.7%

1–05.8%

1–111.1%

1–29.4%

1–35.5%

1–4+3.5%

2–04.1%

2–17.1%

2–26.2%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.3%

3–01.8%

3–13.1%

3–22.7%

3–31.6%

3–4+1.0%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,32–1,74

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.40

Over 2,559%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Vålerenga or draw (X2)71%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Vålerenga or draw (X2)71%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Mathias Grundetjern to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Mathias Grundetjern to score30%
Magnus Hee Westergaard to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw27% probability@3.75PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
2 · Vålerenga44% probability@2.30NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
2 · Vålerenga44% probability@2.30PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · KFUM	X	2 · Vålerenga
Betsafe	2.90	3.65	EV+ 1% 2.28
LeoVegas	2.85	3.60	2.25
Nordicbet	2.95	EV+ 0% 3.70	EV+ 1% 2.30
Pinnacle	3.02	EV+ 2% 3.75	EV+ 1% 2.30

Odds updated 12 Oct, 13:35

Odds movement

1+6 %

35 %30 %

2.84 → 3.02

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.74 → 3.75

2-1 %

44 %39 %

2.33 → 2.30

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 12/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

KFUM 0Draw 2Vålerenga 1

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 2,3)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

KFUM

Vålerenga

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

KFUM (25–35)

Vålerenga (34–43)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

KFUM

Vålerenga

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

KFUM

Vålerenga

The teams in numbers

Performance	KFUM	Vålerenga
Points	25	23
xPoints	25	29
xG per match	1.1	1.6
xGA per match	1.8	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.29

Playing style	KFUM	Vålerenga
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.35
Field tilt	0.4	0.52
xT per match	0.9	1.2
xTA per match	1.3	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	23	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.29
Entries into the box per match	12	16
Entries into the box against	17	16
Pass completion %	0.72	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.7
Passes per match	326	373
Passes against per match	441	380
Switches of play per match	19.3	24.7
Long balls per match	28	33

Set pieces	KFUM	Vålerenga
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.01
Corners per match	4.1	6.8
Corners against per match	5.5	5.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.57

Other	KFUM	Vålerenga
Throw-in control	0.72	0.73

The goalkeepers	Emil Ødegaard (KFUM)	Oscar Thore Hedvall (Vålerenga)
Saves	36	68
Save %	74%	61%
xG prevented	57%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

KFUM

Fixtures, form & tips

Vålerenga

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: KFUM spelschema Vålerenga spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins KFUM vs Vålerenga according to our model?

The model gives Vålerenga a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: KFUM 29%, draw 27%, Vålerenga 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in KFUM vs Vålerenga?

The model expects 1.32 goals (xG) for KFUM and 1.74 for Vålerenga, 3.07 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

KFUM or draw (1X) 56%, Vålerenga or draw (X2) 71% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.