EFL League OneOne Call Stadium, Mansfield8°6 km/h

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    Mansfield TownMansfield TownCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Notts CountyNotts CountyPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Mansfield Town (45%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 13.00 (+26 %)

    Mansfield Town vs Notts County · EFL League One

    1 · Mansfield Town 45%X 28%27% Notts County · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Mansfield Town vs Notts County (EFL League One, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Mansfield Town win 45%, draw 28%, Notts County win 27%. Expected goals (xG): Mansfield Town 1.32, Notts County 1.05. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Mansfield Town or draw 73%, Notts County or draw 55%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Mansfield Town – Notts County

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    45% is the number that matters: the model leans Mansfield Town, with Notts County at 27% and the draw at 28%. The hosts are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches and lead on points, 18 to 11. Their counter-attacking and crossing profile also looks better suited to breaking a possession-heavy visiting side.

    The underlying numbers back the home lean without making this a charge-at-the-price fixture. Mansfield lead xPoints 17.6 to 15.5, xG per match 1.7 to 1.0, and concede slightly less by xGA, 1.2 to 1.3. Expected goals sit at 1.32-1.05. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%), narrowly ahead of 1-0 (12%) and 0-0 (10%). That points to under 2.5 goals: over is only 42%, while both teams to score is 48%.

    The stable angle is low scoring. Under 1.5 goals at 3.85 with LeoVegas is assessed as EV+, with the model rating it 31% for a 20% edge. Under 0.5 at 13.0 with Betsafe or Nordicbet is also rated EV+, at 10% and a 26% edge, but under 1.5 is the sharper sensible play.

    Mansfield TownMansfield Town
    Form DWDWW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #3xP/match #5Points #9
    Key players
    • Samuel ReedCDMxG 0.09 · xT 0.17
    • Jon RussellRWxG 0.38 · xT 0.14
    • Stephen MclaughlinLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.36
    Notts CountyNotts County
    Form LLLWD
    League ranking xG #21xGA #9xT #21xP/match #11Points #19
    Key players
    • Daniel KanuLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.02
    • Rod McdonaldCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
    • Rory FinneranFxG 0.09 · xT 0.04

    Match prediction: Mansfield Town – Notts County

    Predicted score matrix

    Notts County →
    Mansfield Town →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.7%
    0–19.4%
    0–25.1%
    0–31.8%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–012.0%
    1–113.3%
    1–26.8%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–08.1%
    2–18.6%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–03.6%
    3–13.8%
    3–22.0%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.6%
    4+–11.7%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.0-19%
    5. 5.2-19%
    Expected goals
    1,32–1,05
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,558%
    @2.02EV+14%
    Over 2,542%
    @1.75

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Mansfield Town or draw (1X)71%
    • Under 3.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.81

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Mansfield Town or draw (1X)71%
    • Under 2.5 goals58%
    • Rhys Derek Oates to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals42%
    • Callum Roberts to score20%
    • Scott Alexander Cameron Robertson to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 0.510% probability@13.00BetsafeEV+26%reference odds
    • Under 0.510% probability@13.00NordicbetEV+26%reference odds
    • Under 1.531% probability@3.80LeoVegasEV+18%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Mansfield TownX2 · Notts County
    Betsafe1.78
    EV+ 2%
    3.60
    EV+ 9%
    4.10
    LeoVegas1.75
    EV+ 5%
    3.70
    EV+ 6%
    4.00
    Nordicbet1.78
    EV+ 2%
    3.60
    EV+ 9%
    4.10

    Odds updated 27 Oct, 11:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Mansfield Town win since 24 October — the odds have shortened from 1.88 to 1.75 (−7%).

    1-7 %
    55 %45 %

    1.88 → 1.75

    X+4 %
    30 %20 %

    3.55 → 3.70

    2+11 %
    30 %20 %

    3.60 → 4.00

    Over 2,5-4 %
    58 %48 %

    1.77 → 1.70

    LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Mansfield Town are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Mansfield Town
    Notts County
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Mansfield Town (20–16)
    Notts County (11–14)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Mansfield Town
    Samuel Reed: 185 passningar, xT 0.93ReedAdedeji Oshilaja: 160 passningar, xT -0.01OshilajaRyan Joseph Sweeney: 145 passningar, xT 0.44SweeneyStephen Mclaughlin: 112 passningar, xT 1.57MclaughlinJon Russell: 103 passningar, xT 0.57RussellElliott Jack Hewitt: 102 passningar, xT 0.4HewittLiam Francis Thompson: 96 passningar, xT 0.05ThompsonLiam Roberts: 95 passningar, xT 0.1RobertsRegan Hendry: 88 passningar, xT 0.28HendryNathan Daniel Moriah-Welsh: 78 passningar, xT 0.89Moriah-WelshJordan Bowery: 59 passningar, xT 0.12Bowery
    Notts County
    Jacob Bedeau: 194 passningar, xT 0.36BedeauLucas Ness: 148 passningar, xT 0.13NessRory Finneran: 126 passningar, xT 0.19FinneranRod Mcdonald: 121 passningar, xT 0.22McdonaldIshé Barrington Samuels-Smith: 117 passningar, xT 0.5Samuels-SmithNick Tsaroulla: 106 passningar, xT 0.37TsaroullaJames Andrew Gibbons: 99 passningar, xT 0.2GibbonsJames Belshaw: 96 passningar, xT 0.18BelshawConor Grant: 78 passningar, xT 0.05GrantMatt Palmer: 75 passningar, xT 0.23PalmerScott Robertson: 73 passningar, xT 0.13Robertson
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Mansfield Town
    Samuel Reed: 185 passningar, xT 0.93ReedAdedeji Oshilaja: 160 passningar, xT -0.01OshilajaRyan Joseph Sweeney: 145 passningar, xT 0.44SweeneyStephen Mclaughlin: 112 passningar, xT 1.57MclaughlinJon Russell: 103 passningar, xT 0.57RussellElliott Jack Hewitt: 102 passningar, xT 0.4HewittLiam Francis Thompson: 96 passningar, xT 0.05ThompsonLiam Roberts: 95 passningar, xT 0.1RobertsRegan Hendry: 88 passningar, xT 0.28HendryNathan Daniel Moriah-Welsh: 78 passningar, xT 0.89Moriah-WelshJordan Bowery: 59 passningar, xT 0.12Bowery
    Notts County
    Jacob Bedeau: 194 passningar, xT 0.36BedeauLucas Ness: 148 passningar, xT 0.13NessRory Finneran: 126 passningar, xT 0.19FinneranRod Mcdonald: 121 passningar, xT 0.22McdonaldIshé Barrington Samuels-Smith: 117 passningar, xT 0.5Samuels-SmithNick Tsaroulla: 106 passningar, xT 0.37TsaroullaJames Andrew Gibbons: 99 passningar, xT 0.2GibbonsJames Belshaw: 96 passningar, xT 0.18BelshawConor Grant: 78 passningar, xT 0.05GrantMatt Palmer: 75 passningar, xT 0.23PalmerScott Robertson: 73 passningar, xT 0.13Robertson

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMansfield TownNotts County
    Points1811
    xPoints17.615.5
    xG per match1.71
    xGA per match1.21.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.280.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.22
    Playing styleMansfield TownNotts County
    Build-up efficiency0.310.3
    Field tilt0.50.38
    xT per match1.20.68
    xTA per match0.990.91
    Won balls, offensive half2727
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.340.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.28
    Entries into the box per match169
    Entries into the box against1112
    Pass completion %0.690.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.640.68
    Passes per match288273
    Passes against per match324361
    Switches of play per match26.911.6
    Long balls per match3621
    Set piecesMansfield TownNotts County
    xG from free kicks0.050.04
    Corners per match5.24.3
    Corners against per match4.75
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.470.35
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.77
    OtherMansfield TownNotts County
    Throw-in control0.680.74
    The goalkeepersLiam Roberts (Mansfield Town)James Belshaw (Notts County)
    Saves2124
    Save %70%67%
    xG prevented44%51%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Mansfield Town
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Notts County
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Mansfield Town spelschemaNotts County spelschema

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Mansfield Town vs Notts County according to our model?

    The model gives Mansfield Town a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mansfield Town 45%, draw 28%, Notts County 27%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Mansfield Town vs Notts County?

    The model expects 1.32 goals (xG) for Mansfield Town and 1.05 for Notts County, 2.37 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Mansfield Town or draw (1X) 73%, Notts County or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 72%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.