01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sheffield Wednesday to win51%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
EFL League OneHillsborough, Sheffield10°17 km/h
Läs på svenska
Sheffield WednesdayPossession control5–0
WimbledonLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Sheffield Wednesday (51%)Best value by the model: 2 · Wimbledon @ 5.20 (+20 %)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Wimbledon · EFL League One
1 · Sheffield Wednesday 51%X 26%23% Wimbledon · 2
51%
26%
23%
Prediction summary
Final score 5–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sheffield Wednesday vs Wimbledon (EFL League One, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Sheffield Wednesday win 51%, draw 26%, Wimbledon win 23%. Expected goals (xG): Sheffield Wednesday 1.66, Wimbledon 0.92. Most likely score: 1-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Sheffield Wednesday or draw 77%, Wimbledon or draw 49%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Sheffield Wednesday – Wimbledon
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT:
A possession-heavy Sheffield Wednesday takes on a defensively inclined AFC Wimbledon, suggesting a tactical clash that might not light up the scoreboard. The home side, with a 51% win probability, seems poised to control the match, leveraging their recent unbeaten streak of six league games. In stark contrast, Wimbledon relies on a low block and direct play, a strategy that's yet to consistently yield results this season.
With expected goals predicting 1.66 for the Owls and just 0.92 for the visitors, the numbers clearly favor the hosts. They lead Wimbledon 15 points to 12, and also in xPoints, where they lead 12.5 to 10.6. It's Sheffield Wednesday's defensive solidity, conceding just 1.2 xGA per match compared to the visitors' 1.5, which bolsters their edge. The model pinpoints scorelines like 1-0 and 2-0 as probable, confirming that even a goal might be a tough ask for the visitors.
The probability of over 2.5 goals sits at a mere 48%, while both teams scoring is slightly higher at 49%, indicating a match that's likely to stay under the radar in terms of goals. This aligns with the betting market, where under 2.5 goals presents enticing value at odds of 2.12 with LeoVegas, offering an 11% edge according to the model.
For those eyeing an even more conservative approach, the under 3.5 goals at 1.45 provides a safer yet still valuable option. However, for those willing to take a bolder stance, the under 1.5 at 4.0 might just be the sharper play. All signs point to a Sheffield Wednesday victory in a low-scoring affair, cementing the under as the angle to watch.
Sheffield WednesdayForm WWDDD
League ranking xG #3xGA #6xT #10xP/match #4Points #8
Key players
- Yan ValeryRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.21
- Barry BannanCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.09
- Jamal LoweFxG 0.94 · xT 0.08
WimbledonForm WWDDL
League ranking xG #18xGA #16xT #15xP/match #18Points #12
Key players
- Steven Jeffrey SeddonLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.14
- Jayden Connor StockleyFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02
- Andrew Kyere YiadomRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
Final score
5 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 51% · Draw 26% · Wimbledon 23%
Match prediction: Sheffield Wednesday – Wimbledon
Predicted score matrix
Wimbledon →
Sheffield Wednesday →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.9%
0–16.7%
0–23.2%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–012.2%
1–111.9%
1–25.3%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.4%
2–19.6%
2–24.4%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–05.7%
3–15.3%
3–22.4%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–03.5%
4+–13.2%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-012%
- 2.1-112%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,66–0,92
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@2.23EV+11%
Over 2,548%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sheffield Wednesday to win51%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Mason Paul James Burstow to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Mason Paul James Burstow to score22%
- Alistair Oluwashaun Smith to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Wimbledon23% probability@5.20LeoVegasEV+20%reference odds
- Under 2.552% probability@2.23PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
- 2 · Wimbledon23% probability@4.94PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sheffield Wednesday | X | 2 · Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.55 | EV+ 8% 4.10 | EV+ 20% 5.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | EV+ 12% 4.26 | EV+ 14% 4.94 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
1-2 %
60 %55 %
1.68 → 1.64
X+5 %
25 %20 %
4.05 → 4.26
2+9 %
23 %18 %
4.53 → 4.94
Over 2,50 %
59 %54 %
1.68 → 1.68
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Sheffield Wednesday are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sheffield Wednesday
Wimbledon
Sheffield Wednesday (15–8)
Wimbledon (7–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sheffield Wednesday
Wimbledon
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sheffield Wednesday
Wimbledon
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sheffield Wednesday | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 12 |
| xPoints | 12.5 | 10.6 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.53 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Sheffield Wednesday | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.94 |
| xTA per match | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 364 | 241 |
| Passes against per match | 263 | 308 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.5 | 12.5 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Sheffield Wednesday | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 6.7 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| Other | Sheffield Wednesday | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Joseph Patrick Lumley (Sheffield Wednesday) | Josef John Bursik (Wimbledon) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 23 |
| Save % | 74% | 89% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 87% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Sheffield Wednesday spelschemaWimbledon spelschema
- Mansfield Town – Oxford United15 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Milton Keynes Dons – Luton Town17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Peterborough United – Burton Albion17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Stockport County – Bromley17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Wycombe Wanderers – Notts County17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Barnsley – Cambridge United17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Bradford City – Stevenage17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Leyton Orient – Blackpool17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Wigan Athletic – Reading17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sheffield Wednesday vs Wimbledon according to our model?
The model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sheffield Wednesday 51%, draw 26%, Wimbledon 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Sheffield Wednesday vs Wimbledon?
The model expects 1.66 goals (xG) for Sheffield Wednesday and 0.92 for Wimbledon, 2.58 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Sheffield Wednesday or draw (1X) 77%, Wimbledon or draw (X2) 49% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Get the bonus
Welcome offer on sport at ComeOn — see the current terms on ComeOn's site.
See ComeOn's terms
Get the bonus
Welcome offer on sport at Hajper — see the current terms on Hajper's site.
See Hajper's terms
Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.