01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Wycombe Wanderers to win46%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
EFL League OneAdams Park, High Wycombe9°21 km/h
Läs på svenska
Wycombe WanderersPossession control2–0
Notts CountyPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Wycombe Wanderers (46%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.03 (+11 %)
Wycombe Wanderers vs Notts County · EFL League One
1 · Wycombe Wanderers 46%X 29%26% Notts County · 2
46%
29%
26%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Wycombe Wanderers vs Notts County (EFL League One, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Wycombe Wanderers win 46%, draw 29%, Notts County win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Wycombe Wanderers 1.50, Notts County 0.99. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Wycombe Wanderers or draw 74%, Notts County or draw 54%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Wycombe Wanderers – Notts County
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Wycombe Wanderers have been on a scoring spree, finding the back of the net in every one of their last 11 league appearances. Their ability to maintain such an offensive drive will be tested against Notts County, who have been struggling to halt a worrying three-match losing streak. The head-to-head record between these two isn't extensive enough to heavily influence our expectations, so the focus remains on current form and statistical models.
The statistics suggest a competitive matchup, but the hosts have a slight edge. Wycombe's ability to generate 1.5 expected goals per match, compared to County's 1.0, hints at a more potent attack. However, defensively, the tables turn: the hosts allow 1.7 xGA per game while the visitors are tighter at the back with 1.2 xGA. This contradiction could lead to a tightly contested battle, possibly leaning towards a narrow victory for the home side.
With the model's lean towards Wycombe and the most likely scoreline being a cautious 1-1 (13%), or a 1-0 win for Wycombe (12%), the overall expectation is for a match that doesn't explode into a high-scoring affair. The model suggests a 45% chance for over 2.5 goals, leaning towards the under, reinforced by both teams' possession-based approaches, which could lead to cautious play focusing on control rather than relentless attacking.
For those seeking value, the under 2.5 goals market presents an intriguing opportunity. Betsafe offers odds of 1.98, with the model assessing a 55% likelihood, translating to an 8% edge. This bet stands out as the sharp angle in a match where defensive strategies might just outshine attacking ambitions.
Wycombe WanderersForm DWWDL
League ranking xG #11xGA #19xT #8xP/match #17Points #15
Key players
- Ewan HendersonCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.21
- Jayden WarehamFxG 0.50 · xT 0.00
- Daniel HarvieLBxG 0.17 · xT 0.19
Notts CountyForm DDLLL
League ranking xG #20xGA #8xT #23xP/match #11Points #22
Key players
- Callum RobertsFxG 0.16 · xT 0.12
- Lucas NessCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
- James Andrew GibbonsCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Final score
2 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Wycombe Wanderers 46% · Draw 29% · Notts County 26%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - WycombeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,10fair 9,14-33 %
MissMatchresultat - Notts CountyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,30fair 20,71-41 %
MissMatch prediction: Wycombe Wanderers – Notts County
Predicted score matrix
Notts County →
Wycombe Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.6%
0–17.8%
0–24.1%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–012.1%
1–112.7%
1–26.1%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.3%
2–19.2%
2–24.6%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–04.7%
3–14.6%
3–22.3%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.4%
4+–12.4%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,50–0,99
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@2.03EV+8%
Over 2,545%
@1.83
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Wycombe Wanderers to win46%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Luke Leahy to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Luke Leahy to score32%
- Scott Alexander Cameron Robertson to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.555% probability@2.03PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
- Under 2.555% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
- Under 2.555% probability@1.98NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Wycombe Wanderers | X | 2 · Notts County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.88 | EV+ 3% 3.60 | 3.70 |
| LeoVegas | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Nordicbet | 1.88 | EV+ 3% 3.60 | 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | EV+ 5% 3.67 | EV+ 0% 3.86 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 12:16
Odds movement
10 %
51 %46 %
1.93 → 1.94
X+3 %
29 %24 %
3.57 → 3.67
2+2 %
27 %22 %
3.77 → 3.86
Over 2,50 %
55 %50 %
1.83 → 1.83
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Wycombe Wanderers have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
- Notts County have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Wycombe Wanderers
Notts County
Wycombe Wanderers (14–20)
Notts County (8–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Wycombe Wanderers
Notts County
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Wycombe Wanderers
Notts County
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Wycombe Wanderers | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 7 |
| xPoints | 11.1 | 11.2 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Wycombe Wanderers | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.68 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 0.91 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 312 | 274 |
| Passes against per match | 320 | 341 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.7 | 12.8 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 22 |
| Set pieces | Wycombe Wanderers | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| Other | Wycombe Wanderers | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Conor William Hazard (Wycombe Wanderers) | James Belshaw (Notts County) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 18 |
| Save % | 60% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 32% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Wycombe Wanderers spelschemaNotts County spelschema
- Mansfield Town – Oxford United15 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Milton Keynes Dons – Luton Town17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Peterborough United – Burton Albion17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Sheffield Wednesday – Wimbledon17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Stockport County – Bromley17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Barnsley – Cambridge United17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Bradford City – Stevenage17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Leyton Orient – Blackpool17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Wigan Athletic – Reading17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Wycombe Wanderers vs Notts County according to our model?
The model gives Wycombe Wanderers a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wycombe Wanderers 46%, draw 29%, Notts County 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Wycombe Wanderers vs Notts County?
The model expects 1.50 goals (xG) for Wycombe Wanderers and 0.99 for Notts County, 2.49 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Wycombe Wanderers or draw (1X) 74%, Notts County or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.