Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackpool Prediction: Home win 53% (1 Nov 2026)

EFL League One1 November 2026 15:00 CETHillsborough, Sheffield8°0,5 mm11 km/h

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Sheffield WednesdayPossession control

BlackpoolPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sheffield Wednesday (53%)Best value by the model: 2 · Blackpool @ 4.70 (+3 %)

1 · Sheffield Wednesday 53%X 25%22% Blackpool · 2

53%

25%

22%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackpool (EFL League One, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Sheffield Wednesday win 53%, draw 25%, Blackpool win 22%. Expected goals (xG): Sheffield Wednesday 1.85, Blackpool 1.19. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Sheffield Wednesday or draw 78%, Blackpool or draw 47%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sheffield Wednesday – Blackpool

Oscar Nilsson · 26 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Sheffield Wednesday are the right side of this matchup, but the sharper price sits with Blackpool: the hosts carry a 53% win probability against 22% for the visitors, yet 4.7 asks a different question from simply picking the likelier winner. The model’s headline lean is Wednesday; its betting dissent is away.

The underlying ledger favours the hosts. They have 18 points to 11, while xPoints read 15.8 against 13.8. That is a smaller gap, but still an edge. Wednesday also lead on xG per match, 1.8 to 1.6, and the defensive split is more decisive: 1.3 xGA per match versus Blackpool’s 2.0. The home side have earned their status as favourites.

Still, this is not a clean home-win setup. Expected goals are 1.85 for Wednesday and 1.19 for the visitors, leaving enough attacking output for the away side to matter. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 at 10% and 1-0 at 9%. My score call is 1-1, even though the overall match probabilities point to the hosts as the likelier winners.

Both teams profile as possession-control sides, so this may become a contest of territory rather than a frantic transition game. That does not kill the scoring case. Over 2.5 goals lands at 59%, exactly the same as both teams to score at 59%, and the over 2.5 lean is over. Blackpool’s 2.0 xGA per match leaves a clear route to a Wednesday goal.

The market angle is Blackpool away at odds 4.7 with LeoVegas. The model rates them 22%, giving a 3% edge: that is EV+ as an assessment, not a guarantee. Wednesday are not wrongly favoured; the visitors are simply priced too long.

Sheffield Wednesday

Form DDWLL

League ranking xG #5xGA #10xT #12xP/match #7Points #8

Key players

Jamal LoweFxG 0.76 · xT 0.07
Max LoweLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
Yan ValeryRBxG 0.08 · xT 0.19

Blackpool

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #8xGA #22xT #15xP/match #18Points #20

Key players

Joshua Luke BowlerRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.19
Jordan Lee WilliamsRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.14
Josh EarlCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Sheffield Wednesday – Blackpool

Predicted score matrix

Blackpool →

Sheffield Wednesday →

0–05.1%

0–15.4%

0–23.4%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.5%

1–08.5%

1–110.8%

1–26.3%

1–32.5%

1–4+1.0%

2–08.2%

2–19.7%

2–25.8%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–05.0%

3–16.0%

3–23.6%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.5%

4+–14.2%

4+–22.5%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,85–1,19

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.35

Over 2,559%

@1.53

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sheffield Wednesday to win53%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sheffield Wednesday to win53%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Jamal Akua Lowe to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Jamal Akua Lowe to score30%
Karoy Zidane Lovebourne Anderson to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Blackpool22% probability@4.70LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sheffield Wednesday	X	2 · Blackpool
LeoVegas	1.60	4.00	EV+ 3% 4.70

Odds updated 25 Oct, 15:37

Odds movement

1+1 %

60 %55 %

1.58 → 1.60

X+1 %

25 %20 %

3.95 → 4.00

20 %

22 %17 %

4.70 → 4.70

Over 2,5+1 %

63 %58 %

1.52 → 1.53

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sheffield Wednesday

Blackpool

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sheffield Wednesday (20–12)

Blackpool (16–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sheffield Wednesday

Blackpool

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sheffield Wednesday

Blackpool

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sheffield Wednesday	Blackpool
Points	18	11
xPoints	15.8	13.8
xG per match	1.8	1.6
xGA per match	1.3	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.46	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.24

Playing style	Sheffield Wednesday	Blackpool
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.32
Field tilt	0.58	0.44
xT per match	0.96	0.88
xTA per match	0.83	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	21	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.33
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	12	16
Pass completion %	0.74	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.64
Passes per match	361	285
Passes against per match	259	314
Switches of play per match	21.7	16.7
Long balls per match	27	24

Set pieces	Sheffield Wednesday	Blackpool
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.1
Corners per match	5.5	5.2
Corners against per match	5.4	7.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.58

Other	Sheffield Wednesday	Blackpool
Throw-in control	0.75	0.67

The goalkeepers	Joseph Patrick Lumley (Sheffield Wednesday)	Bailey Peacock Farrell (Blackpool)
Saves	20	52
Save %	74%	74%
xG prevented	52%	57%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sheffield Wednesday

Fixtures, form & tips

Blackpool

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Sheffield Wednesday spelschema Blackpool spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackpool according to our model?

The model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sheffield Wednesday 53%, draw 25%, Blackpool 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackpool?

The model expects 1.85 goals (xG) for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.19 for Blackpool, 3.04 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sheffield Wednesday or draw (1X) 78%, Blackpool or draw (X2) 47% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.