01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Greuther Fürth or draw (1X)68%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
2. BundesligaSportpark Ronhof, Fürth8°0,6 mm9 km/h
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Greuther FürthCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Holstein KielPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Greuther Fürth (45%)
Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga
1 · Greuther Fürth 45%X 26%30% Holstein Kiel · 2
45%
26%
30%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel (2. Bundesliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Greuther Fürth win 45%, draw 26%, Holstein Kiel win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Greuther Fürth 1.71, Holstein Kiel 1.43. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Double chance: Greuther Fürth or draw 70%, Holstein Kiel or draw 55%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Greuther Fürth – Holstein Kiel
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
45% for Greuther Fürth makes the hosts the right side of this matchup, even if 1-1 at 11% is the most likely exact scoreline. The model lean is clearly towards Fürth: 45% home, 26% draw and 30% for Holstein Kiel. That is not a landslide, but it is enough to call the visitors a little too respected by the market.
The goals case is stronger than the 1-1 scoreline initially suggests. Expected goals sit at 1.71 for Fürth and 1.43 for Kiel, while Over 2.5 goals rates at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The other leading scorelines, 2-1 at 9% and 1-2 at 8%, underline the point: 1-1 is the most common single outcome, but three goals or more is the broader probability lean. Over 2.5 is the call.
There is a useful tactical tension here. Fürth profile as counter attack & crosses, while Kiel want possession control. Kiel have the edge in xG per match, despite both teams posting 1.4, and also in xGA per match: 1.4 against Fürth’s 1.6. Yet the hosts have turned the table metrics slightly better, with 9 points to 8 and 11.7 xPoints to 11.5.
That makes the home preference less about claiming Fürth are plainly the better team and more about price versus probability. Kiel’s possession can expose them to the transition game, and Fürth’s 1.71 expected goals is the standout attacking number in the fixture. The visitors’ stronger defensive underlying rate complicates the bet, but not enough to erase the home edge.
The head-to-head since 2023 is split across 2 matches, with Fürth at 1W 0D 1L. It is a small sample and weighs less than form and expected goals. LeoVegas offering home at odds 2.5 looks EV+ on this assessment: the model rates it 45%, a 12% edge. Home win is the sharpest angle, with Over 2.5 goals the natural companion.
Greuther FürthForm DDLWL
League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #11xP/match #10Points #12
Key players
- Felix KlausFxG 0.57 · xT 0.16
- Lukas ReichRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.24
- Luca ItterLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
Holstein KielForm LDLDW
League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #6xP/match #14Points #13
Key players
- Phil HarresFxG 0.59 · xT 0.00
- Jonas MeffertCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
- Guillermo BalziRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Greuther Fürth – Holstein Kiel
Predicted score matrix
Holstein Kiel →
Greuther Fürth →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.7%
0–15.9%
0–24.4%
0–32.1%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–07.1%
1–110.9%
1–27.6%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.3%
2–19.0%
2–26.5%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–03.6%
3–15.1%
3–23.7%
3–31.8%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–13.2%
4+–22.3%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
1,71–1,43
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@2.30
Over 2,561%
@1.53
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Greuther Fürth or draw (1X)68%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Omar Sillah to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Phil Harres to score23%
- Jannis Heuer to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Greuther Fürth45% probability@2.40LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Greuther Fürth | X | 2 · Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | EV+ 7% 2.40 | 3.55 | 2.50 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+1 %
41 %36 %
2.38 → 2.40
X-4 %
28 %23 %
3.70 → 3.55
20 %
39 %34 %
2.50 → 2.50
Over 2,5-1 %
64 %59 %
1.55 → 1.53
LeoVegas · 10 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesGreuther Fürth 1Draw 0Holstein Kiel 1
Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Greuther Fürth
Holstein Kiel
Greuther Fürth (12–16)
Holstein Kiel (10–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Greuther Fürth
Holstein Kiel
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Greuther Fürth
Holstein Kiel
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Greuther Fürth | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 8 |
| xPoints | 11.7 | 11.5 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Greuther Fürth | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| xT per match | 0.91 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.99 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 377 | 379 |
| Passes against per match | 369 | 330 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.8 | 19.8 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Greuther Fürth | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 6.1 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.62 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| Other | Greuther Fürth | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Florian Pascal Hellstern (Greuther Fürth) | Timon Moritz Weiner (Holstein Kiel) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 43 | 29 |
| Save % | 73% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 67% | 74% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Greuther Fürth spelschemaHolstein Kiel spelschema
- Arminia Bielefeld – Eintracht Braunschweig30 October 2026
- Energie Cottbus – Bochum30 October 2026
- Wolfsburg – Osnabrück31 October 2026
- Kaiserslautern – Hertha Berlin31 October 2026
- Darmstadt – Magdeburg31 October 2026
- Karlsruhe – Heidenheim31 October 2026
- St. Pauli – Nürnberg1 November 2026
- Hannover 96 – Dynamo Dresden1 November 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel according to our model?
The model gives Greuther Fürth a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Greuther Fürth 45%, draw 26%, Holstein Kiel 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Greuther Fürth and 1.43 for Holstein Kiel, 3.14 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Greuther Fürth or draw (1X) 70%, Holstein Kiel or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.