01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Aris or draw (X2)66%
- Under 3.5 goals81%
Greek Super League13°10 km/h
Läs på svenska
KifisiaLow block & direct1–2
ArisPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Aris (37%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.70 (+24 %)
Kifisia vs Aris · Greek Super League
1 · Kifisia 33%X 30%37% Aris · 2
33%
30%
37%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kifisia vs Aris (Greek Super League, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Kifisia win 33%, draw 30%, Aris win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Kifisia 1.11, Aris 1.16. Most likely score: 1-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%. Double chance: Kifisia or draw 63%, Aris or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Kifisia – Aris
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
In the clash between Kifisia and Aris, the numbers suggest a finely balanced contest with a slight lean toward the visitors. The model gives Aris a 37% chance of victory compared to Kifisia's 33%, highlighting a narrow edge for Aris. However, the expected goals (xG) tell an intriguing story: Kifisia's 1.11 versus Aris's 1.16 suggests that both teams might struggle to dominate the scoreboard. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 0-1, underscore this notion.
Kifisia, with its low defensive setup paired with a direct playing style, contrasts sharply with Aris's possession-heavy, high-press approach. Despite Aris edging Kifisia with 10 points to 8 in the league, xPoints tilt in favor of the hosts, suggesting they perhaps deserve a bit more than they've earned. This could be a sign of Kifisia's potential to unsettle Aris, particularly at home.
The small head-to-head sample of only two matches doesn't provide a definitive guide to outcomes, but does show Aris with a slight upper hand, having won once and drawn once. However, the hosts' defensive resilience, evidenced by their lower expected goals against (xGA) of 1.1 compared to Aris's 1.6, could make the difference in a tight game.
With just a 40% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score rated at 46%, a low-scoring encounter appears more probable. This leans towards a narrow result, potentially a 1-1 draw or a 0-1 Aris win, in line with the model's preferred outcomes.
For those seeking value, the under 1.5 goals market presents a tantalizing opportunity. At odds of 3.3 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet, and with the model rating it at a 33% chance (offering a 10% edge), it stands out as the sharpest betting angle. Additionally, under 2.5 at odds of 1.78 with Betsafe aligns well, with the model estimating a 60% likelihood, showcasing an 8% edge.
KifisiaForm LLDWW
League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #4xP/match #4Points #9
Key players
- Jorge Marcos Pombo EscobarLWxG 0.45 · xT 0.22
- Konstantinos RoukounakisCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
- Jeremy Cornelis Jacobus AntonisseLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
ArisForm WLLDW
League ranking xG #3xGA #11xT #3xP/match #6Points #6
Key players
- FabianoCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.20
- Philana Tinotenda KadewereFxG 0.71 · xT 0.11
- Uroš RačićCAMxG 0.43 · xT 0.16
Final score
1 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Kifisia 33% · Draw 30% · Aris 37%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - KifisiaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,42fair 16,54-43 %
MissMatchresultat - ArisBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,36fair 15,26-52 %
MissMatch prediction: Kifisia – Aris
Predicted score matrix
Aris →
Kifisia →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.8%
0–111.6%
0–26.9%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–011.1%
1–113.7%
1–27.7%
1–33.0%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–06.4%
2–17.4%
2–24.3%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–02.4%
3–12.7%
3–21.6%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.1-011%
- 4.0-011%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,11–1,16
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+8%
Under 2,560%
@1.92EV+16%
Over 2,540%
@2.25
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Aris or draw (X2)66%
- Under 2.5 goals60%
- Manuel García Alonso to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals40%
- Manuel García Alonso to score26%
- Konstantinos Roukounakis to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.533% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
- Under 1.533% probability@3.70NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
- Under 1.533% probability@3.50LeoVegasEV+17%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kifisia | X | 2 · Aris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 0% 3.00 | 3.15 | 2.28 |
| LeoVegas | 2.95 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 0% 3.00 | 3.15 | 2.28 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 3% 3.08 | EV+ 2% 3.43 | 2.34 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+4 %
34 %29 %
2.96 → 3.08
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.42 → 3.43
20 %
43 %38 %
2.33 → 2.34
Over 2,50 %
50 %45 %
2.03 → 2.02
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesKifisia 0Draw 1Aris 1
Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kifisia
Aris
Kifisia (6–7)
Aris (8–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kifisia
Aris
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kifisia
Aris
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kifisia | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 10 |
| xPoints | 10.1 | 9.2 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| Playing style | Kifisia | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 306 | 328 |
| Passes against per match | 388 | 310 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.6 | 30.8 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Kifisia | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 2.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.6 |
| Other | Kifisia | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Wellington Moisés Ramírez Preciado (Kifisia) | Mário Ricardo da Silva Velho (Aris) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 16 |
| Save % | 71% | 57% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 25% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Kifisia spelschemaAris spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kifisia vs Aris according to our model?
The model gives Aris a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kifisia 33%, draw 30%, Aris 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Kifisia vs Aris?
The model expects 1.11 goals (xG) for Kifisia and 1.16 for Aris, 2.27 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Kifisia or draw (1X) 63%, Aris or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.