01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance OFI Crete or draw (X2)66%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Greek Super League16°9 km/h
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KalamataLow block & direct4–3
OFI CretePossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · OFI Crete (39%)
Kalamata vs OFI Crete · Greek Super League
1 · Kalamata 33%X 28%39% OFI Crete · 2
33%
28%
39%
Prediction summary
Final score 4–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kalamata vs OFI Crete (Greek Super League, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Kalamata win 33%, draw 28%, OFI Crete win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Kalamata 1.20, OFI Crete 1.28. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Kalamata or draw 61%, OFI Crete or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Kalamata – OFI Crete
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
A clash of contrasting styles awaits when Kalamata host OFI Crete in the Greek Super League. The home side's direct approach will meet the visitors' possession-based game, creating a tactical battle that might tilt in favor of the team that dictates the pace. While the model gives a slight edge to OFI Crete with a 39% chance of victory, the expected goals are remarkably close, suggesting a tight contest. Kalamata's direct play will aim to exploit any lapses in OFI's midfield control, while the visitors will look to dominate possession and probe for openings.
Digging into the numbers, a pattern emerges. Despite OFI Crete's superior points tally of 10 compared to Kalamata's 7, the expected points tell a different story. Kalamata's xPoints of 8.3 overshadow the visitors' 6.4, indicating that the hosts might have been unlucky not to convert performances into points. This discrepancy suggests that Kalamata could be more dangerous than their league position implies. Yet, the model still leans towards a narrow victory for the visitors, showing a realistic view of the dynamics at play.
The likelihood of a high-scoring affair seems tempered, with a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% probability for both teams to score. A 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely result at 13%, but the potential for a slim away win at 0-1 looms large. Kalamata's defensive vulnerabilities (1.6 xGA) against OFI's lower xG tally (0.86) might just be the Achilles' heel that the visitors can exploit.
From a betting perspective, the odds offered on OFI Crete to win at 2.6 with Betsafe and Nordicbet present a slight value opportunity. The model's 39% probability suggests a 2% edge, making it a tempting prospect for those looking to back the away side in this delicately poised encounter.
KalamataForm LDWLW
League ranking xG #7xGA #12xT #10xP/match #7Points #10
Key players
- Ahmad Mendes MoreiraLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.16
- Jovanny David Bolívar AlvaradoFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02
- Kenneth Gerardo Vargas VargasRWxG 0.89 · xT 0.24
OFI CreteForm LWWDL
League ranking xG #11xGA #7xT #12xP/match #10Points #5
Key players
- Dimitrios NikolaouCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
- Konstantinos KostoulasCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
- Nikolaos AthanasiouLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
Final score
4 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Kalamata 33% · Draw 28% · OFI Crete 39%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - KalamataBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,59fair 13,54-22 %
HitMatchresultat - OFI KretaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,00fair 12,06-25 %
MissMatch prediction: Kalamata – OFI Crete
Predicted score matrix
OFI Crete →
Kalamata →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.8%
0–110.3%
0–26.8%
0–32.9%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–09.7%
1–113.3%
1–28.2%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.1%
2–17.7%
2–24.9%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–02.4%
3–13.1%
3–22.0%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,20–1,28
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.78
Over 2,545%
@2.20
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance OFI Crete or draw (X2)66%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Andreas Bouchalakis to score16%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Ahmad Mendes Moreira to score26%
- Georgios Kanellopoulos to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · OFI Crete39% probability@3.00Bet365EV+17%reference odds
- 2 · OFI Crete39% probability@2.58PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kalamata | X | 2 · OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.10 | EV+ 17% 3.00 |
| Betsafe | 2.85 | 3.10 | 2.42 |
| LeoVegas | 2.85 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| Nordicbet | 2.85 | 3.10 | 2.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.89 | 3.25 | EV+ 1% 2.58 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+6 %
37 %32 %
2.72 → 2.89
X+3 %
32 %27 %
3.15 → 3.25
2-4 %
39 %34 %
2.68 → 2.58
Over 2,50 %
48 %43 %
2.07 → 2.07
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kalamata
OFI Crete
Kalamata (9–9)
OFI Crete (8–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kalamata
OFI Crete
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kalamata
OFI Crete
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kalamata | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 10 |
| xPoints | 8.3 | 6.4 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 0.86 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| Playing style | Kalamata | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 0.74 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 252 | 406 |
| Passes against per match | 346 | 387 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.9 | 30.1 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Kalamata | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 2.8 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 6.3 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.66 | 0.52 |
| Other | Kalamata | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Ioannis Gelios (Kalamata) | Nikolaos Christogeorgos (OFI Crete) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 21 |
| Save % | 59% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 37% | 69% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Kalamata spelschemaOFI Crete spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kalamata vs OFI Crete according to our model?
The model gives OFI Crete a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kalamata 33%, draw 28%, OFI Crete 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Kalamata vs OFI Crete?
The model expects 1.20 goals (xG) for Kalamata and 1.28 for OFI Crete, 2.48 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Kalamata or draw (1X) 61%, OFI Crete or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.