01 · 2 legs
Safe
- PAOK to win81%
- Over 1.5 goals89%
Greek Super League15°10 km/h
Läs på svenska
PAOKBalanced & physical2–1
Iraklis 1908Low block & directThe model's lean: 1 · PAOK (81%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 5.10 (+61 %)
PAOK vs Iraklis 1908 · Greek Super League
1 · PAOK 81%X 12%7% Iraklis 1908 · 2
81%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for PAOK vs Iraklis 1908 (Greek Super League, Sunday, 18 October 2026): PAOK win 81%, draw 12%, Iraklis 1908 win 7%. Expected goals (xG): PAOK 3.07, Iraklis 1908 0.64. Most likely score: 3-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 45%. Double chance: PAOK or draw 93%, Iraklis 1908 or draw 19%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: PAOK – Iraklis 1908
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
In the clash between PAOK and Iraklis 1908, the most striking figure is the 81% win probability favoring the hosts. This sets the stage for a match likely to be dominated by PAOK's balanced and physical style. The hosts have found the net in ten consecutive league matches, reflecting their attacking momentum. Meanwhile, the visitors, though unbeaten in their last five league encounters, have a low defensive profile that might struggle against PAOK's robust approach.
PAOK's expected goals of 3.07 suggests a high-scoring potential, which aligns with the probabilities for scorelines like 3-0 and 2-0, both at 12%. In contrast, Iraklis's expected goals sit at a mere 0.64, highlighting the uphill battle they face. The home side's historical win rate of 66% in their stadium further underscores their dominance. Although Iraklis have shown resilience recently, their direct style might not penetrate PAOK's defense effectively.
Given the expected goals and the model's numbers, an over 2.5 goals outcome seems almost certain, with a 72% likelihood. The 45% chance of both teams scoring also suggests that if Iraklis manage a goal, it would be against the run of play. Historical head-to-head data is limited, so current form and statistical models weigh more heavily here. The definite edge lies with PAOK, both in terms of performance metrics and the tactical matchup.
For the betting angle, the standout value lies in the over 3.5 goals market, available at odds of 2.48 with Betsafe, rated by the model at a 51% probability. This bet presents a 26% edge, making it an enticing proposition for those looking to capitalize on the expected goal glut in PAOK's favor.
PAOKForm WLWWL
League ranking xG #4xGA #9xT #7xP/match #5Points #4
Key players
- Andrija ZivkovicRWxG 0.42 · xT 0.44
- Dimitris PelkasCAMxG 0.50 · xT 0.13
- Ognjen UgrešićCMxG 0.52 · xT 0.08
Iraklis 1908Form DWDDW
League ranking xG #14xGA #10xT #14xP/match #13Points #7
Key players
- Carles SoriaRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.14
- Eulânio Ângelo Chipela GomesLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.02
- Iván López ÁlvarezLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.10
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: PAOK 81% · Draw 12% · Iraklis 1908 7%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - PAOK ThessalonikiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,65fair 3,67+27 %
MissMatchresultat - IraklisBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 41,37fair 93,37-56 %
MissMatch prediction: PAOK – Iraklis 1908
Predicted score matrix
Iraklis 1908 →
PAOK →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.6%
0–11.4%
0–20.5%
0–30.1%
0–4+0.0%
1
1–07.4%
1–14.9%
1–21.5%
1–30.3%
1–4+0.1%
2
2–011.5%
2–17.4%
2–22.4%
2–30.5%
2–4+0.1%
3
3–011.8%
3–17.6%
3–22.4%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–019.5%
4+–112.4%
4+–24.0%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.3-012%
- 2.2-012%
- 3.4-09%
- 4.3-18%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
3,07–0,64
Both teams to score
45%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,70
19%
217%
321%
419%
5+32%
Under 2,528%
@2.20
Over 2,572%
@1.73EV+18%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- PAOK to win81%
- Over 2.5 goals72%
- Pape Cherif Ndiaye to score36%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score45%
- Over 2.5 goals72%
- Pape Cherif Ndiaye to score36%
- Marco Krainz to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.532% probability@5.10BetsafeEV+61%reference odds
- Over 4.532% probability@5.10NordicbetEV+61%reference odds
- Over 4.532% probability@4.70LeoVegasEV+48%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · PAOK | X | 2 · Iraklis 1908 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 2% 1.25 | 5.25 | 11.00 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 1.29 | 5.15 | 8.70 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 6% 1.30 | 5.20 | 8.50 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 1.29 | 5.15 | 8.70 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 1.28 | 5.78 | 10.98 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+4 %
78 %73 %
1.23 → 1.28
X-3 %
19 %14 %
5.97 → 5.78
2-1 %
11 %6 %
11.04 → 10.98
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- PAOK Thessaloniki have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
- Iraklis 1908 are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- PAOK Thessaloniki win 66% of their home matches all-time (35 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
PAOK
Iraklis 1908
PAOK (13–8)
Iraklis 1908 (6–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
PAOK
Iraklis 1908
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
PAOK
Iraklis 1908
The teams in numbers
| Performance | PAOK | Iraklis 1908 |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 9 |
| xPoints | 10 | 6.2 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 0.58 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.09 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | PAOK | Iraklis 1908 |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.3 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.47 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 6 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 316 | 285 |
| Passes against per match | 359 | 386 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.7 | 24.2 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 30 |
| Set pieces | PAOK | Iraklis 1908 |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 2.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.2 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| Other | PAOK | Iraklis 1908 |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Jiri Pavlenka (PAOK) | Giorgos Athanasiadis (Iraklis 1908) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 25 |
| Save % | 78% | 81% |
| xG prevented | 73% | 58% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: PAOK spelschemaIraklis 1908 spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins PAOK vs Iraklis 1908 according to our model?
The model gives PAOK a 81% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PAOK 81%, draw 12%, Iraklis 1908 7%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 3-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 72% and under at 28%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in PAOK vs Iraklis 1908?
The model expects 3.07 goals (xG) for PAOK and 0.64 for Iraklis 1908, 3.71 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
PAOK or draw (1X) 93%, Iraklis 1908 or draw (X2) 19% and no draw (12) 88%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.