01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Lazio to win66%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Serie AStadio Olimpico, Roma13°11 km/h
Läs på svenska
LazioBalanced & physicalvs
CagliariLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Lazio (66%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 7.22 (+35 %)
Lazio vs Cagliari · Serie A
1 · Lazio 66%X 20%15% Cagliari · 2
66%
20%
15%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lazio vs Cagliari (Serie A, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Lazio win 66%, draw 20%, Cagliari win 15%. Expected goals (xG): Lazio 2.02, Cagliari 0.99. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Lazio or draw 85%, Cagliari or draw 34%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
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Analysis: Lazio – Cagliari
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Since 2021, Lazio has had the upper hand against Cagliari with three wins and a draw in their four meetings. While this head-to-head data is limited and not entirely conclusive, it aligns with the broader form that both teams are exhibiting this season. The hosts enter this fixture on a three-match winning streak, showcasing a potent attack with goals in eight consecutive league outings. Meanwhile, the visitors tend to sit deep and rely on direct play, a strategy that has yielded mixed results.
Analyzing the numbers, Lazio's current momentum is hard to ignore. They've amassed 19 points this season, further bolstered by a superior expected goals tally of 2.02 for this matchup. In contrast, Cagliari's expected goals sit just below 1, reflecting their struggles to consistently penetrate defenses. This disparity suggests the home side's balanced and physical approach could prove too much for the visitors, who have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match.
The model pegs Lazio as clear favorites with a 66% probability of victory, predicting a tightly contested game with a most likely scoreline of 1-1, 2-0, or 2-1. The expected goals imply a lean towards over 2.5 goals, although the margin isn't overwhelming at 58%. Both teams scoring is estimated at 55%, indicating a decent chance of Cagliari finding the net despite Lazio's apparent dominance.
For bettors, the standout angle lies in Lazio's winning odds. With a track record of recent victories and a strong home form, the 66% probability of a win offers a solid value proposition for those looking to back the stronger team.
LazioForm WDWWW
League ranking xG #13xGA #7xT #6xP/match #12Points #2
Key players
- Mattia ZaccagniLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.23
- Nuno TavaresLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
- Reda BelahyaneCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
CagliariForm WWWDL
League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #17xP/match #14Points #8
Key players
- Alessandro RomanoCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
- Yerry MinaCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
- Paul MendyFxG 0.27 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Lazio – Cagliari
Predicted score matrix
Cagliari →
Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.2%
0–14.6%
0–22.4%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–09.6%
1–110.1%
1–24.9%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.0%
2–110.0%
2–24.9%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–06.8%
3–16.7%
3–23.3%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.5%
4+–15.4%
4+–22.7%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.1-010%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
2,02–0,99
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@1.82
Over 2,558%
@2.00EV+16%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Lazio to win66%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Gustav Tang Isaksen to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Gustav Tang Isaksen to score24%
- Yerry Fernando Mina González to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.519% probability@7.22BetsafeEV+35%reference odds
- Over 4.519% probability@7.22NordicbetEV+35%reference odds
- Over 3.536% probability@3.63BetsafeEV+29%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lazio | X | 2 · Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.52 | 4.05 | 6.30 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 3% 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.75 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 1.55 | 4.10 | 6.30 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 11:36
Odds movement
1+5 %
64 %59 %
1.50 → 1.57
X-7 %
25 %20 %
4.30 → 4.00
2-8 %
18 %13 %
6.25 → 5.75
Over 2,5+6 %
52 %47 %
1.85 → 1.95
LeoVegas · 10 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesLazio 3Draw 1Cagliari 0
Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Lazio come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Lazio have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lazio
Cagliari
Lazio (14–4)
Cagliari (6–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lazio
Cagliari
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lazio
Cagliari
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lazio | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 13 |
| xPoints | 9.4 | 8.7 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 0.99 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Lazio | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.57 | 0.26 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 18 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 21 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 385 | 350 |
| Passes against per match | 411 | 545 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.6 | 17.3 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Lazio | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 6.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.57 |
| Other | Lazio | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Christos Mandas (Lazio) | Elia Caprile (Cagliari) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 30 | 30 |
| Save % | 88% | 81% |
| xG prevented | 87% | 75% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Lazio spelschemaCagliari spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lazio vs Cagliari according to our model?
The model gives Lazio a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lazio 66%, draw 20%, Cagliari 15%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Lazio vs Cagliari?
The model expects 2.02 goals (xG) for Lazio and 0.99 for Cagliari, 3.01 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Lazio or draw (1X) 85%, Cagliari or draw (X2) 34% and no draw (12) 80%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.