01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Roma to win67%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Serie ABluenergy Stadium, Udine10°6 km/h
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UdineseBalanced & physicalvs
RomaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Roma (67%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.82 (+21 %)
Udinese vs Roma · Serie A
1 · Udinese 14%X 19%67% Roma · 2
14%
19%
67%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Udinese vs Roma (Serie A, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Udinese win 14%, draw 19%, Roma win 67%. Expected goals (xG): Udinese 0.99, Roma 2.38. Most likely score: 0-2 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Udinese or draw 33%, Roma or draw 86%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
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Analysis: Udinese – Roma
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The current streak is stark: Udinese have lost their last five matches, while Roma remain unbeaten in their last 14 league outings. This clear contrast is reflected in the model, which gives the visitors a commanding 67% chance of victory. Roma's possession-based approach and high press should exploit Udinese's vulnerabilities, especially given the hosts' struggle with 1.8 expected goals against per match.
Historically, this fixture tilts heavily in Roma's favor with seven wins out of the last ten encounters. However, the head-to-head sample size is small, so it weighs less than the season's form and expected goals metrics. Roma's attacking prowess is evident with an expected goals tally of 2.38, significantly higher than Udinese's 0.99, suggesting a comfortable margin for the visitors on paper.
The most likely scorelines point to a 0-2 or 1-2 finish, aligning with the model's over 2.5 goals probability of 65%. Both teams finding the net sits at 57%, yet the real value here lies with Roma. Expect Roma to assert their dominance, capitalizing on Udinese's struggles to extend their unbeaten run.
UdineseForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #9xP/match #18Points #16
Key players
- Jurgen EkkelenkampCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.09
- Mërgim VojvodaRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.20
- Giorgi ChakvetadzeFxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
RomaForm WWDDW
League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #3
Key players
- Bryan CristanteCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.12
- Gianluca ManciniCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.16
- Evan NdickaCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: Udinese – Roma
Predicted score matrix
Roma →
Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.7%
0–17.9%
0–29.7%
0–37.7%
0–4+8.0%
1
1–03.2%
1–18.4%
1–29.6%
1–37.6%
1–4+8.0%
2
2–01.7%
2–14.0%
2–24.8%
2–33.8%
2–4+4.0%
3
3–00.6%
3–11.3%
3–21.6%
3–31.3%
3–4+1.3%
4+
4+–00.2%
4+–10.4%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-210%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.1-18%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.0-38%
Expected goals
0,99–2,38
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,535%
@2.26
Over 2,565%
@1.65EV+8%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Roma to win67%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Donyell Malen to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Donyell Malen to score30%
- Oumar Mickaël Solet Bomawoko to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.525% probability@4.82BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
- Over 4.525% probability@4.82NordicbetEV+21%reference odds
- Over 3.544% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Udinese | X | 2 · Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 5.60 | 4.20 | EV+ 3% 1.55 |
| LeoVegas | 5.25 | 4.30 | EV+ 5% 1.57 |
| Nordicbet | 5.65 | 4.20 | EV+ 5% 1.58 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 14:36
Odds movement
1-12 %
20 %15 %
6.00 → 5.25
X-2 %
25 %20 %
4.40 → 4.30
2+5 %
63 %58 %
1.50 → 1.57
Over 2,5-5 %
59 %54 %
1.70 → 1.61
LeoVegas · 18 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
10 matchesUdinese 2Draw 1Roma 7
Goals: 9–17 (⌀ 2,6)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- AS Roma dominate this fixture historically: 7 wins to 2 in 10 meetings.
- Udinese Calcio have lost 5 in a row.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 14 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Udinese
Roma
Udinese (9–16)
Roma (16–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Udinese
Roma
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Udinese
Roma
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Udinese | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 17 |
| xPoints | 6.9 | 14.1 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.63 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.44 | 0.09 |
| Playing style | Udinese | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| xTA per match | 0.94 | 0.69 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 21 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 405 | 456 |
| Passes against per match | 398 | 356 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.2 | 34.7 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Udinese | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.8 | 2.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.53 |
| Other | Udinese | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Maduka Okoye (Udinese) | Mile Svilar (Roma) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 14 |
| Save % | 66% | 82% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 74% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Udinese spelschemaRoma spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Udinese vs Roma according to our model?
The model gives Roma a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Udinese 14%, draw 19%, Roma 67%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Udinese vs Roma?
The model expects 0.99 goals (xG) for Udinese and 2.38 for Roma, 3.37 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Udinese or draw (1X) 33%, Roma or draw (X2) 86% and no draw (12) 81%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.