Lecce vs Genoa Prediction: Home win 35% (1 Nov 2026)

Serie A1 November 2026Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce14°13 km/h

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LecceLow block & direct

GenoaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Lecce (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 10.04 (+29 %)

1 · Lecce 35%X 32%34% Genoa · 2

35%

32%

34%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lecce vs Genoa (Serie A, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Lecce win 35%, draw 32%, Genoa win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Lecce 1.42, Genoa 1.22. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Lecce or draw 66%, Genoa or draw 65%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Lecce – Genoa

Oscar Nilsson · 24 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Lecce's defense has been porous this season, conceding an average of 1.8 expected goals against per match. Yet, a closer look reveals they're hardly pushovers at home. Their ability to generate 1.3 expected goals per game underscores an offensive determination that might exploit Genoa's own defensive frailties. With Lecce generating more xG than Genoa, the hosts might see more of the ball in threatening areas.

Genoa, on the other hand, bring a mixed bag of results to the table. Their tally of four points so far doesn't tell the whole story, as their expected points suggest they should have done better. They too fit the mold of a low-defense, direct team, which might lead to a chaotic match with both sides looking to hit on the break. Despite this, Genoa's xG per match of 0.83 is notably less than Lecce's, hinting at a struggle to consistently threaten.

The head-to-head record, albeit small with just four matches since 2021, shows a slight edge for Lecce (1W 2D 1L), providing little clarity on any long-standing dominance between the two. More current metrics hint at a slight advantage for Lecce, both in terms of the model's win probabilities and their actual form in the league. Still, the most likely scoreline according to the model is 1-1 — a scenario where both teams find the net but lack the firepower to pull ahead — even though the model's overall lean favors a narrow Lecce win.

Weather considerations aren't a factor here, and with a 49% chance of more than 2.5 goals, this could go either way. Given the percentages, a disciplined bettor might be drawn to Lecce's odds at 35%. Yet, value seekers should note that the model's lean towards a Lecce win might not fully capture Genoa's potential untapped performance. Still, the numbers suggest a tight affair, with a slight edge for Lecce — a 1-0 or 2-1 victory is on the cards.

Lecce

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #14xGA #15xT #14xP/match #16Points #11

Key players

Antonino GalloLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.20
Danilo VeigaRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.21
Tiago GabrielCBxG 0.20 · xT 0.05

Genoa

Form LDLWL

League ranking xG #19xGA #5xT #20xP/match #8Points #17

Key players

Morten FrendrupCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.00
Leo OstigardCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
Mohameth Djibril Ibrahima SowCAMxG 0.02 · xT -0.01

Match prediction: Lecce – Genoa

Predicted score matrix

Genoa →

Lecce →

0–07.5%

0–18.3%

0–25.3%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.9%

1–09.8%

1–112.7%

1–27.5%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.2%

2–18.8%

2–25.4%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.4%

3–14.2%

3–22.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,42–1,22

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.59

Over 2,549%

@2.40EV+18%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Lecce or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Lecce or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Nikola Štulić to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Nikola Štulić to score20%
Morten Wetche Frendrup to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.513% probability@10.04BetsafeEV+29%reference odds
Over 4.513% probability@10.04NordicbetEV+29%reference odds
Over 3.527% probability@4.63BetsafeEV+26%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lecce	X	2 · Genoa
Betsafe	2.72	3.10	2.72
LeoVegas	2.70	EV+ 1% 3.15	2.70
Nordicbet	2.72	EV+ 1% 3.15	2.72

Odds updated 27 Oct, 11:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

37 %32 %

2.65 → 2.70

X-2 %

33 %28 %

3.20 → 3.15

20 %

37 %32 %

2.70 → 2.70

Over 2,5+5 %

44 %39 %

2.20 → 2.30

LeoVegas · 12 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Lecce 1Draw 2Genoa 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lecce

Genoa

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lecce (9–12)

Genoa (5–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lecce

Genoa

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lecce

Genoa

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lecce	Genoa
Points	9	4
xPoints	8.1	9.8
xG per match	1.3	0.83
xGA per match	1.8	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.41	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.45	0.18

Playing style	Lecce	Genoa
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.27
Field tilt	0.35	0.32
xT per match	0.9	0.44
xTA per match	1.3	0.99
Won balls, offensive half	29	23
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.25
Entries into the box per match	10	8
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.71	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.69
Passes per match	278	314
Passes against per match	456	418
Switches of play per match	17.4	18.4
Long balls per match	25	25

Set pieces	Lecce	Genoa
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.01
Corners per match	4.5	4.4
Corners against per match	3.6	4.7
xG per corner	0.07	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.48	0.42

Other	Lecce	Genoa
Throw-in control	0.57	0.65

The goalkeepers	Wladimiro Falcone (Lecce)	Justin Bijlow (Genoa)
Saves	33	19
Save %	73%	61%
xG prevented	50%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lecce

Fixtures, form & tips

Genoa

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Lecce spelschema Genoa spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lecce vs Genoa according to our model?

The model gives Lecce a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lecce 35%, draw 32%, Genoa 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Lecce vs Genoa?

The model expects 1.42 goals (xG) for Lecce and 1.22 for Genoa, 2.64 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Lecce or draw (1X) 66%, Genoa or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 68%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.