01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Brann or draw (X2)64%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Norwegian Eliteserien8°0,3 mm5 km/h
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FredrikstadBalanced & physicalvs
BrannPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Brann (44%)
Fredrikstad vs Brann · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Fredrikstad 32%X 25%44% Brann · 2
32%
25%
44%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fredrikstad vs Brann (Norwegian Eliteserien, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Fredrikstad win 32%, draw 25%, Brann win 44%. Expected goals (xG): Fredrikstad 1.51, Brann 1.59. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Fredrikstad or draw 56%, Brann or draw 68%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Fredrikstad – Brann
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Brann hold the analytical edge, yet 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline: this is a narrow visitors’ lean, not a case for blindly backing the favourite. Fredrikstad vs Brann carries model probabilities of 32%, 25% and 44%, respectively. The draw has genuine weight, while 1-2 at 9% ranks ahead of 2-1 at 8%.
The underlying numbers favour the visitors more clearly than the win percentages do. Their xPoints figure is 28.7 against 24.8, xG per match is 1.9 against 1.2, and xGA is 1.7 against 2.0. That is a meaningful two-way edge: Brann create more and concede less. Their 0.4 xG within 8s of winning the ball also dwarfs Fredrikstad’s 0.18, a relevant mismatch against balanced, physical hosts facing a possession side with a high press.
Still, the three straight losses matter because they complicate the clean statistical case for the visitors. Fredrikstad have scored in 10 consecutive league matches, so the home side have a credible route into this game even if their season process is weaker. The model’s expected-goals split, 1.51 to 1.59, supports a competitive match rather than an away-day stroll.
The head-to-head record since 2021 reads 2W, 0D, 3L for the hosts across 5 matches. It leans Brann, but the sample is small and weighs less than form and expected goals. It should not be used to erase the visitors’ current three-match losing run, nor should that run erase their stronger xG profile.
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%, with both teams to score at 62%. The 1-1 scoreline at 11% is the likeliest individual result, but the broader goal distribution points above the line. Brann to win is the match verdict; over 2.5 is the sharper angle, backed by Fredrikstad’s scoring streak and both sides’ expected-goals numbers.
FredrikstadForm DDDLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #13xT #12xP/match #16Points #11
Key players
- Rocco SheinCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
- Samuel Ruben Leach HolmCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.18
- Daniel EidRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.24
BrannForm LWLLL
League ranking xG #4xGA #8xT #2xP/match #13Points #9
Key players
- Fredrik Pallesen KnudsenCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.07
- Joachim SoltvedtLWBxG 0.20 · xT 0.41
- Denzel De RoeveRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.33
Match prediction: Fredrikstad – Brann
Predicted score matrix
Brann →
Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.8%
0–16.8%
0–25.7%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–06.5%
1–111.1%
1–28.6%
1–34.6%
1–4+2.6%
2
2–05.1%
2–18.2%
2–26.5%
2–33.4%
2–4+2.0%
3
3–02.6%
3–14.1%
3–23.3%
3–31.7%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–12.2%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.2-27%
Expected goals
1,51–1,59
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
–
Over 2,560%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Brann or draw (X2)64%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Kristall Máni Ingason to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Kristall Máni Ingason to score29%
- Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen to be booked19%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesFredrikstad 2Draw 0Brann 3
Goals: 6–8 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Fredrikstad have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
- Brann have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fredrikstad
Brann
Fredrikstad (29–41)
Brann (42–40)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Fredrikstad
Brann
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Fredrikstad
Brann
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Fredrikstad | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 29 | 29 |
| xPoints | 24.8 | 28.7 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.4 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Fredrikstad | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.68 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 1.7 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 23 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 407 | 453 |
| Passes against per match | 434 | 269 |
| Switches of play per match | 28 | 29.2 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Fredrikstad | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 6.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.8 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| Other | Fredrikstad | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Martin Borsheim (Fredrikstad) | Mathias Dyngeland (Brann) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 79 | 40 |
| Save % | 66% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Fredrikstad spelschemaBrann spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Fredrikstad vs Brann according to our model?
The model gives Brann a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fredrikstad 32%, draw 25%, Brann 44%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Fredrikstad vs Brann?
The model expects 1.51 goals (xG) for Fredrikstad and 1.59 for Brann, 3.10 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Fredrikstad or draw (1X) 56%, Brann or draw (X2) 68% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.