01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Molde to win54%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
Norwegian Eliteserien7°0,5 mm6 km/h
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SandefjordPossession controlvs
MoldePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Molde (54%)
Sandefjord vs Molde · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Sandefjord 26%X 20%54% Molde · 2
26%
20%
54%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sandefjord vs Molde (Norwegian Eliteserien, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Sandefjord win 26%, draw 20%, Molde win 54%. Expected goals (xG): Sandefjord 1.40, Molde 2.11. Most likely score: 1-2 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%. Double chance: Sandefjord or draw 46%, Molde or draw 74%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Sandefjord – Molde
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Molde are the right favourite at Sandefjord: the numbers point to a 1-2 away win and Over 2.5 goals, not a home-led reading of this fixture. The model gives the visitors 54%, against 26% for the hosts and 20% for the draw. Its projected goals are 1.40 to 2.11, a meaningful advantage rather than a marginal away lean.
This is a clash of teams comfortable with the ball, but the visitors add a high press to their possession game. That pressure should matter against a home side profiled around possession control. Molde’s 2.1 xG per match stands above Sandefjord’s 1.3, while their 1.3 xGA is well below the hosts’ 1.8. The match-up favours the away attack at both ends.
The table backs it up, though not as strongly as raw points might suggest. Molde have 43 points to Sandefjord’s 24, and the xPoints split is 38.3 to 28.3. That closes the gap a little, yet leaves the same direction intact: the visitors have produced the more sustainable season and earned their favourite status.
The historical angle cuts against that verdict. Since 2021, Sandefjord lead the head-to-head 4W 0D 1L, with 3.0 goals per meeting on average. But five matches is a small sample and weighs less than season form and expected goals. It identifies resistance to a simple away-win narrative, not grounds to make the hosts favourites.
Goals are the cleaner route. Molde have scored in 16 consecutive league matches, and the model makes both teams to score 66% with Over 2.5 at 68%. The 1-2 and 1-1 scorelines sit jointly highest at 9%, before 0-2 at 7%, so there is draw risk around the away case. Still, 1-2 is the most likely scoreline; Over 2.5 goals is the sharpest angle.
SandefjordForm LWDLL
League ranking xG #12xGA #10xT #11xP/match #15Points #13
Key players
- Zinedin SmajlovicCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
- Sebastian Holm MathisenFxG 0.25 · xT 0.03
- Evangelos PatoulidisRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.23
MoldeForm WLDWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #4xP/match #3Points #3
Key players
- Eirik HestadRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.09
- Daniel DagaCDMxG 0.21 · xT 0.04
- Sivert Sira HansenCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Sandefjord – Molde
Predicted score matrix
Molde →
Sandefjord →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.3%
0–16.1%
0–26.7%
0–34.7%
0–4+4.0%
1
1–03.9%
1–19.1%
1–29.3%
1–36.6%
1–4+5.6%
2
2–02.9%
2–16.2%
2–26.5%
2–34.6%
2–4+3.9%
3
3–01.4%
3–12.9%
3–23.0%
3–32.1%
3–4+1.8%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.4%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.9%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-29%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.0-27%
- 4.1-37%
- 5.2-27%
Expected goals
1,40–2,11
Both teams to score
66%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+28%
Under 2,532%
–
Over 2,568%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Molde to win54%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Wolji Jalal Abdullai to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score66%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Wolji Jalal Abdullai to score34%
- Zinedin Smajlović to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesSandefjord 4Draw 0Molde 1
Goals: 11–4 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Sandefjord dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
- Molde have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sandefjord
Molde
Sandefjord (22–31)
Molde (57–36)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sandefjord
Molde
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sandefjord
Molde
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sandefjord | Molde |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 43 |
| xPoints | 28.3 | 38.3 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Sandefjord | Molde |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 0.98 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 399 | 496 |
| Passes against per match | 377 | 312 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.9 | 26.3 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Sandefjord | Molde |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 6.2 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.57 |
| Other | Sandefjord | Molde |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Elias Hadaya (Sandefjord) | Albert Posiadała (Molde) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 83 | 53 |
| Save % | 73% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 55% | 50% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Sandefjord spelschemaMolde spelschema
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sandefjord vs Molde according to our model?
The model gives Molde a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sandefjord 26%, draw 20%, Molde 54%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Sandefjord vs Molde?
The model expects 1.40 goals (xG) for Sandefjord and 2.11 for Molde, 3.50 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Sandefjord or draw (1X) 46%, Molde or draw (X2) 74% and no draw (12) 80%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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