Norwegian Eliteserien6°4 km/h

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    HamarkamerateneHamarkamerateneLow block & direct
    vs
    SarpsborgSarpsborgCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Sarpsborg (40%)

    Hamarkameratene vs Sarpsborg · Norwegian Eliteserien

    1 · Hamarkameratene 31%X 29%40% Sarpsborg · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hamarkameratene vs Sarpsborg (Norwegian Eliteserien, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Hamarkameratene win 31%, draw 29%, Sarpsborg win 40%. Expected goals (xG): Hamarkameratene 1.39, Sarpsborg 1.69. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Hamarkameratene or draw 60%, Sarpsborg or draw 69%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Hamarkameratene – Sarpsborg

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    40% sits with Sarpsborg, against 31% for Hamarkameratene and 29% for the draw. The model points away, even if 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline at 11%; 1-2 follows at 9%. Sarpsborg 08 have the stronger underlying case, and the likely call is 1-2.

    The visitors lead on points, 31 to 26, and more clearly on xPoints, 35.5 to 28.2. Their 1.6 xG per match beats 1.3, while HamKam’s 1.9 xGA per match leaves room for a counter-attacking, crossing side to create chances. The hosts’ low defence and direct approach can keep this scrappy, but it also hands territory to the better process.

    Sarpsborg 08 hold a 4 wins to 1 edge in five meetings since 2021, with 3.8 goals per meeting. Still, that is a small sample and weighs less than current form and expected goals. The 60% model lean is over 2.5 goals, alongside 62% for both teams to score. Boring, well-supported bets pay the bills: over 2.5 is the sharpest angle.

    HamarkamerateneHamarkameratene
    Form LLWLL
    League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #15xP/match #14Points #12
    Key players
    • Henrik UdahlFxG 0.43 · xT 0.02
    • Ethan Amundsen-DayCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
    • Loris MettlerRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.14
    SarpsborgSarpsborg
    Form DLWLW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #7xP/match #6Points #7
    Key players
    • Aimar SherCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
    • Sondre SorliRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
    • Bjørn Inge UtvikCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.14

    Match prediction: Hamarkameratene – Sarpsborg

    Predicted score matrix

    Sarpsborg →
    Hamarkameratene →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.9%
    0–17.4%
    0–26.6%
    0–33.7%
    0–4+2.3%
    1
    1–06.0%
    1–111.1%
    1–29.1%
    1–35.2%
    1–4+3.2%
    2
    2–04.4%
    2–17.5%
    2–26.4%
    2–33.6%
    2–4+2.2%
    3
    3–02.1%
    3–13.5%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–01.0%
    4+–11.6%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-17%
    4. 4.0-17%
    5. 5.0-27%
    Expected goals
    1,39–1,69
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    –
    Over 2,560%
    –

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Sarpsborg or draw (X2)69%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.77

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Sarpsborg or draw (X2)69%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Daniel Seland Karlsbakk to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Daniel Seland Karlsbakk to score27%
    • Luc Katja Anne Mares to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Hamarkameratene 1Draw 0Sarpsborg 4
    Goals: 8–11 (⌀ 3,8)

    Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

    Key facts

    • Sarpsborg 08 dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.8 goals per meeting on average.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hamarkameratene
    Sarpsborg
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Hamarkameratene (33–51)
    Sarpsborg (30–35)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Hamarkameratene
    Martin Gjone: 169 passningar, xT 0.28GjoneFredrik Sjolstad: 169 passningar, xT 0.18SjolstadAleksander Andresen: 141 passningar, xT 0.61AndresenLuc Mares: 134 passningar, xT -0.04MaresMarcus Sandberg: 129 passningar, xT 0.4SandbergSnorre Strand Nilsen: 123 passningar, xT 0.13NilsenPatrick Metcalfe: 100 passningar, xT 0.2MetcalfeJoão Paulo Rodrigues Barros: 87 passningar, xT 0.1BarrosEthan Amundsen-Day: 81 passningar, xT 0.09Amundsen-DayLoris Mettler: 59 passningar, xT -0.01MettlerDanilo Andrés Al Saed Alvarado: 44 passningar, xT 0.62Alvarado
    Sarpsborg
    Bjørn Inge Utvik: 213 passningar, xT 0.54UtvikOlaus Jair Skarsem: 203 passningar, xT 0.83SkarsemAnders Hiim: 165 passningar, xT 0.33HiimEirik Wichne: 158 passningar, xT 0.94WichneSigurd Rosted: 154 passningar, xT 0.4RostedAimar Sher: 153 passningar, xT 0.86SherMarius Lode: 138 passningar, xT 0.32LodePeter Reinhardsen: 128 passningar, xT 0.08ReinhardsenSander Christiansen: 126 passningar, xT 0.13ChristiansenLeander Oy: 119 passningar, xT 0.17OySondre Sorli: 114 passningar, xT 0.65Sorli
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Hamarkameratene
    Martin Gjone: 169 passningar, xT 0.28GjoneFredrik Sjolstad: 169 passningar, xT 0.18SjolstadAleksander Andresen: 141 passningar, xT 0.61AndresenLuc Mares: 134 passningar, xT -0.04MaresMarcus Sandberg: 129 passningar, xT 0.4SandbergSnorre Strand Nilsen: 123 passningar, xT 0.13NilsenPatrick Metcalfe: 100 passningar, xT 0.2MetcalfeJoão Paulo Rodrigues Barros: 87 passningar, xT 0.1BarrosEthan Amundsen-Day: 81 passningar, xT 0.09Amundsen-DayLoris Mettler: 59 passningar, xT -0.01MettlerDanilo Andrés Al Saed Alvarado: 44 passningar, xT 0.62Alvarado
    Sarpsborg
    Bjørn Inge Utvik: 213 passningar, xT 0.54UtvikOlaus Jair Skarsem: 203 passningar, xT 0.83SkarsemAnders Hiim: 165 passningar, xT 0.33HiimEirik Wichne: 158 passningar, xT 0.94WichneSigurd Rosted: 154 passningar, xT 0.4RostedAimar Sher: 153 passningar, xT 0.86SherMarius Lode: 138 passningar, xT 0.32LodePeter Reinhardsen: 128 passningar, xT 0.08ReinhardsenSander Christiansen: 126 passningar, xT 0.13ChristiansenLeander Oy: 119 passningar, xT 0.17OySondre Sorli: 114 passningar, xT 0.65Sorli

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHamarkamerateneSarpsborg
    Points2631
    xPoints28.235.5
    xG per match1.31.6
    xGA per match1.91.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.20.15
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.290.22
    Playing styleHamarkamerateneSarpsborg
    Build-up efficiency0.370.36
    Field tilt0.320.42
    xT per match0.851.2
    xTA per match1.51.2
    Won balls, offensive half2223
    Pressing intensity0.250.25
    Pressing efficiency0.240.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.26
    Entries into the box per match1116
    Entries into the box against1918
    Pass completion %0.760.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.69
    Passes per match349339
    Passes against per match443413
    Switches of play per match2630.6
    Long balls per match3736
    Set piecesHamarkamerateneSarpsborg
    xG from free kicks0.050.06
    Corners per match45.8
    Corners against per match5.55.4
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.40.48
    First touch, defensive corners %0.540.69
    OtherHamarkamerateneSarpsborg
    Throw-in control0.710.73
    The goalkeepersMarcus Sandberg (Hamarkameratene)Leander Oy (Sarpsborg)
    Saves8748
    Save %65%68%
    xG prevented43%48%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Hamarkameratene
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Sarpsborg
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Hamarkameratene spelschemaSarpsborg spelschema

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hamarkameratene vs Sarpsborg according to our model?

    The model gives Sarpsborg a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hamarkameratene 31%, draw 29%, Sarpsborg 40%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Hamarkameratene vs Sarpsborg?

    The model expects 1.39 goals (xG) for Hamarkameratene and 1.69 for Sarpsborg, 3.09 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Hamarkameratene or draw (1X) 60%, Sarpsborg or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 71%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.